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Follow the money: Labor’s stunning markets surge

Michael Sullivan

by Michael Sullivan

13 Aug 05:30am

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Filed under: Betting, Election 2010, Politics

27 comments

Cast your mind back a week punters, and remember when barely a soul backed Labor for an entire fortnight of the campaign and the Coalition were tipped to become favourite by the weekend.

The odds are getting lower… lower… Julia Gillard at the Rooty Hill RSL this week.

But regardless of how hard Tony Abbott has pedalled, the Coalition’s sprint toward the finish has not been enough. The Labor ship has righted itself and punters must reckon that will be enough for them to sail back into government.

This week, the high rollers have moved in with big bets on Labor, and have backed them into strong favourite to win the August 21 election. And although we’re still a week and a half from the big day, we know from experience that once these bets are in the result is largely beyond question.

It started on Monday. We took a series of bets totalling more than $100,000 on Labor, which brought them from $1.62 into $1.50.

Then on Tuesday came the big one: $200,000 on Labor to win at $1.50 and the money has kept coming pushing them into their current quote of $1.42.

Since last Friday however, the Coalition’s fortunes have almost slid back to where they were at the start of the campaign, as they moved from $2.28 back out to $2.75.

All the water Labor took on board following the knifing, the leaks and distractions from former leaders seems to have been bailed out, following some furious bucket work by Labor Campaign HQ.

It is a tortured metaphor but we’re in unchartered political waters here, with a Labor leader who was installed six weeks ago and an opposition leader who few thought could win an election.

The serious punters are saying that although Labor have had a problematic campaign, Julia Gillard is doing a good enough job to get them over the line and Tony Abbott’s best has brought his team close enough.

But it is not all good news for Labor. Today we’re seeing that NSW has the potential to be a real nightmare for the government, following Julia Gillard’s bruising encounter with Western Sydney-siders last night at the town hall meeting held at Rooty Hill RSL.

The flood of anger at the NSW government for the state of their roads, trains and hospitals doesn’t look like it can be dammed until the state poll in March 2011 and could cause some real damage on 21 August.

Our new market allows punters to pick how many seats Labor will lose in NSW. Currently they’re looking like losing two out of a possible 28, an option which is paying $2.25. But punters can get $2.75 on a loss of three seats, $4.50 on a loss of four seats and $7.50 on five.

Betting on our marginal seats markets shows that Robertson and Macarthur are the two most likely Labor losses but anything could happen in the lead-up to 21 August. It will be one to watch.

The Sportingbet Decider provides a definitive form guide for 55 seats in play at the 2010 federal election; including seat history, profiles of the main candidates, location and an analysis of key issues that will affect the outcome.

Most commented

27 comments

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    • dead to me says:

      06:54am | 13/08/10

      People need to see that Labor is bad government and need to vote them out.

      Reply

    • Sam says:

      09:23am | 13/08/10

      @dead to me, What you mean is, YOU NEED “People need to see that Labor is bad government and need to vote them out.”.
      As a dead-set born to rule lib supporter and probable staffer, you spend much of your time trying to impart that message. What people really need to do is to ignore your lies andmake up their own mind then vote accordingly.

    • Sam 2 says:

      12:50pm | 13/08/10

      People need to see that Labor is bad government and need to vote them out. I second that motion smile

    • Housewife49 says:

      08:01am | 13/08/10

      People can make up their own minds on how they’ll vote, thank you.

      On facts.

      Not Liberal smear, spin and fibs.

      Reply

    • Texas Millionaire says:

      08:29am | 13/08/10

      You wrote Liberal when you clearly meant Labor - afterall the ALP tactic is to lie and hope the stupid people buy it. They obviously have yours. On the other hand, Abbott is a class act who is too honest for his own good.

    • Sam says:

      09:36am | 13/08/10

      No Tex, the housewife meant what she said. Why is it you rusted on libbers appear to have such short memories when it comes to the party of thugs?. Remember Abbott abusing a dying man? Howabout his campaign and fundraising to get Pauline Hansen arrested? maybe you remember the fervent support of the entire party for work choices? or maybe Ruddock’s relentless persuing of the innocent indian doctor Haneef?
      And you say “ALP tactic is to lie and hope the stupid people buy it.”, and this little gem,  “Abbott is a class act who is too honest for his own good.”. That really breaks me up. You should do a gig as a stand-up comic with that material, you would bring the house down.

    • Frank says:

      10:11am | 13/08/10

      The ALP zombies haven’t learnt a thing from the Rudd con job and are falling head over heels for the Julia con job. Theres one born every minute…..........

    • Joan says:

      10:41am | 13/08/10

      Sounds like you have truly lapped up airbrushed, supermodel Gillard magazine spin. in buckets

    • Reg says:

      09:43am | 13/08/10

      Don’t you love the way they hang a headline on “could.”  It’s no different to my observation that Tony Abbott shows the early indications of being punch drunk from his boxing days. Take a look at that photo of him facing off the cowardly Latham. Only thing missing is the snot wiping reflex. smile

    • Just saying says:

      10:00am | 13/08/10

      @BobM, I suggest you read your own link, the article barely if at all mentions Julia. It is all about Anna Bligh. Yes, she is immensely unpopular in Qld. and seats are definately at risk, but if you looked a little closer to the facts you would know there is a lot of disunity in the Qld. LNP, caused by a number of factors, including expulsions, defections and rorted expenses.

    • john Williams says:

      08:28am | 13/08/10

      Michael Sullivan , you would make a great spruiker for a bookie come next Melbourne Cup Day.
      Oh, wait…you are already a spruiker for SportBet.
      CEO in fact.
      So you well know:
      Bookies odds on MC Day NEVER point to the winner.
      Bookies love the odds favourites…that is how they make their money.
      No real bookie would offer realistic odds on a two-horse race.
      Unions facing a minimum $30,000 per 30 seconds for a TV ad might feel tempted to drop 7 seconds worth (>$200,000) on a Centrebet / Sportbet in the hope of stealing the election by the Rope-A-Dope method of fooling the gullible into accepting the inevitable and voting for the “favourite”.
      Disclaimer: I placed a $350 to $100 and a $380 to $100 on the Coalition.

      Reply

    • Hoffbrau says:

      09:13am | 13/08/10

      just out of interest…
      if $30,000 buys 30 seconds of advertising, how does “>$200,000” equate to 7 seconds worth?

    • Just another tipster says:

      10:14am | 13/08/10

      John Williams, a tip for you. Election campaigns are waged to influence the swinging voters in the marginal electorates, not the rusted-ons who avidly follow these blogs, or the punters who follow the betting odds.
      Another tip. I have actually been watching the betting odds leading up to the last few elections and they proved to be ‘on the money’. Michael Sullivan’s real target is the gullable mug who are attracted to the longer odds, so don’t feel too cocky about your bets until the 21st.

    • Sam says:

      10:18am | 13/08/10

      @Hoffbrau, it sounds like more of the Abbott/Hockey accounting.
      Don’t you just love it?

    • Freeman says:

      08:59am | 13/08/10

      I’d make a bet on a hung parliment if any of the agencies were offering one.

      Reply

    • Joe P says:

      10:05am | 13/08/10

      I love right wing rants, you guys get so cross when you lose, it is very funny to see how outraged you are by reality. The Liberal train wreck is not the fault of the faithful, take heart. Malcolm would have had a real shot at winning this election and would have provided better oposition. But that was not to be, remember that cliche from the sporting professions, there’s always next year…

      Reply

    • Joan says:

      10:48am | 13/08/10

      If Mal had been leader, Liberals would have been nowhere near winning line, Rudd would still be PM , with Gillard running last having failed at knifing trick.

    • Bearman79 says:

      10:17am | 13/08/10

      Give we have just over a week left, and alot can happen in 7 days.  I think many people are holding their breath for the biggest Labor leak yet, the campaign HQ have got to be freaking out about it.  Rather than betting on the outcome i’d say it would be more fun betting on what the next ALP leak will be…

      250:1 - Gillard is not from Wales, but Mars (the “ranga” planet).
      20:1 - Gillard had an affair with Hawke
      10:1 - Gillard tried to lure Barnaby Joyce to the ALP
      2:1 -  A memo from Swan requesting 1 “Backstabbing” brand knife is found on his desk next to a picture of Gillard.

      Reply

    • Sam says:

      04:12pm | 13/08/10

      Seriously Bearman, nobody is ever going to lure Barnaby Joyce away from the right. He is far too valuable to the left where he is. So is Abbott when his gag is removed, as it will be after August 21.

    • Steven Kaye says:

      11:13am | 13/08/10

      Michael Sullivan, you and your ilk are a blight on our culture and society. I know that Governments around Australia make a tidy sum from gambling but they should at the very least outlaw betting on elections. It’s a corruption of the democratic process and is open to abuse by parties who wish to manipulate the outcome of an election campaign, this recent splurge on Labor being a case in point. Unions bet heavily on the ALP, the bookies dutifully slash the odds, the news headlines scream “huge plunge on Labor”, and the voters think they’re are way in front. Happens all the time and anyone who thinks it doesn’t is extraordinarily naive.

      Reply

    • Bobster says:

      11:07pm | 13/08/10

      Works well then. Why don’t the Libs just do the same thing if it’s so effective.

    • Against the Man says:

      02:38pm | 13/08/10

      LAbor will gamble away our future. It may already have.

      Reply

    • dw says:

      04:59pm | 13/08/10

      Am i the only one who finds it incongruent that the CEO of a betting agency is writing persuasive commentary on the outcome of the election.

      Not only that, the writer tells us (unquoted) why the punters are betting the way they are ie: “The serious punters are saying….” as if they are doing some sort of exit interview after all bets are made. Bad journalism and just a bad smell overall.

      In the end, the person (?) who bet $200,000 doesn’t have 200,000 votes. Why should this bet settle the outcome?

      Reply

    • David C says:

      05:25pm | 13/08/10

      My first reaction to reading this was that has got to be Labor/unions placing those bets.

      Reply

    • nosthow says:

      08:04pm | 13/08/10

      Labor will firm even more as election date approaches then bolt the election in ! Poor old Tones will be as stuffed as the proverbial Christmas goose ! Goodbye Tony !

      Reply

    • Bobster says:

      11:11pm | 13/08/10

      The closer we get to August 21, the more Young Liberals spam news.com.au and The Punch.

      Reply
 
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