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Election 2010: Make your predictions

Paul Colgan

by Paul Colgan

19 Aug 01:00pm

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Filed under: Election 2010, Julia Gillard, Polls, Tony Abbott

212 comments

OK Punchers, it’s crystal ball time. Below I’ve listed five reasons why this election is such a squeaker. The video below involving a severed arm being buried on a beach and spat upon to look into the future might be as good a way as any to help predict what’s going to happen on Saturday. But we’re looking for you to have a go at it anyway in the comments. Who will win, and by how many seats?

Punch editor David Penberthy wrote this week why he thinks the Coalition will win. The prevailing view from commentators is that Julia Gillard and the Labor party will win but lose some skin on the way through - maybe a dozen seats, but not enough to be totally turfed out. ALP campaign spokesman Chris Bowen said this morning he believed it would go down to the wire. Here are five reasons why there is so much talk about the balls being still up in the air.

1. A lot of people are yet to make up their minds. There are hundreds of thousands of voters who will make their decision in the next 48 hours, and some who will only decide in the polling booth. At the second people’s forum in Brisbane last night, dozens of people in the audience kept their hands in their laps when asked at the end of the night if they had made a decision. And they had spent an hour listening in person to the two party leaders. If these kinds of late deciders break heavily for either party it will be pivotal.

2. There hasn’t been a late game-changer. (Yet.) In 2007 there was the Lindsay pamphlet scandal, which John Howard would later say turned opinion against the Liberals in Sydney that it cost him his own seat. In 2004 there were the fatal optics of Mark Latham’s handshake from hell plus the disastrous backfiring of his logging policy which saw Howard being greated with rapture by Tasmanian unionists. All of the chaos in this campaign was at the start with the damaging leaks against Julia Gillard.

3. Voters are angry about a lot of things, but it’s not translating into a mood for a change in government. This could be seen as a failure of the Coalition campaign. Liberal Party director Brian Loughnane has been under fire from within his own ranks for not exploiting the rancour within the ALP in campaign ads.

4. Published polls have Labor leading by a nose nationally, but it’s no guide to the outcome.Newspoll has Labor with lead of a few points, but state-by-state polls are showing highly variable voting intentions in different parts of the country. With no indication that a national swing is on the cards it will boil down to close combat in marginal seats, mainly in NSW and Queensland. The Coalition’s problem is that what’s showing in the published polls is there just aren’t enough seats really at play to get them over the line, especially if Labor picks off a few seats in South Australia and Victoria.

5. The devil you know… Many voters remain unsure about Tony Abbott and he is running out of time to convince them. Many see him, if you like, as the the evil of two lessers.

So over to you and again say who will win, and by how many seats. Explanations for your predictions more than welcome, and there are bonus points for lists of seats that will change hands.

Most commented

427Australia, you have nothing to fear but fear itself
375There's no one Thomson won't burn to save his skin
313Thomson didn't answer the question everyone is asking
304Animal experiments won't cure me from cancer
262Who murdered the Arts degree?
246A big day for Thomson, who thus far is guilty of nothing...
231South Australia. It's the middle bottom bit.
231Craig Thomson speaks. Meanwhile, in Australia...

212 comments

Show oldest | newest first

    • Brett says:

      01:12pm | 19/08/10

      Although I predict a labour victory, they will not ‘win’. The true winner of this election will be ‘The Greens’, I am sure they will control the senate, which is probably not a bad thing!!

      Reply

    • Tony of Poorakistan says:

      05:29pm | 19/08/10

      NSW - bloodshed. Libs to pick up a few seats.
      QLD - ditto. Rudd will retain his.
      SA -  Libs to pick up Adelaide
      NT - Libs pick up Solomon
      WA - more bloodshed, Labor lose by record numbers
      Vic - Libs pick up Deakin, possibly Corangamite as well

    • Tom says:

      08:16pm | 19/08/10

      I think the Aussie public may have realised that the federal Labor is based on the NSW model. The spin, the faceless men, the spin, the union drones, the spin, the promises, the lack of delivery, the spin.

      The only thing that they don’t seem to get is that a vote for the GREENS is a VOTE FOR LABOR.

    • Daniel says:

      11:24pm | 19/08/10

      A Liberal supporter talking about spin. Abbott hasn’t told the truth since he became leader of the coalition. Where has Bishop been? Oh, that’s right, if it’s possible, she’s more toxic than Abbott.

    • The Scarlet Pimpernel says:

      08:18am | 20/08/10

      Well, I’m in Lalor by about 100 yards, so my vote will count for nothing. I just wish I could be in a marginal seat for once. Even a safe Coalition seat would be better than this. The AEC have bunged in a large parcel of rural Australia together with the growth belts of Melton and Werribee, with whom we have nothing in common. But they have the numbers.

      Oh well.

      I’m afraid I have changed my mind over the last week, with the dark side having made up ground. The Liberals failed to capitalise on the internet censorship, which should have been a number one priority. They also took the wrong approach to the NBN. In fact they took the wrong aproach to a lot of things. Labor’s record of broken promises, Labor’s historical inability to control debt and Labor’s track record of shafting small business.

      I think the ALP will be returned with a reduced majority in the lower house. They may also find themselves having to do some weird deals in the senate.

      My prophecy is that the following three years will be some of the most difficult since Federation. There *will* be Part Two of the GFC and with no Liberal-inspired surplus behind them, Labor will simply have no answer except massive debt. More rorting, more scams, more lack of oversight. There will be increased union driven strike action and unemployment will skyrocket.

      Joolya however, has gone on record as saying she will have the country in surplus by 2013 - ‘‘failure is not an option’‘. If the Libs do nothing else, they MUST hold her accountable. Keep the pressure on, twenty-four hours a day. I do not believe it can be done - this country will have a deficit nearly as big as Keating’s by then. The NBN alone will soak up an additional $30Billion beyond what Labor have budgeted. Mining companies will put off digging stuff up until the libs get in to remove the mining tax and make it profitable to explore gain.

    • Tails says:

      01:13pm | 19/08/10

      The evil of two lessers. Nice.

      I reckon the back-stabbers will win the vote but it’ll be a hung parliament. We’ll live through three more years of inaction on everything before the back-stabbers win the next election with a mandate to govern.

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZVC2j_Kdw8c

      Reply

    • Dom says:

      01:16pm | 19/08/10

      Eden Monaro will be won by the Liberals, but in a first (since 1972 at least) Labor will be returned to government.  The Greens will grab 2 more seats in the Senate.. Abbott will be opposition leader for 7 months before being challenged and defeated.

      Reply

    • Follow The Money says:

      09:19am | 20/08/10

      Dom, betting in Eden Monaro shows Labor a hot favourite to win Labor $1.25 Liberal $3.75.

    • Dom says:

      10:36am | 20/08/10

      @Follow the Money,
      Out there I concede, but I love a long shot.

    • Chris says:

      01:18pm | 19/08/10

      My pick is that the Liberals will hit their high point in WA by holding all its seats and picking up Hasluck (The Nationals won’t win in either Durack or O’Connor). Similarly, seats will be picked up by the LNP in NSW and Qld but will probably lose seats in Victoria and possibly SA. The potential remains for the Liberals to pick up a couple of seats in Tasmania and the NT - my sneaking suspicion is that they will fall short of victory in their own right.

      Having said that, I’m not convinced that the ALP will hold onto enough seats, so my pick is…..

      Tony Abbott to win with a one seat majority, relying on the three Independents to hold government, oppose motions of no confidence, and support supply.

      Reply

    • Macca says:

      01:18pm | 19/08/10

      I Think the ALP will win, with a reduced Margin, maybe 4 seats more than the Coalition.

      Why; I don’t think Abbott has managed to cut through to the electorate, and I simply can’t see enough seats in Western Sydney falling to the Libs. The Coalition also need to win almost every marginal seat in NSW and QLD and not lose any across the rest of the country. I think this is unlikely.

      Even in my own seat in Bennelong, I still think Maxine McKew will hold it and this will be symbolic of the ALP victory, scraping over the line.

      Also, considering the Greens high primary vote will, at best, result in one seat in the HoR, I expect Labor to receive a significant boost to their 2PP vote.

      Finally, the Australian people are fairly reluctant to accept change. Incumbancy is too great an advantage to throw out a first term government.

      Reply

    • Chris says:

      03:46pm | 19/08/10

      I am expecting a 4.6% swing to the Libs in Bennelong - but I still think ALP by 3 seats over the Libs with that Green from Lindsay giving them the extra seat to get Government.

    • Joolz says:

      01:19pm | 19/08/10

      I have to disagree with you, Colgo. There is anger. It’s in Qld. But I don’t think it stops at the border, it might Pete out around Chatswood and circle Surry Hills and start again in the Shire, but there is anger.

      I think many people have quietly made their minds up. The best way to tell if this government will change will be the queues at 8am on Saturday.

      My father is a good barometer. The more upset he gets, the more likely the coalition will win.

      He’s livid at the moment. I think this government will go.

      Reply

    • Nicole says:

      02:02pm | 19/08/10

      Can you record Queen Jooolya doing one of her infuriating interviews, where she treats everyone like a bunch of Kindy kids, repeating her ‘moving forward’ and her ‘yes we will’ bullsh!t, and then continue to make your dad watch it? We need him to get even more livid, if what you predict is true.

    • Skinny says:

      08:09pm | 19/08/10

      Queenslanders have a habit of not doing things by halves. If it starts swinging like a drunken sailor, seats like Blair, Leichardt, Longman (never mind the youth of the Lib candidate) and Petrie will fall. The decks could be awash with Labor blood spilled by people keen to punish Julia and Anna (twice!).

    • neil says:

      11:00am | 21/08/10

      love it, mine was the same the more he screamed at libs the better chance lab had, always came true

    • Jason CR says:

      01:22pm | 19/08/10

      Gillard by 6-8 seats.
      It will be won on gender and hometown support, believe it or not!
      Libs probably not yet ready to fully govern either, but the fact they are so close indicates how inept and pathetic the incumbents have been.
      2013 cherry ripe for the opposition who can then campaign without ridiculous scare campaigns about Workchoices etc. 
      Labor have some good ideas but absolutely no idea in how to implement them without wastage, cost blowouts etc etc.  God help us.

      Reply

    • Super D says:

      03:02pm | 19/08/10

      I agree, Gillard by 6-8 seats.  She will lead a completely dysfunctional government with a greens senate balance of power which will lead to the undoing of both parties.  As we have seen in NSW and Queensland there is nothing the electorate likes less than feeling it was conned into giving a second chance to a government that didn’t deserve it. Abbott led Libs to win easily in 2013.

    • Davo says:

      03:18pm | 19/08/10

      There is no God…

    • Rob says:

      05:33pm | 19/08/10

      Prove it . . . .

    • The Badger says:

      06:03pm | 19/08/10

      I’m still an atheist - thank God.
      Luis Bunuel

    • BL says:

      01:24pm | 19/08/10

      Labor will win the election by 5 or 6 seats, with the Greens having the balance - the way it should be. The Liberals do not deserve to win - they are hoarders, will do nothing with our infrastructure just hoard our money for the next 10 years - that isn’t what Australia needs and Tony Abbott is not fit to be a Prime Minister. We need someone who will look to the future, not living in the past.

      Reply

    • Michael says:

      03:34pm | 19/08/10

      You think nothing is being done about infrastructure now, yet you want the Greens having the balance? They’ll do even less so they can save the trees/koalas.

    • Tig says:

      04:27pm | 19/08/10

      Infrastructure is a state issue.  The Coalition Feds gave the GST (worth billions each year) ENTIRELY to the States to pump into infrastructure such as roads, hospitals, transportation, etc, and they have NOT spent it on that.  Blame the state labor governments for their improvidence, not the Federal Coalition for saving their money.  If the gst had been spent as intended, you would have the most brilliant infrastructure in the world.  Think about it.

    • Hamish says:

      04:47pm | 19/08/10

      BL, I’ve noticed this increasing trend for ALP supporters to talk about infrastructure. Did I miss the memo about the ALP caring about infrastructure? In Victoria our Labor Government haven’t invested in any new infrastructure which wasn’t at least partially funded by the feds. And what they have invested in is crap. We have a new toll road to nowhere which no one uses and they’ve just announced a rail line to nowhere in some safe Labor seats. The last major piece of new infrastructure in Victoria was CityLink which Kennett built while cleaning up Labor’s budgetary mess.

      Everyone in Australia knows that the NSW ALP haven’t invested a single cent in serious infrastructure in more than 10 years.

      So, I’m wondering where this idea that Labor cares about infrastructure comes from? I mean I know it’s hard when you’re a government and you have to find ways to bag a previous government who were significantly better than you are, but the idea that the ALP care about infrastructure just doesn’t stand up to scrutiny.

    • Tom says:

      08:10pm | 19/08/10

      @ Hamish,
      Excellent point. States are responsible for infrastructure so how did Labor manage to dump it on the Libs?. I think the answer to your “wondering” is that the ALP say it so often that it becomes accepted as truth. They said it so often that a fawning media and gullible public swallowed it.

      Another good example is health where state Labor governments ran health into the ground then started spruiking (a lie as it turns out) that the health system had been deprived of funds by the Feds. No amount of factual refutation seemed to dislodge that shibboleth.

      You’ve gotta hand it to Labor. The can’t manage a chook raffle but they are brilliant when it comes to evading blame and galvanising mob groupthink.

    • hot tub political machine says:

      01:32pm | 19/08/10

      Your comment:My prediction is Labor to win with an unchanged majority of seats. What is lost in Queensland will be won in Victoria and SA.

      My prediction is based on a fairly simple idea that people will vote for the incumbent unless they are persuaded that the alternative is better. While Abbot has succeeded in turning many people off Labor he has not convinced them to vote for him. Watch Tony’s response to the first question he was asked on Q & A again and you will see exactly what I mean.

      Also, looking over at The Poll Bludger the last few weeks have made it pretty clear the coalition is not doing well in the marginal seats it really needs. I personally think the only reason Labor is still talking of a close fight is to avoid perceptions of hubris – the stats show pretty clearly the Liberals aren’t in striking distance in enough seats.

      My only prediction of particular seats is that Boothby will be held by the coalition – its money, money, money territory up there and I just don’t see enough people forgetting their balance sheets at the booth in Boothby.

      Reply

    • Dayton says:

      01:54pm | 19/08/10

      You are spot on about Boothby, plus i think the overall swing will be to liberal so they would have to overcome that and the 2.5% to gain power there.

      However I don’t think that Abbott needed to do much this election except stay out of trouble, the swing will go to the coalition because Labor have failed and people can see through the lies and advertising spin. I just don’t think enough people have caught on to get them across the line unfortunately.

    • Chris says:

      11:17pm | 19/08/10

      I wouldn’t be surprised if Boothby fell - although there is notionally a 2.5% lead to the Libs, if the ALP hadn’t run such a gibbering idiot of a candidate in Nicole Cornes there last time they would have won the seat by 4%, and I think that sentiment still remains in the electorate - with that and a genuine candidate this time around, I think it will be enough for Boothby to be the only seat to change in SA, despite Sturt starting out as the statistically most marginal seat at 0.5% or so.

    • Another Macca, different to the first Macca says:

      01:35pm | 19/08/10

      Labor returned to govt. Reduced no. of seats. Greens pick up a seat in VIC. Hold balance of power. The mad monk will be ex-communicated, welcome back Saint Malcolm. Discuss…

      Reply

    • Macca(1) says:

      04:05pm | 19/08/10

      Firstly, You’re a good man

      I think Abbott will stay on as leader as the Libs were facing annihilation when he took over. Turnbull needs a senior cabinet position tho. Climate Change or Environment would be nice and ironic (although he has previously held environment), but Treasurer or Finance would be more appropriate and reflect his talent

    • Mark S says:

      05:00pm | 19/08/10

      Actually, I think despite my belief the Libs will narrowly win, what you suggest is an all too plausible scenario. It wouldn’t be close with Malcolm in charge I feel.

    • Mark S says:

      05:02pm | 19/08/10

      Actually, I think despite my belief the Libs will narrowly win, what you suggest is an all too plausible scenario. It wouldn’t be close with Malcolm in charge I feel.

    • shane says:

      01:36pm | 19/08/10

      I think the ALP will win with a reduced majority, as many seem to believe.

      If Abbott does win though, I think it will be 3 years of pretty much nothing. Labor won’t be in the mood to compromise in the senate, and with the Greens seemingly heading towards the balance of power, I think Tony and the Libs will probably get some of their own back. Any major reforms will be stopped in the senate and Abbott will either die the death of achieving nothing due to the same obstructionalism he’s used, or go to a double-disolution and loose.

      So says I.

      Reply

    • Dayton says:

      01:46pm | 19/08/10

      Nothing going through would be better then billions of dollars of waste.

    • Macca says:

      04:07pm | 19/08/10

      @Shane, if the ALP lose this election it will tarnish Gillard and throw the factions into disarray. It could either be a turning point in the Union Movement’s history, or send them back another 10 years to the days when Latham and Crean were leaders

    • Sal says:

      04:33pm | 19/08/10

      Agree Dayton, however, I think that many Australians need to be speared in the hip pocket by Labor before they see the light.  It will happen, believe me.  They will bring another 3 years of insane ideas at huge expense that come to naught.  I think the Coalition would be better off not winning and building on the structure they have established now so they can boot them next election.  I think, win or lose, Tony Abbott has exceeded all expectations and done so well.

    • Go Tony says:

      01:37pm | 19/08/10

      Tony to win with a minority vote. 3 or 4 -independents, green -1 vote.  Gillard to continue as Labor leader for at least some time until NSW right start to talk about getting rid of her ( it would be a mistake imo). Kevin Rudd will get a job overseas and leave the Country.

      Reply

    • PJ says:

      01:38pm | 19/08/10

      A 5% swing to the Conservatives——-THUS a 25 seat voting gain—-and a possible 7 seat majority.

      Reply

    • Jason CR says:

      05:22pm | 19/08/10

      Not sure this is an election where you can talk about a uniform swing across the board PJ. 
      Some states will provide this 5% (Qld) yet others (Vic) will more than likely swing the other way.

    • N says:

      01:38pm | 19/08/10

      In my mind, it’s an election better off to be lost given the tight polls. Consider this; the party that wins will have almost no ability to get policies through parliament, the balance of power teetering with the independents and the watermelons. As such it will be another term of policy failure and lack of implementation, which will destroy the governing party’s credibility for a long time. Given this, I would love to see Labor re-elected just to watch the infighting and to see how quickly the union bosses out Gillard when she fails to deliver….

      Reply

    • Stuart says:

      01:58pm | 19/08/10

      I agree, its almost worth seeing Labor win, just to see the fall out when the budget is not back in surplus.

      Heart says the Libs, head says probably labor by a couple of seats, and god help us all if the greens get control of the senate.

    • N says:

      03:15pm | 19/08/10

      Ah but Stuart, didn’t you see Gillard last night at the peoples forum when questioned on the return to surplus by 2013; “Failure is not an option”. Pretty stupid call frankly when it all hinges on macro economics, with other major economies floundering and Labors track record, I’d say failure is a certainty. Makes a good sound bite though for the opposition next election campaign…

    • Macca says:

      04:08pm | 19/08/10

      @N, I think this is a real possibility, should be good viewing

    • James1 says:

      04:33pm | 19/08/10

      N and Stuart,

      I would question the Libs’ ability to manage the economy at this point.  It would be better for them to stay out another three years and see out the tough times, and let the ALP cop the flak from that in the longer term.

      Keep in mind that the Libs’ no longer have the people that did such a good job during Howard’s time.  Costello and Howard are gone.  Tough times call for tough measures, and I’m not sure that the implications are something the Liberals want on their record - it would revive the economic reputation they received during the Fraser/Howard years as being inept.  Much better that they manage the economy in good times, so as to look good as they did with Howard/Costello.

      On the election - ALP to win, but only just.  Four seat majority at most.

    • Evan Findlay says:

      05:25pm | 19/08/10

      Agree. This is an election you probably don’t want to win and possibly it may ruin all economic credentials no matter the party.
      With the domestic economy slowing and showing signs of deflation, with Europe and America still spiralling down through the recession and China constraining growth within it’s economy, the end result will be a downturn in the only sector that is propping up our economy, the mining industry.
      If behaviours are to go by then Labor will stimulate with taxpayers dollars and the Liberals will procrastinate to the point of us being in recession. So Labor will be left with the “Debt and deficit” tag whilst Liberal’s will have the tag of incompetence.
      The good thing about going into recession would be that the housing market bubble would finally burst and we would see some normality and correction come back into the market. The flipside, it would be deep and prolonged.

    • Jason CR says:

      05:58pm | 19/08/10

      Evan,
      Theres a first for everything.  Couldn’t agree more with you regarding the housing bubble bursting being a good thing.  Both parties have not mentioned housing affordability at all and I have children that are fast being locked out forever from the ‘great Australian dream’.

    • PS says:

      10:43pm | 19/08/10

      Me to as they deserve each other and it would do them good to get in and try to clean up the mess that they created, go Julia as who would want to govern Australia the way it is today, but god help us all, AMEN!!

    • Dayton says:

      01:39pm | 19/08/10

      I think that once again this election will be decided by the people who don’t care about politics. The ones that see a 30 second ad bagging a politician and think, I better vote with the majority. So I think Labor will just scrape across the line with a large swing to the libs. They will not return the budget to surplus, the NBN will cost 70 billion, unions will fire up and we can expect strike after strike, Julia will be stabbed in the back and replaced, labor will spend 50 million on spin and smokescreen ads before the next election and Turnbull will win in 2013.

      Australia, you can stop this and safe Australia billions of dollars now. Vote for the coalition on Saturday.

      Reply

    • Shane says:

      02:49pm | 19/08/10

      70 billion! Did you get your costing at the same place Tony Abbott does?
      In all seriousness though, Dayton, you are a tool. Bagging other’ people’s intelligence then making a typo in your own, self righteous rant. Gold!

    • Tails says:

      03:24pm | 19/08/10

      Et tu, Shane?

    • Dayton says:

      03:34pm | 19/08/10

      Ahh, you sound like Joolya, you know how to distract from someones argument. Spin spin spin. Ps: I spelt her name wrong before you try that again.

    • MarK says:

      04:00pm | 19/08/10

      Shhh Shane you will wake the kids.

      Dayton never made a typo. He is making the claim trhat the NBN will actually blow out to a $70 billion build cost.

      Please read then engage keyboard.

    • Sal says:

      04:38pm | 19/08/10

      $70 billion is pretty conservative, Shane.  However, looking back over past performances, NBN is just not going to happen.  Why? because Labor can’t organise themselves out of a paper bag.

    • Daniel says:

      11:32pm | 19/08/10

      That’s the way. Compare overspending when an emergency stimulus was applied to quickly save the economy, to a well planned and organised infrastructure project corporation. You never cease to amaze. Oh, but I guess the GFC didn’t happen.

    • AJ says:

      11:28am | 20/08/10

      IT rollouts are notorious for being over budget and behind time.43 BN is a conservative estimate in my view. Given that the total Australian Budget is 350BN this is a huge amount of cash to be diverting from other services we expect government to provide. As far as election tipping goes, a lot of people here seem to be parroting polling predictions. One small thing I have noticed is an error in the allocation of preferences with the incorrect assumption that nearly all the green vote will preference labor. Historically this is a bit of a furphy, 63% last election means that a significant minority of 2nd prefs go elsewhere. Labor needs almost all green preferences (above 80%) in order to retain a majority - this is statistically highly unlikely. So a hung parliament is on the cards, and if that happens Tony’s a chance given the rightwards leanings of the independants.

    • Jo says:

      02:58am | 21/08/10

      This Election cost 67 million to have & hopefully labor is gone, although good points about not wanting to win this one better to win the next. Just worried how much damage Julia and Bob Brown can do in that time. NBN will blowout just like everything else they have done.

      The Liberals would not of put us in recession as they did not oppose stimulus they opposed the amount! Instead of 42Billion they said 20billion and how does the money been spent now help us when crisis is over according to Labor???

      Libs will win with 3 independents Julia will be axed halfway through term.

    • Gumby says:

      01:40pm | 19/08/10

      The real winners are the advertising industry

      Reply

    • Dayton says:

      01:47pm | 19/08/10

      Give this man an award, he has hit the nail on the head. I’m so sick of the millions that are spent on hate campaigns. Abbott has promised to cap political advertising spending. Funnily enough you haven’t seen it in the media for a single second.

    • Kim says:

      04:29pm | 19/08/10

      Exactly Gumby.  It probably wouldn’t be as bad if they advertised “positive” policies, but the only thing I’m seeing is negative hate advertising - and they’re spending millions on it.  What a waste…

    • Fred says:

      01:47pm | 19/08/10

      Punish Labor, and re elect them to fix the mess they made through poor management and the exploitation by business sharks and make them build on the research and planning that took too long to implement good ideas , and with rigorous democratic participation of those who vote make them accountable .  Democracy has been the loser in this woeful election campaign and we are better than that, aren’t we?

      Reply

    • nosthow says:

      01:52pm | 19/08/10

      A comfortable Labor win I feel Colgo mainly because its only the Labor Party that has any real policies and vision for Australias future - Abbott and the Coalition just have nothing. Its a long time since I saw someone trying to become PM with no real platform as is Abbotts case and the wise Australian people will I believe see through that flimsy fabric of spin he presents as policy and vision.

      Reply

    • Jason CR says:

      01:54pm | 19/08/10

      Forgot to add - despite losing, Coalition with a higer primary vote than Labor!! Go figure and what a ripper system we have, the 2PP.

      Reply

    • Paul Neri says:

      01:54pm | 19/08/10

      Massive protest against both major political parties by a huge green vote.

      Reply

    • DougB says:

      01:55pm | 19/08/10

      Coalition by 2 seats, probably depending on the 3 independents mentioned, Oakeshott, Katter and Windsor.

      Reply

    • Al says:

      01:58pm | 19/08/10

      My guess is that Labor will win a majority. Along the way they will lose 11 seats, pick up one - possibly 2 if Bennelong’s strong education values over-rule Rudds assassination - and the Greens will pick up another.
      Any gain through the female vote will be offset by the male vote - particularly in the outer ring suburban seats of NSW and Qld where a lot of old traditionalists don’t like the idea of a woman in the top job (sad but true).
      There will be a swing against Labor in WA but they will only lose one seat at best. Vic, SA and NT will hold steady. Eden Monaro will go to Labor - just.

      Reply

    • Shane From Melbourne says:

      02:08pm | 19/08/10

      Who cares? They are both nearly the same. Both have no vision, no real leadership. Both are middle class welfare crack dealers. Whoever wins the next election, Australia loses.

      Reply

    • Dash says:

      02:09pm | 19/08/10

      Point 5 is such a leading and biased comment, you seem to have made your mind up Paul. We will get the government the media wants us to have, just like 07. I fear Labor will win by three seats. With young voters voting purely with “Facebook” in mind. The primary vote will go to the Coalition though and so we will effectively end up with a minority government. I’ll lose my private health tax rebate and this will impact health insurers around the country. A cost on carbon and the additional 3% on superannuation will drive up prices significantly and inflation will be one of the key reasons the ALP loses the next election. The NBN will cost over $80billion and be out of date by the time it is finished (if it ever gets finished). There will be job losses on the back of the profits tax as investment in the mining sector falls. The government will waste billions on East Timor processing centres and the boats will continue to come. There will be no Parramatta to Epping railway built. Population growth will put significantly more strain on infrustructure in Sydney and Melbourne. Gillard will be removed from office through an internal NSW factional coup and the Liberals will win the next election in a landslide. They will hold onto power for 12 years trying to fix the mess left behind and when things look up, Labor will promise the world and get in again and the cycle will continue.

      Reply

    • Steven Kaye says:

      03:33pm | 19/08/10

      The cycle won’t continue indefinitely, because we are seeing the gradual decline of the Labor vote. Sure, there’ll be sudden spikes as in 2007, but I won’t be surprised if their primary vote hits 33% in 2013.

    • hot tub political machin says:

      04:33pm | 19/08/10

      Yes we are seeing a gradual decline in Labor’s vote but those votes are going to the greens not the coalition. Indeed if you look at the long term trend and consider Labor and Greens as “leftwing votes” at each election there are more leftwing votes than the previous election. The country is moving further left.

      Add to this the right wing demographic is quite literally dying off - and I think your going to see the coalition gradually drift more to the left (as is already happening with concessions like paid parental leave and increased emphasis on environment) over the next 20 years.

    • MarK says:

      02:11pm | 19/08/10

      Labor by 2 seats. Pretty much the worst case scenario for anyone including her.

      The Green vote to be about the 8% mark like last time. No real move. All smoke no fire there.

      Gillard to last 12-18 months. Shorten and Combet duke it out. Hawke vs Keating relationship develops.

      The Libs will prably make a change soonish as well. ****Note wild prediction inc. Costello “persuaded” to make a comeback raspberry

      If, and a huge if, Abbott wins the fallout in the Labor ranks will be worth buying tickets to watch.

      Reply

    • Steve says:

      03:51pm | 19/08/10

      Agree MarkK…if they could broadcast the first caucus meeting if they lost, ‘live’ it would break all ratings records!

      Unforntately I think we are stuck for at least 3 more years of Wayne Swan whinging about something!

    • Hamish says:

      05:23pm | 19/08/10

      MarK, I agree with your prediction. Gillard to win by 2-5 seats with the Green vote falling to about 8-9% (which is still up on last election, but way down on poll results).

      If that happens Gillard won’t make it a year. She’ll get knifed quick smart. Already been rumours in Crikey suggesting the knives are being sharpened by the back-room boys who think she’s failed badly. They apparently don’t rate Abbott and think she should be romping it home.

      Abbott will probably stay leader for some time based on our predicted result, possibly all the way to the next election.

    • MarK says:

      06:06pm | 19/08/10

      “They apparently don’t rate Abbott and think she should be romping it home.”

      Yeh. Tony proved them wrong but they will use this narrative to shaft her.

      Just a variation on the “off the rails” thing. You got to have a reason to kill the king or queen other than we want to keep in power using whatever it takes or I am ambitious and just wanted the job.

    • Daniel says:

      11:36pm | 19/08/10

      Wow Mark, paranoid much? It happens once now it’s going to happen every Labor term? With 3 leaders in 3 years, and you ‘predict’ a new lib leader soon? Good call Nostradamus.

    • MarK says:

      05:49pm | 20/08/10

      Just heard 2 Gillard interviews.

      She is rattled as hell. Libs by 4.

      Cannot believe this is happening. Inconceivable position from 6 months ago

      @Daniel - prediction based on a loss. Abbott to be PM for next 5 years handing over to Turnbull. I really cannot see the correlation between 3 leaders in 3 years and my prediction tbh. Labor will have the same as well in short time smile /wink

    • Luke04 says:

      02:11pm | 19/08/10

      It will be a Labor victory unfortunately, and then we will see the Labor Government fall apart, with the knifing and revenge of Kevin07 drama unfolding after the election is over. There is no Defence Minister yet and no Finance Minister and Foreign Affiars Minister is who knows? What sort of Government will it be with the ex Prime Minister in the front row with woman who back stabbed him? And then the journo’s will be saying we should have seen this coming and voted them out when we had the choice! What a mess this Government is going to be and an embarrassment to Australia.

      Reply

    • Joe Blow says:

      02:12pm | 19/08/10

      Labor by a couple of seats ... Subsequently the Labor voters who now regret voting for Latham, and now regret voting for Rudd, will again regret voting Labor ..... until the next election of course.

      Reply

    • Phil says:

      06:47am | 20/08/10

      That is spot on. Many must have the memory of a gold fish, and the iq equvalent of the ambient temperature of the North Pole.

      It is actually comical to watch, those that proudly wore Kevin 07 shirts will now have a Kath (Queen Joolya) shirt on, and the same bogans probably wore a Latham one as well.

    • Steve says:

      02:14pm | 19/08/10

      Abbott will be our next PM and Howard will be the next Governor General of Australia. They will live next door to one another in Kirribilli.  After they axe the 24 hour ABC news channel, Sky and News Ltd will take over what remains.  Australians will live happily everafter on limitless oil reserves.

      Reply

    • shane says:

      03:50pm | 19/08/10

      hahaha. I like it. Best comment of the day

    • Steely Dan says:

      02:30pm | 19/08/10

      My 2010 election prediction hasn’t changed since November 2007 (though I originally thought it would be Rudd vs Turnbull!).

      Labor to win with a moderately reduced (4-5 seats) majority, both leaders to grin like maniacs on the podium and call it a win.

      Reply

    • CK says:

      02:32pm | 19/08/10

      This will be a cliffhanger finish. We may even see something similar to what happened in Britain at their last election with it being undecided until several deals between members of parliament were made.

      Reply

    • Rob r Charteris says:

      02:33pm | 19/08/10

      The ALP will retain government purely because they are the only ones with a plan for the future, can explain their policies, don’t run and hide when scrutinised, don’t have a greater than thou rule to govern, aren’t desperate for a better job to fund their over stretched mortgages, actually involve people in their policy making, do a better job on the economy, run simplistic negative campaigns, force their personal views on the populous, Look like, smell like act like a lizard with a carrot stuck up where mother never kissed you. Smile at you while routinely lie at you. It is only right that Australia deserves a good and stable government who can make the hard decisions not the populist half-baked sound bites that try to buy votes that is the lack of substance of the Coalition.

      Reply

    • Jason CR says:

      03:25pm | 19/08/10

      Rob, your posts should be done in crayon to give then the full effect.

    • MarK says:

      03:29pm | 19/08/10

      Interesting.

      You answered the question quite well in the first 5 words of your post but then proceeded to write another 100 or so ummm…venting?

      Your mind truly works in mysterious ways.

    • Rob r Charteris says:

      04:57pm | 19/08/10

      Jason CR; Yes I realise crayons would make it easier for you to take in.

      MarK; glad you read it ; )

    • Dash says:

      05:05pm | 19/08/10

      Nah Rob, they will win because people like you swallow the Labor bullsh!t and are allowed to vote!

    • MarK says:

      06:08pm | 19/08/10

      If I comment on something I have read the post.

      unlike others….

    • Louisa says:

      06:47pm | 19/08/10

      Rob r Charteris failed finger painting at Kindergarten

    • Rob r Charteris says:

      08:53pm | 19/08/10

      Gee guy’s I thought you snivelling libs could do better than that…

      Louisa, fella that is so tough lol

    • Rob r Charteris says:

      09:06pm | 19/08/10

      Dash, isn’t democracy great!

    • daniel says:

      11:22pm | 19/08/10

      Labor does a better job on the economy? I think you forgot where the money came from in the 1st place, and that was from a non-spending Liberal Government. Not because they didnt want to, but, if they did, interest rates would of sky rocketed.  Labor only spent the money urgently cos the economic climate let them, and liberals would of done the exact same thing at that exact time, as fast as possible before the situation gets better. It wouldnt of mattered who was in power, it had to be spent. Things are going okay again, so, time to hold the cash til the next time. Its the economy, that makes the money spending decisions, not the government of the time. To say Labor is better on the economy, is just another spin ball. Im normally a labor voter, but im not an idiot. Anyone with half a brain would see straight thru that rubbish.

    • Chris says:

      03:02pm | 19/08/10

      Labor because they have had the media on side throughout the campaign - nobody has really given Gillard the hard time she richly deserved. Whether she will last is another story. There will be problems (especially with Rudd).
      Labor has also run a very dirty campaign, failed to name itself in much of the election material it sent out - but misrepresented Coalition policy while doing so.
      The Coalition is far from perfect but overall it has a more responsible approach to government and their election material is clearly marked - suggesting that they are prepared to stand by their word.
      Boothby will probably be lost but they will regret it. Southcott has been a good pollie at the local level and made himself available - and this is what our local representatives should be doing. That is their primary responsibility!

      Reply

    • Carnegie says:

      03:03pm | 19/08/10

      My prediction is too close to call….....
      After redistribution starting point for Coalition is 60
      Gains: Dickson; Macarthur; Hughes; Herbert; Swan; Robertson ; Leichhardt; Flynn; Macquarie; Dawson; Hasluck; Lindsay; Bennelong;

      Losses: McEwen; Greenway

      That leaves the Coalition with 71, therefore to gain a majority the Coalition need to win 5 of: Solomon; Page; Forde; Longman; Corangamite; Brisbane; Bass; Petrie; Dobell; Eden-Monaro; Bonner & Morteton.

      If they fail to win 5 out of the 11 listed above, they need 2 to have any hope of forming a minority govt in a hung parliament with the support of 3 former National Independents.

      Sweaty palms on both sides!

      Reply

    • MarK says:

      03:31pm | 19/08/10

      Great list mate.

      I have printed it out to see how close you get, not to berate but simply from an interest point of view.

      You put a lot of work and thought into it.

      Well done, +1internetz to you smile

    • Carnegie says:

      05:22pm | 19/08/10

      Thanks MarK!!

      Should be a very interesting election night!

      P.S. Just reread my original post, please substitute Gilmore for Macarthur - Macarthur was not one of the 5 “notional” labor seats, so it will be a hold for the Libs.

      Cheers
      Carnegie

    • MarK says:

      05:47pm | 19/08/10

      Yep yep got it smile

    • AJinDarwin says:

      12:27pm | 20/08/10

      The GWS poll gives Solomon to the CLP once preferences are broken up, They incorrectly called it as a Labor hold without factoring in the CEC and ON prefs, Green prefs need to go to ALP by 80% for Hale to have an outside chance of hanging on, The CLP candidate has been very visible and often covered in the local press against Hale being dubbed the invisible man. That said the public forum in Darwin Mall clearly gave Hale the nod. But since that was an ABC sponsored event only a minority saw it and then only if they bothered to view the web video. Solomon also only swung in the hoopla of the Kev07 campaign, its traditionally CLP and the margin was only 196 votes. Cant see an ALP hold at all!

    • Luke04 says:

      03:05pm | 19/08/10

      Tony may lose, but what a great job he has done to get the Libs back in contention and so close to a victory. And now we see Julia desperate to cease victory to dignify her knifing of the PM. I’m sure she is shacking in her shoes at the moment, because it won’t look pretty for her if she loses.

      Reply

    • Steven Kaye says:

      03:38pm | 19/08/10

      Tony Abbott has done a magnificent job as Liberal leader. Of course, this will never be noted by political commentators, given that the vast majority of “journalists” in Australia would rather gnaw off their own limbs before they say anything complimentary about him.

    • Carnegie says:

      03:07pm | 19/08/10

      Correction:

      Greenway is alread notional Labor due to redistibution. So Coalition has 72 and will need to win at least 4 of 11 contestables listed…..

      Reply

    • kc says:

      03:07pm | 19/08/10

      The ALP will win because the coalition unfortunately doesn’t really have a viable candidate (although he’s done better than I expected). If Turnbull or Costello were leading the opposition campaign following labors holier-than-art-thou, corrupt, “we don’t have to tell anyone why we decided to ignore the Australian public’s democratic decision except that we wanted power” moment, then it would be a no contest.

      Unfortunately I think having someone who has expressed so many extreme views in the past as the face of the campaign is just keeping people away (although there is no doubt that people would jump that way otherwise).

      I just hope that the ALP don’t see victory as a “mandate”, and justification of their recent antics, because it’s quite clearly resulted in a lot of animosity amongst the electorate and I really want to hear some remorse from them about it all. Personally I think Gillard is an embarrassment and has really dampened any enthusiasm about having our “first female pm” (particularly the way it all occurred) and I’m not looking forward to her running around claiming a mandate and pouring scorn over the Australian public in her patronising and condescending way.

      Ah well, should be an interesting (but most likely wasted) few years.

      Reply

    • Randal says:

      03:14pm | 19/08/10

      The recent re-distribution by the AEC in NSW and Queensland has been of great help to the ALP giving them an increase from a majority of 16 to a notional 26 seat lead.

      For mine this will be an unusual election as we will not see a constant swing across the country, Victoria and South Australia will see a moderate swing to the ALP and this will deliver the seats of McKewen, LaTrobe and Sturt, whilst Corangamite will return to the Libs and the ALP will hold Melbourne, giving the ALP a gain of 2 across SA & VIC.

      Tasmania will see a surprise with Bass being won by the Libs with a small swing to the Liberal candidate and the Liberals will also fair well in WA with Hasluck and Swan falling their way on the back of a strong anti-government swing across the State.

      NT and ACT will see no change, and this will bring us to the northern States where local issues in NSW will see a dramatic swing to the Liberals with a gain of 7 seats including Page, Bennelong, Lindsay, Marcarthur, Robertson, Gilmore and Macquarie, however the litmus seat of Eden-Monaro will stay with the ALP and they will pick up Hughes against the trend.

      Meanwhile in Queensland, dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of the mining tax and the dismissal of Kevin Rudd will see a number of gains made by the ALP in 2007 wiped out with Bonner, Leichardt, Dickson, Longman, Forde, Dawson, Flynn and Herbert all falling to the Libs.

      Across the nation the swing to the Coalition will be around 2.0% but far greater in NSW & Queensland and strong in WA.

      In the wash up we will see:

      Lib/Nat 74 ALP 73 Ind 3

      This will result in a hung parliament and due to the tight margins across many seats a winner will not be found for many days as votes are counted and then re-counted, there will be protests of unfairness by both parties, threats of court action and allegations of cheating, eventually the result will stand with the Coalition or ALP requiring the support of the former National’s to form a minority government.

      In the end a deal is struck for all 3 to support the Coalition with promises made of greater resources in the bush and Tony Abbott is then sworn in as Australia’s 28th Prime Minister.

      Reply

    • heather says:

      09:50am | 20/08/10

      I think you’re psychic Randal. My additional prediction, if Coalition sneaks in, there will be a bloodbath, and Gillard will be history, et tu Brute. But Coalition will be very pleased with itself, and retain Abbott. If ALP wins, their guaranteed stuffups over next 3 years will ensure a landslide to Coalition at the next election…and Gillard will more than likely NOT be leader then either.

    • neil says:

      03:22pm | 19/08/10

      I suspect a hung parliment if Labor pick up 75 and the Greens get Melbourne then Labor will form a disfunctional government and we will be back at the polls within 12 months.

      If the Coalition gets 73 they will form government with the 3 country indepndents which could be a good compromise, especially for rural Australia.

      Reply

    • Tim says:

      03:32pm | 19/08/10

      Julia will win the election, but Collingwood will win the premiership.  Double woe.

      Reply

    • Tails says:

      04:05pm | 19/08/10

      Blame Julia.
      Collingwood haven’t lost a game since she knifed Rudd.

    • Paul says:

      03:32pm | 19/08/10

      it will be a tie but Rudd will cross the floor to form government with the coalition and independents. Gillard will leave the parliament and lay at home on her couch with her cat depressed for a number of years before writing her memoirs in very poor english.

      Reply

    • Steve says:

      04:19pm | 19/08/10

      Love it!...and whats even more funny I think it is accurate!

    • kc says:

      04:39pm | 19/08/10

      Love this one smile

    • Biteme says:

      03:37pm | 19/08/10

      Well Gillards first broken promise is in process right this very minute. Right now as you read this 38 Transportable buildings are being taken from Jandakot WA to a remote location in WA for the construction of a 3,000 bed detention centre. Now you can expect immigration lawyers will be pouring out of the woodwork to make their millions while clogging up the courts for years. Hope you can handle the extra tax to cover all this legal aid.

      Reply

    • Sam says:

      06:13pm | 19/08/10

      Wow, 38 transportables each capable of holding 79 beds. Thats massive. That has to clog the highways and byways. Thats gotta make the evening news. Otherwise I’ll assume it is just another LIEbrals “Tampa”.

    • Lol says:

      11:43pm | 19/08/10

      +1 paranoid xenophobic vote. You were an easy buy for Tony.

    • Jo says:

      03:33am | 21/08/10

      This story was broken on 6pr in perth by a worker employed to construct it on wednesday. Confirmed by Chis Evans office however unavailable for comment (surprise, surprise) Why did the media not run with it is anybody’s guess. It also has plans to expand to house 4000 in the long run. Unfortunatly it is the media who have let Australia down by not asking the tough questions or holding them to account.

    • Bearman79 says:

      03:39pm | 19/08/10

      I believe the ALP will win with a reduced margin this Saturday, with the Greens controlling the senate, not because they deserve to, but because their economic mismanagement has not had time enough to really start hurting people yet. 

      Globally things are going to get worse, much worse (EU and US the hardest), and when China begins to contract, and our miners start to struggle, the extra tax burden they will bear will damage jobs and in some cases destroy entire towns.  Markets will be extremely volatile and Super will suffer because of it, meaning people will have to put off retirement, leaving less jobs for young people. 

      Unemployment will increase and the real-estate market will tank and we will see many young Aussie families loose the homes.  But hey, at least we’ll have really fast broadband to comfort us. 

      Sadly I believe only after the heavy burden of ALP mistakes are felt far and wide will we see a return to the Coalition in 3 years time.  Whether they can sort out the mess by then, who knows.

      Reply

    • Kim says:

      05:16pm | 19/08/10

      Gees, now I’m depressed.

    • Evan Findlay says:

      05:59pm | 19/08/10

      Bearman79,
      If the Lib’s get in it will read exactly as you have stated except we wont have decent broadband!
      And it’s lose, not loose.

    • Casper says:

      09:48pm | 19/08/10

      sadly - I agree with this comment…

    • Joe P says:

      03:44pm | 19/08/10

      Labor 80, Lib 67, Ind 3 cause thats how the numbers stack up. The Poodle is gone! Tony to get necked by Malcolm within 12 months. An actual contest in 2013 if the Nats don’t spray thier brains on the wall in the meantime. Turnbull in 2013 or 2016 (if he can wait that long) may yet prove to be a great leader if he can quash the right wingnuts in his own party.

      Reply

    • Against the Man says:

      03:44pm | 19/08/10

      Libs to win (narrowly). Many people will get cold feet at the last moment with the idea of Gillard as PM and Ruddy loyalist will also want some revenge for the slap in the face Gillard has given them.

      Reply

    • iansand says:

      03:45pm | 19/08/10

      Labor by 5—> 10 Seats.  One Green in the Reps.  Green balance of power in the Senate (which may turn out to be their undoing)

      Reply

    • Biteme says:

      04:09pm | 19/08/10

      Something interesting I found today and yesterday. i have been driving around the Petrie Qld area quite a bit, and I have noticed just about every 500 metres the is a coreflute sign with Wayne Swann on it. I must have seen at least 100 of them. But I did not see a single Liberal sign. Not one! Do we have a Lib rep in this electorate?

      Reply

    • Gary Cox says:

      04:10pm | 19/08/10

      I think the ALP will win and it will prove what I’ve known for at least three years: Most Australians are idiots

      Reply

    • redring says:

      04:14pm | 19/08/10

      Labor by 9 seats - history is on their side and with Green preferences will get over the line reasonably comfortably

      Reply

    • Paul says:

      04:19pm | 19/08/10

      I bet most of the people tipping a comfortable Labor victory do not reside in NSW. Labor as a brand is terrible in this state and I think the swing against the Labor party has been underestimated. Gillard better be popular elsewhere because her party will be belted in NSW.

      Balance of power to probably come down to the 3 independants who will all easily hold their seats.

      Reply

    • Daryl says:

      05:50pm | 19/08/10

      Paul, she went to school in Adelaide for about half an hour, so they all love her because apart from bad footy teams they don’t have anything else there and it’s tipped to be a swing towards Labor in S.A.. (can you believe that???) And talk is of one Vic seat being picked up by Labor too because she’s making out that she’s a Victorian. So most sensible people wouldn’t pick those as ligitimate reasons but parochialism is alive and well in OZ it seems.

    • Digby says:

      04:23pm | 19/08/10

      ALP by about 12 - 3 Independents and no Greens

      Reply

    • Biteme says:

      04:40pm | 19/08/10

      Oh well at least the Chairman of the ACCC got the NAB to save his $50 Million Fortune in the DFO Stores. Of course there was no conflict of interest in that.
      Some people get all the luck!

      Reply

    • Just Sayin' says:

      04:45pm | 19/08/10

      I predict another three years of visionless, uninspired, mediocre government. 

      I predict another three years of media focussing on what the key players look like, what they wear, what gender they are, what their words mean when taken out of context and whether they speak from notes rather than focussing issues that actually matter.

      I predict more government cashgrabs to pay for more handouts to people who’s vote might be for sale.

      I predict very few questions will actually be answered in question time over the next three years.

      I predict continued scapegoating of the vulnerable and voiceless within our society, and some of those who wish to be a part of it.

      I’d put money on it all, but no one will take the bet.

      Reply

    • Kim says:

      05:20pm | 19/08/10

      In other words…...you’re saying labour will win?  waaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhh !!

    • Mark S says:

      04:53pm | 19/08/10

      Going to go down to the wire this one. I have lost count of the number of ‘rusted on’ Labor voters (me included) that I have spoken to who are still undecided or going Green this election , which I think will be a game changer as alluded to above…...

      Personally I think a Labor victory will serve no one, not them, not the public and not the issues. If they are able to abandon fundamental principles, lose their core, be re-active only to the polls and not develop good policy, fire an elected PM, abandon and lie about mandated changes (climate, removal of workchoices… its still in people!) etc etc and still win an election…... well that will truly make some believe they can get away with just about anything.

      My tip? Libs by a seat. Just the one. But perhaps the above is clouding my perspective. smile

      Reply

    • Mitch says:

      04:54pm | 19/08/10

      Don’t misunderestimate Tony Abbott. I’m predicting he will win by one seat on a count back in a seat with suspicions of fraud and with a minority of the national vote. He will then proceed to spend nearly his entire first term on a cycling holiday until…..

      Reply

    • Henry says:

      09:34pm | 19/08/10

      misunderstimate isn’t a word. You’ve watched too many George W. Bush press conferences….  o_0

    • Seano says:

      05:07pm | 19/08/10

      Labor win by roughly 6 seats.
      Greens win balance in the senate.

      Abbott and work"choices” both binned as they should been in the first place.

      The Libs face a real challenge, stick with the Howard era style negativity and transparent propoganda about the economy. Or come up with something new fresh and positive. Labor wont have anywhere near as hostile a senate this time around so giving punters the same old, same old would be a real mistake.

      Reply

    • Jason CR says:

      05:49pm | 19/08/10

      Seano, much rather the same old than what’s been dished up to us in the last 6 years from Labor.
      6 years ago we got Latham (dodged a bullet), less than 3 years ago we got KRudd (best thing since toilet paper we were told) and now we have their 3rd stringer, Julia.
      Wow, the Labor party is bursting at the seams with talent, who needs the same old I guess.
      Question, did you vote for Latham and Rudd, Seano?

    • Seano says:

      08:02am | 20/08/10

      @Jason - give it a rest champ. Latham had a lot of people fooled for a long time, funny how this lunatic is now the darling of the conservative demogoguery, but only after we all know he’s a lunatic. Rudd did a good job but lost his way, personally I think he burnt himself out. Gillard will do an excellent job as PM,

      I voted against Howard as I am voting against Abbott.

      We don’t need more misdirection on the economy, debt when it is so small compared to our GDP is no a major issue when we need infrastructure. A few thousand people on boats, almost all of whom get accepted as genuine refugees are not a big deal, playing the race card for cheap votes is low. We don’t need more middle class welfare. We don’t need more ads to tells how great the government is. We don’t need attacks on workers or their rights. We don’t need a government that attacks the most vulnerable in society to score cheap votes or just because they an get away with it. We don’t need a government that wastes the opportunity of boom times through inaction.

      This Labor government hasn’t been perfect by a long way. But they’ve had a go, they got us through the GFC, killed off work"choices” and apologised to the Aborigines. Much better than the proposed alternative.

    • Mr Pastry says:

      05:08pm | 19/08/10

      The election will finish but the lazy media punditclatura will still be creaming each other with their opinions and poll analysis casting their wisdom downwards for us pezzies. 
      Congrats to punch for getting as entrenched in this media wank fest.

      Reply

    • Mr Pastry says:

      07:54pm | 19/08/10

      Sorry my bile got int the way of my typing Congrats to Punch for not getting as entrenched….

    • Samuel says:

      05:10pm | 19/08/10

      I think Labor by about 4.  But I’m perhaps compensating for the fact that i want it to go the other way.  Whatever the case, and here’s the real prediction, whoever wins will not win in 2013.

      Reply

    • Pierre says:

      05:13pm | 19/08/10

      Apparently PM Gillard was showing her form at the press club today (I did not see it) Spent 15 mins attacking Mr Abbott about everything. Is she worried??. Anyway I think ALP will win with an 8 seat Majority. Will be a very sad election. Well done Tony you have done a sterling job and you are a winner. People, Please be kind to one another, forget all this personality bashing. OK.

      Reply

    • David says:

      05:36pm | 19/08/10

      ALP - unfortunately. It will give them time to do more economic and social damage and entrench union power just a little further - then they will pass the mess over to the Coalition and get them to sort as much as they can before taking up the reins again. Australians never learn.  This is why we should ditch compulsory attendance at the ballot box and compulsory preferential voting. Pollies know they are on an easy wicket here.

      Reply

    • Julie Coker-Godson says:

      09:51pm | 19/08/10

      That would be an extraordinarily dangerous thing to do.  We don’t have as big a population as the USA and would end up with the nation’s interests being decided by a minority of special interest parties due to Australian apathy about voting. Considering the Greens, just for starters, that is a truly horrific thought.  We need compulsory voting so that this does not happen and it has served us well for all the years that I have lived and been able to recall.

    • ted says:

      05:37pm | 19/08/10

      ALP 74
      Greens 1
      LNP 72
      3 Indep

      Independants Coalition with LNP

      Test of Bob Brown’s independence…....will claim the ALP’s abdication of responsibility regarding the ETS and environment will see them remain seperate from ALP.

      Tony Abbott PM.

      Reply

    • Louisa says:

      06:51pm | 19/08/10

      Test of Bob Brown’s intelligence

      1 + 1 =  ?

    • JB says:

      06:08pm | 19/08/10

      Labor will win 2PP by about 52-48, but the majority could go either way. I think Labor will scrape through with 1-4 seats, probably closer to 4. The coalition could win, but if it does it will be by just 1 or 2 seats, or with independant support, in which case they will loose the next election when people realise thier mistake. Also, with state labor gone and not an issue in QLD and NSW, K Rudd issue gone and mining tax issue gone, voters will likely return to Labor at next election if coalition wins. One thing is certain, Staurday will be interesting…

      Reply

    • jb says:

      06:12pm | 19/08/10

      Labor to Labor voters is just a football team it doesn’t matter how bad they are they just keep supporting them regardless.
      Labor voters should be called Rabitoes…

      Reply

    • Stewart Henstock says:

      06:14pm | 19/08/10

      NSW and Qld lead the Coalition to a landslide victory.
      If not NSW and QLD disenfranchise themselves from the rest of Australia and form there own country : crowning Abbott as King.
      Wait!
      We are talking state politics…right?
      LNP :80
      ALP : 66
      Greens : 1
      IND : 3

      Reply

    • 4leaf says:

      06:35pm | 19/08/10

      For all the talk of baseball bats being out in Qld - the bookies know best and only give the Libs 2 seats there.  If Abbott gets very lucky, he could pick up 4 in NSW and another in WA.  So that’s a gain to the LIbs of 7 total.  But in Victoria Gillard will almost certainly pick up McKewin and maybe La Trobe, whilst the Greens get Melbourne (maybe).  Doing the sums that means Abbott has an actual gain of 6 at best.  If the Greens get Melbourne that makes it 76 to the ALP, 73 Libs and 1 Green.  Or, Gillard holds Lindsay, Bennelong, Melbourne and Hasluck and takes Boothby in SA and La Trobe - producing a gain to the Libs of just 1, followed by a swathe of so called experts trying to pretend they haven’t beaten up the whole “close election” line to sell newspapers!

      Reply

    • Jason CR says:

      09:33pm | 19/08/10

      4leaf,
      The bookies have Alexander (Bennelong) at $1.54 favourite after heavy support. 
      Centrebet have Libs at $1.57 clear favourite in Hasluck.
      Libs favourite in Lindsay and clear favourites in Boothby….
      Greens $1.50 short prices favourite in Melbourne too…
      Your comment is that the bookies know best… yet you’re saying Gillard could possibly hold all of those seats..

      Just trying to work out your logic here.

    • john Williams says:

      07:05pm | 19/08/10

      A lot of people are yet to make up their minds.
      I do not believe this.
      I never did believe it.
      i think people object to the media lecturing them and simply refuse to participate.
      The way of the future is to cut out the media to a large extent and have many more of the town hall meetings.
      Of course this will infuriate leeches like the 7:30 Report ...no bad thing.
      Oh…the result?
      Liberal landslide in Qld,NSW and WA.
      Liberal Government.
      Oblivion for Shorten Arbib, Swann…no bad thing either.

      Reply

    • stephen says:

      07:06pm | 19/08/10

      I think the LNP will succeed on saturday.
      I don’t know by how much and i don’t care.
      Once when I voted about 15 years ago, I remember a friend of mine spending about a half-an-hour in the booth voting. He was being very specific with the forms : ‘I’ll vote for this person here, that person there, but I’ll make sure Labor gets my majority’.
      Why bother. Do we really know of what we are, or are not, capable ?

      Reply

    • Wombat says:

      07:06pm | 19/08/10

      ALP with a 10 seat majority in House of Reps. There has been some polling of 3 or 4 marginal electorates combined and a lot of assumptions made from the results. I think it is a mistake to assume uniform swings within these groups of marginals.

      While such assumptions could make Labor’s position appear better than it actually is, from what I’ve seen of these polling results it appears that this assumption primarily favours the Liberals. Labor only has to hold on to a few of these seats to retain power.

      I’ll go against the weight of money on the seat of Melbourne and predict the Greens to again be disappointed in the Reps. Eden-Monaro stays Labor.

      The Greens will have the balance of power in the Senate.

      Tony will express his desire to stay on as Liberal leader if his party will have him. Everyone gets behind him, especially Malcolm, who positions himself directly behind Tony. Less than 3 months later, Malcolm selflessly takes the leadership “for the good of the party and the Australian people.”

      Reply

    • Glenz says:

      07:14pm | 19/08/10

      We’ll know the winner early in the night. If the Libs win Bass they’ll win the election.

      Reply

    • Fog Badger says:

      07:22pm | 19/08/10

      My prediction:

      No matter who wins, the next 3 years will be tedious, stagnant and bloody.

      The election after this will be won by Turnbull.

      Reply

    • against the Man says:

      10:59pm | 19/08/10

      If Labor wins it will be over for Australia, we will be finished, endgame, China will own us by 2013. Thanks Gillard for the chaos you have caused. Wales is the real lucky country.

    • Steve says:

      07:51pm | 19/08/10

      ALP by between 4 &  7 seats.  The ALP were always going to win this election (even with Kevin Rudd) though. 

      The powers that be in the Liberal realized this late last year.  That’s why they installed Abbot and opposed the ETS.  They knew doing this would limit the damage by appealing to the “base”.  Also agreeing to the ETS would not of attracted any votes because Labor/Greens would have got any credit.  Also by oppsing it they created a difference between them Labor and they were helped when the Copenhagen summit acheived nothing.  Kevin Rudd made a BIG mistake by making it such a big issue when everyone knew the summit wasn’t going to acheive anything.

      What happened during this year when Labor panicked about the Mining Tax and throw out Rudd was really only a bonus that gave the Liberals a TINY (and unexpected) sniff of victory.  Tthe actually result - a Labor win - was always going to happen though. 

      Australians don’t like change and will ALWAYS give a first term governement a second chance.

      Reply

    • Jason CR says:

      10:09pm | 19/08/10

      Hit the nail on the head Steve.  Great post.

    • Skinny says:

      12:38am | 20/08/10

      Turnbull is a champagne socialist tool and had to go. Climate Change is a socialist beatup. Therefore, Abbott did the principled thing and opposed this left-wing madness. Any form of carbon tax is sheer stupidity. There are precedents for first-term hammerings. Both the NZ Norman Kirk/Bill Rowling, and Oz Whitlam communist governments were smashed (well, the latter was basically first-term). Oh, BTW, 4leaf, I live in Qld and my baseball bat is primed and ready to go.

    • Hard Giant says:

      02:00am | 20/08/10

      Australians also don’t like the way the Labor Party changed to Julia Gillard and they don’t like how Labor changed a border protection policy that worked. These are two reasons they will cop an old fashioned election hiding this Saturday. A party that removes a PM within a few months of an election is an admission of failure over the last 3 years and does not deserve to win.

    • MBA Tosser says:

      07:51pm | 19/08/10

      It will be a win, win situation

      Reply

    • chris says:

      08:15pm | 19/08/10

      I’d like to see a winless draw. Is that possible?

      Reply

    • Bob says:

      08:42pm | 19/08/10

      Bob’s Special Election 2010 Predictions
      QLD = 8 seats to LNP
      NSW = 8 seats to LNP
      WA = 2 Seats to LNP
      TAS = 1 seat to LNP
      VIC = 0 net change
      SA = 1 seat to Labor
      NT = 1 seat to LNP
      ACT = no change

      Reply

    • Chris says:

      09:15pm | 19/08/10

      Gonna have a tenner on a narrow coalition win. Good price, too.

      Reply

    • Henry says:

      09:20pm | 19/08/10

      I think Labour will win, except with a massively slashed majority…

      Best result IMO: Libs win a thumping majority but Abbott loses his seat to a centrist independent.

      Reply

    • pollie junkie says:

      09:28pm | 19/08/10

      Well its amazing how people can’t see the spin and repitition on BOTH sides - isn’t ‘moving forward’ the same annoying stuff as ‘stop the boats, cut the waste, stop the debt blah blah blah’. They both bang on too long, they both slag each other off, they both stabbed their leaders in the back and they both have big ears. So cut the bias and be honest, you either support Libs or ALP regardless of who’s driving the bus. And hey, come clean with the debate Tony - he reckon’s Julia’s is scared, well maybe he’s actually so scared that he won’t debate after all. My pick is ALP and may we see a refreshing change - neither Rudd nor Abbott are worthy, lets move with the times people.

      Reply

    • Go Tony says:

      09:47pm | 19/08/10

      A lot of the posts that predict a coalition loss allude to the subsequent removal of abbott prior to the following election. I don’t think this will happen. Even if he loses, he has 1) brought the Libs back from the abyss, 2) had a good election campaign - without a doubt he has exceeded everyone’s expectations, 3) the coalition are more inclined to reward good performances than labor and will feel that they owe him another shot.
      The lib’s get the lack of vision label quite unfairly. They are always brought in to fix up the latest labor mess and don’t receive the recognition they deserve for the thankless clean up job of the latest botched labor vision. Imagine what they could do if they had a blank slate to start with!

      Reply

    • TheRealDave says:

      10:24pm | 19/08/10

      Tonight - Julia Gillard drinking a schooner of Tooheys and wins a meat tray in the pub raffle. Tonny rAbbot? Has a shandy.

      I think that says it all really.

      Reply

    • Nigel Catchlove says:

      07:47am | 20/08/10

      You’re right. 
      The choice is between a beer swilling, union lawyer and a Rhodes scholar.

      One part of me wants Labor to get back in because I know they will make such a mess they will be out of power for the following decade but the other part of me doesn’t want that inflicted on Australians.  If Abott wins, governing will be challenging particularly with a Greens balance of power in the Senate but the repercussions on the ALP side of politics will be great to watch.
      My tip (not my wish) is ALP by four seats but Eden-Monaro to fall to the Libs.

    • daniel says:

      10:54pm | 19/08/10

      Unfortunately, I think the Kevin Rudd issue has damaged the ALP beyond repair. The election was a winner with Mr Rudd, and the ALP made the wrong decision gettting Gillard to take over.  They destroyed the work they actually did in the 3 years while in government, overnight, by sacking the Prime Minster.  Its going to be a Liberal win, just, unfortunately, with a massive swing to the Greens. And the ALP have only one person to blame - Gillard.

      Reply

    • Bill says:

      10:59pm | 19/08/10

      No matter who wins at the polls, a lot of profitable advertising space has been sold over the last four weeks.

      Reply

    • Hard Giant says:

      11:31pm | 19/08/10

      If Gillard loses this Saturday, will she stay on as leader of the Labor Party? My opinion is yes she will, but only because the alternative is Wayne Swan now that Tanner has gone.

      Reply

    • Sooz says:

      11:38pm | 19/08/10

      Before Kevin Rudd was knifed, I predicted a Coalition bloodbath - up to 28 seats. In weeks four/five of the campaign I wavered. But 36 hours out I think they will still win decisively.

      My call on seats:

      QLD - Dawson, Flynn, Leichhardt, Petrie, Longman (my original thought was the 20yr old was a disastrous choice but now I think it was canny and he will win), Brisbane and possibly Forde and Bonner. 6 seats

      NSW - Page, Bennelong, Macquarie, Robertson, Dobell, Lindsay, Eden Monaro. Lose Greenway. 7 seats - 1 loss. Net gain 6 seats

      VIC - Corangamite, Deakin. May lose La Trobe but will retain McEwen. 2 seats - possible 1 loss

      TAS - Bass and possibly Braddon. 1 seat

      WA - Hasluck and possibly Brand. 1 seat

      SA - No change

      NT - Solomon. 1 seat

      That is 18 seats to the Coalition. 1 loss in Greenway. The Coalition needed only 8 seats to change hands before the redistribution. Then they needed 17. I predict they will retain those seats with the possible exception of 2-3 seats. Therefore a net gain of 15-18 to the Coalition.

      Don’t underestimate the damage of the state Labor brand
      Don’t underestimate the damage of the federal Labor brand
      Don’t underestimate Tony Abbott

      Reply

    • Sigh says:

      11:46pm | 19/08/10

      If Abbott wins, we all lose.

      Reply

    • Against the Man says:

      07:14am | 20/08/10

      If Gillard wins, we all keep on losing.

    • John says:

      11:47pm | 19/08/10

      Labor with a slim majority.  But I don’t really care.  Both party are run by a bunch of crooks.  Labor has those empty dream which they can never fulfil and they know how to waste money.  Liberal look at the current team of Abbot, Robb and Hockey, seriously these guys really showed their lack of economic management credential with their bloated and unrealistic budget forecast.  Unlike labor they don’t even have any vision at all and Tony’s idea and opinion of today’s world is at least 20+ years old.  Whoever win the election I am sure this country will be ran by a group of most imcompetent politicians in the last twenty years.

      Reply

    • Tim says:

      12:06am | 20/08/10

      Labor to have a net loss of about 5-6 seats but holding on to govern.

      Reply

    • Teri says:

      12:08am | 20/08/10

      I have no idea who wins this election, but the greens will gain.  I hope they will use their power wisely for the good of the country.  I dont want either the liberals nor the labor.

      Reply

    • Luke says:

      12:16am | 20/08/10

      I predict a hung parliment..

      Reply

    • Skinny says:

      12:43am | 20/08/10

      Hopefully a well-hung Parliament!

    • Marc says:

      12:53am | 20/08/10

      Looking at the various online betting sites-
      ALP 76, LNP 70, IND 3, GRN 1. The 3 IND are basically ex-coalition (or anti-labor) & will vote with LNP. Therefore Tony only needs to find 3 seats in the next 24hrs to scrape home.

      Reply

    • John L says:

      01:17am | 20/08/10

      1. Record informal vote
      2. Labor to hang on. Just.
      3. Labor to lose control over the Senate
      4. Turnbull to undermine Abbott + take over
      5. Doube dissolution
      6. Libs to win in late 2011

      Reply

    • Greg says:

      11:36am | 20/08/10

      I wouldn’t be surprised if your DD election comes true. The parrallels in many ways with the Whitlam era are uncanny. It would be great of the LNP could win 91 seats like they did in ‘75!

    • mik says:

      01:40am | 20/08/10

      I don’t care who wins, just as long as they stop those fuc’ing abysmal adds.

      Reply

    • Moi says:

      01:53am | 20/08/10

      I think the fact that the government sacked its own leader was an effective vote of no confidence in the government by the government.

      Reply

    • Gerry Sinclair says:

      01:57am | 20/08/10

      I am interested whether the renown Aussie pragamatism and commonsense will win.

      Labor or Liberal, Abbott or no Abbott,  no rational person could vote for a Government that has been inept and is still inept as the current one, and it is usually rational swinging voters that decide elections, so I am interested if they are still out there.

      If not then we simply deserve what will undoubtedly come when the almost inevitable double dip recession hits & when it does I just wish it didnt rain so much in NZ where at least there is now a semblance of rationlism in Government after years of terrible socialism under Helen Clarke (Female leaders have a terrible record in the Southern Hemisphere - direct result of tokenism taking precedence over talent)
      No Margaret Thatchers or Gold Meirs out here!

      Reply

    • Anna says:

      02:25am | 20/08/10

      Labor is bloodied by its swift removal of Mr Rudd, but it remains as accountable for the mistakes he made. The pink batts scheme, the BER chaos and the confusion over the climate change debate will be writ large in the history books.

      This is not about throwing out a government after its first term. This is about holding a government to account.

      If the Labor government is reelected, that’s vindication for the ALP that they can undermine our democracy in this way by taking away the Australian people’s democratic right to have their say whether they wanted KRudd for a second term or not.

      Reply

    • john mc kay says:

      07:46am | 20/08/10

      my 80 year old mother summed it up with her insight into Abbot.anyone who has been around since he was first elected would never vote for such a vindictive politician.
      i believe that Gillard will hang on by at least 4 seats and The Greens will control the senate.
      What has been perplexing is the lack of hubris from ‘Big Business’ of them funding paid parental leave,surely this is juat another tax.
      Joe Hockey has been a real let down for the libs and has absolutely no economic crebibility and Andrew Robb’s grasp on the nbn is a real worry at least labor are looking to the future.
      Hopefully common sense will prevail

      Reply

    • Dash says:

      09:20am | 20/08/10

      Happy for your power prices to go through the roof John are you??That’s what the carbon tax and ETS will do to all of your utility prices. Inflation here we come if Labor get in with their Green coalition! Wake up John!!! Business is more concerned about the additional 3% superannuation cost they are being asked to pay under Labor. It impacts all business not just a few with the LNPs temporary levy! And guess what, it will be passed on to the consumer just as the carbon price will. I have an economics degree but surely you don’t need that to see the impact of the ALP?Green policy? Economic credibility?? What about the fact that we have record levels of Foreign Debt which is growing and growing, a $20billion surplus was blown in half an hour and we are running a $40.b defecit now. The second stimulus was nothing but a massive waste of money. the Libs approved the first one and were proved right to oppose the second one. The unemployment rate is higher than it was when Labor came to office and interest rates have been rising quarter after quarter. And as noted above, the inflation genie is out of the bottle if Labor retain power. If that’s economic management I’ll eat my hat! As for the NBN, it will cost $80b, can you grasp what that means to the cost per houshold? And it will be out of date before it’s finished if that ever happens. Mark my words, Labor, if returned, will have three years of waste and rorts and then they will be on their ear for at least 12 years whilst the LNP try to fix the mess AGAIN!

    • MARC says:

      08:22am | 20/08/10

      To all the Lib lovers….god forbid if they win the election….I wonder what all the Lib lovers will say in a years time when Abbott and cronies do their back flips on lower taxes / spending they’re promising..oh did they mention that their costings were by a company in WA who employs one of their crooked Lib cronies..good one Abbott / Hockey !! Oh and remember the lies Howard spun about why we had to go to Afghanistan - did he happen to reveal that he had just purchased shares in military equipment - hmmmm how much money did he make on that little deal..if you want to blame someone for Australian soldiers dying for nothing - he’s your man & the sinking boats..yeh right.Howard just shifted the processing offshore and guess what you still paid for it, where’s your mention of that LIBS in your campaigning! Work choices ...well guess what that will be back to…Lies then and lies now…Surplus they keep talking about lets see how you’ll be singing their praises when you lose your house and cant pay your bills coz the cost of living has blown out due to price increases through stealth under the Libs ..just so at the next election they can brag about a huge surplus…NO thanks! How many of you Lib whingers complaining about all the wasteful spending sent your stimulus cheques, baby bonus, insulation rebates, solar rebates, rain tank rebates, back in protest at Labours ‘wasteful spending “hmmm I’m guessing….NONE of YOU…you hypocrites! GOOOOOO JULIA…..I’ll be putting my vote with you..not those slimey & dishonest liars the Libs!!

      Reply

    • Daryl says:

      08:55am | 20/08/10

      MARC, you rattle on about broken promises and lies??? I give you: Grocery choice, 200+childcare facilities never delivered, “More affordable housing”, “Cheaper better childcare”, “I’ll turn the boats around”, “I’m a fiscal conservative”, “the greatest moral challenge of our time”, “We’ll abolish colpulsory uni union fees” (LIE), “We wont touch the private health tax rebate” (LIE), “No child shall live without a lap”, “I fully support the PM” (LIE), “root and branch” tax reforem (ha ha ha ha). Then you can add to the mix, the insulation fiasco, the rorting of shool halls program, the green loans fiasco, the East Timor solution which never existed, the backflip on the ETS, the backdown on the profits tax, the blown surplus, the record levels of foreign debt, the $40.4billion defecit etc. And as for cost of living, YOU ARE JOKING!!!! When Labor put a price on Carbon, power and utility prices will go through the roof and inflation will be the undoing of a Labor government if it is returned. Add to this the inflationary result of the 3% additional cost of superannuation guarantees and the NSW faction leaders will chop Jooliya’s head off in no time! Don’t let Jooliya Fooliya!

    • looby says:

      09:50am | 20/08/10

      Well said Daryl, you have spoken nothing but the truth. Go Tony and the Libs!

    • Dasher says:

      10:17am | 20/08/10

      Hi MARC, I would have happily sent my $900 cheque back but I didn’t get one. It seems I pay too much tax and contribute too much financially to society to deserve it. I have three children and a wife that I am supporting, get no baby bonus or childcare assistance or family benefits and pay more than the average wage in tax each year. To be honest with you, I would like to see my government do something useful with the money I give them. I am disgusted at the waste and rorts of my tax dollars. I’m happy to be a significant tax payer and to support other people’s medicare and handouts (even when they just use it to go to the pub and drink or to buy smokes), but I refuse to sit by and let my taxes be rorted by Labor backed builders or for the Labor party to pay bribes to schools to keep stories out of the media or to fix a mess caused by Labor’s mismanagement. It’s not good enough and the people need to send a message to our government that it will not be acceptable.

    • Lois says:

      10:24am | 20/08/10

      Marc…if your dire predictions come true under a Liberal government it will be because they have been passed a poison challice by Labor..it will be because there is NOTHING left for a rainy day if there is a double dip recession. Credit cards maxed out, future fund-gone, surplus-gone, Medibank Private stripped of $300 BILLION to make election ‘promises’, IT projects stripped 446.5 BILLION to make election ‘promises’..& this is when Labor were being ‘fiscal conservatives’...heaven help us if they are re-elected as they have not pledged to be ‘fiscal conservatives’ during this campaign….if the Liberals do get in we will only then really know the true state of the economy…like when Keating was defeated and only then was the Labor party’s 26 billion deficit found to be about 90 billion…

    • thatmosis says:

      08:40am | 20/08/10

      Ive made my mind up how to vote and just say this. If labor gets in we will have 3 more years of toxic waste, if the Liberal/Nationals get in we have half a chance at normalicy, if the greens hold the balance of power then the Australian way of life will end and next election peole will wipe the Greens off the face of the earth ala the democrats.

      Reply

    • Holly says:

      08:49am | 20/08/10

      I agree with whoever said if Abbott wins Australia loses.

      If coalition wins it will be back to mean spirited cuts (as already outlined in their costings), money and tax cuts for the rich,  and once again being perceived as international pariahs, as under Howard.

      If coalition does win I predict Tony will implode in first three months, probably cause international disgrace and have to be replaced by Malcolm who is waiting in the wings

      Reply

    • Follow The Money says:

      09:37am | 20/08/10

      You missed Point 6.  The Betting Market.  Has never been wrong at any election since betting was introduced, forget the polls, this is people with skin in the game.  Betting has Labor a clear favourite $1.35 Coalition $3.15.  94% of the money held in the last 7 days has been for Labor.  Another three years in the wilderness for the Coalition.  The Abbott experiment is over and the new lazurus with a triple bypass - Malcolm Turnbull will be back as leader.  The Libs can thank the right wing Minchin faction for failing to regenerate the party with new blood and new ideas.  The born-to-rule ethos will have to go back in its box for at least another three years if not longer.  A pox on both parties for the huge growth in middle class welfare to buy votes.  We need the superannuation levy to grow to 15% by taking super increases instead of wage increases - e.g 1/4% per annum increase, then 90% of Australians will have self funded pensions.

      Reply

    • helen says:

      10:24am | 20/08/10

      You forget that most of the odds in favor of Labor came about because of some very large bets placed on the ALP in the beginning of the campaign, when the very brief honeymoon period for Gillard, was still reflecting in the polls, and no-one thought Abbott had a chance.

    • Elizzie says:

      09:41am | 20/08/10

      Julia does not get it. It’s still all about “me” and “my” with her…not “us”  or “our” future…She is arrogant, doesn’t she realise not every voter wants her to be PM? Many Qlders & NSW voters have had enough of giving a 2nd, 3rd or even 4th ‘chance’ to Labor only to see things goes from bad to worse. GilLIAR says don’t intertwine State Labor, however she has done jsut that with the pork barrelling to NSW marginals to do the Parramatta Epping railway..and the voters still don’t believe it-the implementation is beyond the NEXT election timeframe anyway! Secondly, NSW factions dsiposed of Mr Rudd & the voters may well feel some of our democracy has been jeopardised over this..Mr Rudd was actually the platform for the 07 election it was KEV07 so it is even worse to dispose of him when HE is the only reason many people went for Labor last time. Thirdly, Ms Blight is now Gillard’s BOSS so all the handiwork and debacles and lies in Qld will flow to the running of the federal Labor party now.All in all, too much risk for most voters in those States to elect them I would hope…

      Reply

    • Elizzie says:

      09:47am | 20/08/10

      There is something seriously wrong with our democratic voting system if a party holds 35% of primary vote, (Labor) against 44% (Liberal) as published in today’s polls & still wins government. ... It will only be because of watermelon GREENS (death duties & no more fishing amongst other things) preferences if Labor get back in..

      Reply

    • Roger says:

      09:51am | 20/08/10

      ALP 78, Coalition 69, Ind 3

      Reply

    • mervyn ford says:

      09:52am | 20/08/10

      @paul. Your point 5, the devil we know. what do we really know about gillard. She has been PM for 5 minutes.
      Before that…well she stabbed rudd in the back, she was part of the gang of four who made all the disastrous decisions that were not thought thru and wasted billions as well as causing the death of young australians ( and before the labour staffers hit me on that, if their decision on insulation didn’t happen those kids would still be alive. Also, shows they cannot manage anything. if a business was responsible, the senior managers would have reigned or have been sacked by the board).
      the real julia, if there is one, didn’t want to increase the pension “because there were no votes in it”.
      All she has done is run a negative campaign because she cannot rest on her record because it stinks.
      Watched her on sky news tis morning and she answered every question with her mantra. It was incredibly irritating, is this back to the old julia? or is there a third, nasty julia she has kept under wraps?
      On another point, I hope McKew loses her seat, she is a flake who has offered nothing.

      Reply

    • Heather says:

      10:04am | 20/08/10

      I suspect it will be a hung parliament. My predictions are:

      A) if ALP win (albeit at a very reduced margin, and mainly due to the youth voting Green) -
      - Greens will force through economically punitive policies, the stock exchange will tank, and increased risk of double dip in Australia in concert with USA and Europe.
      - NBN will cost at least double the money, will have minimal take-up due to cost
      - Murray Darling Plan released, and will cost Billions and show that ALP and Greens did a deal on this issue - I mean, most areas are Lib/Nat, so they don’t care who they p*ss off.
      - Most election promises will come to naught, just like Kevin’s
      - Gillard will also get assassinated when people don’t like her any more than Kevin, and Swan will become PM, god forbid

      B) However, if Coalition sneak in, and form a minority Govt with Independents;
      - Stock exchange will rise, especially commodities
      - There will be a bloodbath in Labor and Gillard back to education
      - Malcolm Turnbull will be finance minister, I hope, he is the best talent in the Coalition
      - Most election promises will come to naught

      C) And finally, the grandfathered in LNP incumbents in Fisher and Fairfax will still win, but at very reduced margins, and will be forced to retire at the next election

      Reply

    • Stewart Henstock says:

      10:21am | 20/08/10

      How can you vote for a party like Labor whose leader…Julia Gillard…doesn’t care about it’s own elderly pensioners.
      FACT:
      The total yearly benefit to Aust Aged Pensioners = $16,068.00
      For illegal immigrants/refugees living in Aust = $56,680.00

      Reply

    • Fred says:

      10:37am | 20/08/10

      FACT:
      illegal immigrants don’t get any money. 

      Asylum seekers, found to be refugees, do get some govt assistance:

      “DIAC also provides assistance for some asylum seekers during the period in which their applications for protection are processed. Financial assistance is available to some asylum seekers living in the community (those with a bridging visa) under the Asylum Seeker Assistance (ASA) Scheme. The ASA Scheme is administered by the Australian Red Cross under contract to DIAC. Assistance is paid at the rate of 89 per cent of the Centrelink Special Benefit—a payment made to those in severe financial need due to circumstances outside their control and who are not eligible to receive any other Centrelink pension or benefit. Special Benefit is generally paid at the same rate as Newstart Allowance or Youth Allowance. Currently, a single person entitled to the Newstart equivalent rate of Special Benefit, would receive $456.00 per fortnight. A single person receiving assistance under the ASA Scheme would receive no more than 89 per cent of this amount (that is, up to $405).”

      You can read more here: http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id:“library/prspub/3WCV6”

      I can’t tell if you’re deliberately lying or you just have no idea…

    • Linda says:

      01:18pm | 20/08/10

      I think you have been given the wrong facts Stewart in regards to annual income for refugees living in Australia. If you want real facts go to ARA (Australian Refugee Association) at http://www.ausref.net and get true and transparent information.

    • S.L says:

      11:08am | 20/08/10

      Well after listening to Jonesy on 2GB this morning and reading the Tele, particularly the fair and unbiased Piers Ackerman I not just wanted to vote for Mr Abbott I wanted to marry him! Luckily I came to my senses quickly. I’ve never read or heard so much sacarin sweet drivel dished out by 2 of the biggest supporters of the coalition in my life! Oh boy are they making a last minute effort to get the Mad Monk over the line. If Mr Abbott does win tomorrow I wonder what’s in it for them?

      Reply

    • Gregg says:

      12:09pm | 20/08/10

      There’s a lot of feeling out there in electorates all over that has been reported on and not necessarily showing in any polls.
      I would not be at all surprised to see a legs eleven majority result for the coalition.
      Might even go and see what odds I can get.

      Reply

    • Linda says:

      12:31pm | 20/08/10

      Labour to win albeit due to Greens votes. A wake up call for Liberal and Labour MPs that the plebs are concerned about climate change, the environment and refugees. Go Greens

      Reply

    • Jenni says:

      08:19pm | 20/08/10

      Liberals to win by four seats at the very least!

      Reply

    • Jo says:

      04:07am | 21/08/10

      Wouldn’t it be fun to watch the bloodbath within labor if by an off chance turned into landslide to Abbott????
      Who do they blame then Rudd, Guillard or the factions?? Who gets assasinated?

      Reply

    • Kim says:

      08:10pm | 21/08/10

      For me I’ll go for labor since liberal will put back work choices -_-
      Liberal protect the rich ppl
      Labor protects the poor ^^
      *Julia Gillard takes two guns out and points at Tony*
      LABOR VICTORY >:D

      Reply
 
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