Follow the money: Labor’s stunning markets surge
Cast your mind back a week punters, and remember when barely a soul backed Labor for an entire fortnight of the campaign and the Coalition were tipped to become favourite by the weekend.
But regardless of how hard Tony Abbott has pedalled, the Coalition’s sprint toward the finish has not been enough. The Labor ship has righted itself and punters must reckon that will be enough for them to sail back into government.
This week, the high rollers have moved in with big bets on Labor, and have backed them into strong favourite to win the August 21 election. And although we’re still a week and a half from the big day, we know from experience that once these bets are in the result is largely beyond question.
It started on Monday. We took a series of bets totalling more than $100,000 on Labor, which brought them from $1.62 into $1.50.
Then on Tuesday came the big one: $200,000 on Labor to win at $1.50 and the money has kept coming pushing them into their current quote of $1.42.
Since last Friday however, the Coalition’s fortunes have almost slid back to where they were at the start of the campaign, as they moved from $2.28 back out to $2.75.
All the water Labor took on board following the knifing, the leaks and distractions from former leaders seems to have been bailed out, following some furious bucket work by Labor Campaign HQ.
It is a tortured metaphor but we’re in unchartered political waters here, with a Labor leader who was installed six weeks ago and an opposition leader who few thought could win an election.
The serious punters are saying that although Labor have had a problematic campaign, Julia Gillard is doing a good enough job to get them over the line and Tony Abbott’s best has brought his team close enough.
But it is not all good news for Labor. Today we’re seeing that NSW has the potential to be a real nightmare for the government, following Julia Gillard’s bruising encounter with Western Sydney-siders last night at the town hall meeting held at Rooty Hill RSL.
The flood of anger at the NSW government for the state of their roads, trains and hospitals doesn’t look like it can be dammed until the state poll in March 2011 and could cause some real damage on 21 August.
Our new market allows punters to pick how many seats Labor will lose in NSW. Currently they’re looking like losing two out of a possible 28, an option which is paying $2.25. But punters can get $2.75 on a loss of three seats, $4.50 on a loss of four seats and $7.50 on five.
Betting on our marginal seats markets shows that Robertson and Macarthur are the two most likely Labor losses but anything could happen in the lead-up to 21 August. It will be one to watch.
The Sportingbet Decider provides a definitive form guide for 55 seats in play at the 2010 federal election; including seat history, profiles of the main candidates, location and an analysis of key issues that will affect the outcome.
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