They say a week is a long time in politics, so the two years until the 2012 US presidential election is practically an eternity.

However, even a casual glance at news from Washington proves the race to the White House is already well under way.
Former Vice President Dick Cheney attacked President Barack Obama last week, explaining why he believed Obama will be a one-term president.
Disagreeing with Dick isn’t hard, so here are five reasons Obama will be re-elected:
1. He’s getting things done
In the last six weeks Obama has got his political mojo back in a big way. Despite his party losing control of the House of Representatives in November, he succeeded in repealing the controversial “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” policy banning gay and lesbians soldiers from serving openly, he negotiated the ratification of the START security treaty with Russia and kept his shirt in brokering a deal with Republicans over Bush-era tax cuts. Add that to his health care reforms and other legislative victories, and his record is strong.
The US public has given him a 78 per cent approval rating for his handling of the Arizona shootings and commentators have called his speech for the victims the best since his breakthrough 2004 address to the Democratic National Convention. His overall approval ratings are going up as well, although admittedly they remain in the low 50s. Yesterday’s State of the Union address, which focused on the economy and innovation, was the unofficial kick off to Obama’s re-election campaign.
2. Incumbency
The power of presidential incumbency is a force to reckoned with. Since the 22nd Amendment to the US Constitution was passed in 1947 to limit presidents to 8 years in the White House, only three have lost re-election when seeking a second term. Arguably, Gerald Ford in 1976 and George H.W. Bush in 1992 both lost because of factors outside their control. Ford was tainted by his predecessor, Richard Nixon, and Bush was weakened by the third-party candidacy of Ross Perot. Jimmy Carter failed fairly successfully in the tasks of the job and got trounced by Ronald Reagan in 1980.
In 2008 there was no incumbent in the race, but whomever the Republicans nominate will have to beat the vast force of the White House machine and the dynamic Obama campaign team. His loss of control of the House of Representatives, what Obama called a “shellacking”, likely won’t matter. Bill Clinton recovered from his own drubbing in 1994 and in Ronald Reagan carried 49 states two years after his party lost 26 seats in the House in 1982. The Republicans will need luck to gain momentum on Obama.
3. The Palin factor
While she hasn’t officially announced if she is running for President, Sarah Palin clearly isn’t planning on leaving the national stage. She is loved by her supporters and fascinating for the media, but she is not a serious contender. Commentators are poking fun at Palin’s two-F press strategy: Facebook and Fox News. If she were to run, she would have to face up to thousands of interviews, as well as rally the GOP base and win independents.
A recent Gallup poll conducted after the Arizona tragedy found her approval ratings at their lowest levels since she gained prominence in 2008. Only 38 percent of Americans have a favourable opinion of her while, while 53 percent have an unfavourable view. Her support lies in the Tea Party wing of the Republican Party, and while it is not insignificant, she has yet to be embraced by the party as a whole. Obama would love it if the Republicans nominated Palin, but she would be a rogue candidate in every sense of the word.
4. There is no obvious GOP nominee
Palin aside, how many people have ever heard of Tim Pawlenty, Bobby Jindal or Jon Hunstman? These are the men lining up for their party’s nomination. In addition to former Speaker of the House New Gingrich and former governors Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney, the GOP has a long list with no obvious nominee. Romney is considered by many to be the front-runner, but his Mormon faith and prior support for universal healthcare might prove difficult with the conservative base. If Obama can get back even a small part of his historic 2008 campaign spirit, the Republicans will need to bring their big hitters to try and beat him.
5. Obama’s new team
With an eye to rebuilding his poll numbers, Obama has already overhauled his White House team and is rapidly building his re-election effort. Outgoing staff like Press Secretary Robert Gibbs and Senior Counselor David Axelrod were essential to building the original Obama movement and will now focus on the re-election bid from Chicago.
Incoming Chief of Staff, Bill Daley, has been picked as an experienced hand at creating jobs and finding success in the chaotic world of Washington politics. The Obama White House knows that as the economy improves, so will Obama’s approval ratings. With 10 percent unemployment and an exploding deficit, the economy will be their number one priority. Expect to see more focus on the domestic economy, and less on symbolism and historic reforms.
There is truth in the old adage that when things are bad, voters blame the president. New Speaker John Boehner’s single word strategy, “no”, is about to face its biggest test. In the two years since George W Bush and Dick Cheney left Washington, much has changed. As Americans rethink the tone of their political conversation and Obama gains more experience, the 2012 election is a delicious prospect for wonks the world over.
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