I was sitting with some friends and students in the outer western suburbs of Sydney the other day. We were chatting about the High Court’s decision on the Malaysia Solution and offshore processing of refugees.
The general feeling was that it was about time someone demanded that Australia meet its international obligations and stop dumping them onto other countries. While there was not much sympathy for Gillard, nor was there any support for Tony Abbott’s posturing.
Someone actually quoted their Greek grandmother, who compares Greeks and Italians - saying, “they are the same, but different”. My question: “Would you vote for Tony Abbott if an election was held tomorrow?” was met with a resounding ‘no’. So is Gillard finished?
A few years ago, I wrote an article refuting the popular belief that a government is only as good as its Opposition. Rather, I argued, an Opposition is only as good as a government allows them to be.
If we look at the Abbott Opposition, there is little there to feel confident about. Tony Abbott seems to lack any understanding of basic economics, and according to his own words, we should not really believe a word he says.
While I like Joe Hockey, he is the very definition of policy on the run. This was highlighted with his quip that he would close down the Department of Climate Change without actually realising what he said.
Barnaby Joyce and the Nationals are not sure if they want to be the protectionist party and when it comes to property rights for farmers, they have much more common with the Greens and Alan Jones than with the liberalist ideals of the Liberals.
We then have the fringe elements of the right: Cory Bernardi who seems to find hanging out with xenophobic politicians the solution to ethnic tensions rather than realising it exasperates them, and Scott Morrison who has urged colleagues to take advantage of anti-Muslim feelings.
The Liberals, if they were in charge during the GFC, argue that they would have been tight on the budget, failing to understand the nature of economic cycles and the financial implications that follow.
If we size up the Opposition then, there is not much talent there. The reason they look so good is because the Government is looking so bad.
Despite what almost everyone else is saying, I think Gillard can win the next election based on three premises: The first is that things cannot get much worse; the second is that the Abbott Opposition has little vision on how to govern and does not represent an alternative government; and third, two years is a long time in politics (just remember how quickly Rudd became a dud).
So what does Gillard have to do to win the next election? The first step is to return to the ALP platform in which all policy should be based: they are a social democratic party with strong history of social justice that underlies any national interest.
This would mean dealing with the Greens rather than the Opposition when it comes to refugee policy.
Onshore processing with a minimal mandatory detention period would show our neighbours that we take our responsibilities seriously and is more likely to lead to a regional compromise. As John Menandue from the Centre for Policy Development noted, there is more to refugee policy than locking up refugees.
The Opposition response can be predicted - and the Government should stare them down.
While the Government has now ruled that out, a deal with the Greens is still more likely to lead to an outcome the ALP base will find palatable - not something that mimics the Opposition.
The second would be to explain the carbon tax and how it can be a small step towards dealing with climate change and also help promote the Australian manufacturing sector. Those who argue that a carbon tax will kill manufacturing are arguing for the status quo - and we all know how that is panning out. The carbon tax can redirect investment towards high-end renewable manufacturing.
On its own, a carbon tax is not enough. It should also be accompanied by an industry and innovation plan, as well as a revision on the mining tax more in line with the Henry Review, and the upcoming Tax Summit is just the place for it to happen.
Additionally, monies collected would give Australia the funds for a sovereign wealth fund. This would take pressure off the Australian dollar and would not only help manufacturing, but also the education, tourist and service sectors.
The final step would be for the Government to go back to its grassroots and listen to them on issues ranging from gay marriage to political donations and the pre-selection process.
All this would give the government a foundation on which to build. In contrast what they have now is a series of policies with no intellectual thread. This is what makes both the Government and the Opposition look so flimsy.
The next election will be won by the party who stands for something - and there is no reason why that cannot be Gillard. But as we have seen with Gillard’s decision to pursue a deal with the Opposition when it comes to the Malaysia Solution, this realisation is not going to come any time soon.
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