Follow the money: no result, but a number of winners
Three days after the election and punters will no doubt be biting their nails until the independents strike a deal with Gillard or Abbott to form a government. We’re still holding millions of dollars on the election result, and they could be waiting a week or so to be paid out on a head-to-head bet.
What’s clear is that punters who backed a hung parliament at $6.00 will be among the only ones celebrating at this stage.
With the wash up then showing about 73 seats in the bag for Labor and as many as 73 for the Coalition, punters didn’t take much of a rest after a late night awaiting a result on Saturday.
On Sunday morning they came in strongly behind Tony Abbott to seize the Lodge, with Sportingbet immediately taking two bets of $5000 on them at $1.50 and $1.45.
The Coalition saw strong betting throughout the day as punters assumed that that the conservative independents – Oakeshott, Windsor and Katter – would line up with the Tony Abbott to form government.
Yesterday, with Labor looking better in Denison, and a distinct possibility in Hasluck, punters headed back toward Labor, who shortened into $2.15 while the Coalition slid to $1.65 – but not before we took a few more big bets on the Coalition with $26,000 at $1.55 and $10,000 at $1.60.
Right now, the two parties are almost neck and neck with Labor slightly better backed to form government at $1.85 and the Coalition paying $1.90.
The election outcome is in doubt but there were a number of big results in some marginal seats that may have surprised voters and the media, but were called weeks out by punters.
A few weeks back we saw odds on a number of Labor seats in NSW and Queensland slide the Coalition’s way despite the government being strongly backed in the head-to-head market.
Now it appears punters got it right in Macarthur, Macquarie and – once again – in Bennelong, where Labor was hurt when the announcement of the Parramatta-Epping rail link backfired.
Punters probably got it most wrong in the seat of Robertson on the Central Coast, where there was the big upset. Liberal Darren Jameson had shortened into $1.20 ahead of polling day following big money coming in behind him, yet lost to Labor’s Deb O’Neill.
In Queensland punters again picked a number of seats where Labor would be ejected well out from the poll, including Dawson, Flynn, Leichardt, Longman and Forde.
Punters have a habit of getting elections right and this was no exception.
Although Labor ran pronounced favourites, in the last 24 hours we saw the Coalition backed from $3.60 to $2.60 and a hung parliament backed from $3.50 to $2.80 showing punters thought it was going to be as close as it has turned out to be.
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