Update 12:15pm July 17: Julia Gillard has just called the election for August 21, a five-week campaign. She is holding a press conference at Federal Parliament right now where she’s nominated a strong economy, health and education as the key issues, had a crack at Tony Abbott’s honesty, and used the term “going forward” more than 20 times. Here’s our piece from yesterday where we asked our readers to nominate the issues and pick a winner.

All smiles: Julia Gillard in Burnie this morning. Photo: Chris Kidd.

Prime Minister Julia Gillard is expected to visit Governor-General Quentin Bryce tomorrow to call an election for August 28. Here’s the report on the ABC, and here’s the report on The Australian.

We’ll be writing plenty over the next six weeks so here The Punch would like to ask its readers two questions: what do you think will be (or should be) the dominant issues of the campaign? And who do you think is going to win?

Over to you. It’s going to be a long six weeks so make your answers thoughtful and entertaining.

179 comments

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    • Peter Oataway, Hay, NSW says:

      01:38pm | 16/07/10

      Dominent Issue : Immigration
      Winner : Labor (not because they are well led, but Tony Abbott’s support seems to have peaked)

    • Macca says:

      02:37pm | 16/07/10

      Agree on both accounts. The Economy may become an issue, but less so than last election.
      Depending on the impact of the ACTU campaign, industrial relations may raise its head again, but will probably not be a vote swinger

    • Macca says:

      02:43pm | 16/07/10

      @Penbo&Punchteamsters;, can we see a word bubble of these comments on Monday?

    • LL says:

      03:01pm | 16/07/10

      At least Tony can say he is a fiscal conservative and mean it. Labor = spend, spend and spin.

    • Macca says:

      03:36pm | 16/07/10

      @LL, that may be the case, but can you honestly see the Libs winning this election? To sum up, Howard and Rudd won the middle ground with their Battlers and Working Families. Abbott doesn’t have this kind of support currently

    • Jane says:

      03:59pm | 16/07/10

      Of course the catch -cry ( or screetch- cry ala Gillard as it is ) is ‘the purse strings will be tight’, apart from the fact there’s no money left, it’s more populist ‘Economic Conservative’ deceit from Labor yet again.

      YAWN

      I think the pretence of ‘being frugal with money’ boat has sailed with Labor..along with the billions wasted unecessarily already. Also proves they are reduced to desperately recycling/copying the ‘winning’ stategy from ‘07….minus the one factor that actually won it for them - Kev !!! Oops wink

    • Disgruntled Viewer says:

      04:07pm | 16/07/10

      Begrudgingly agree that immigration (boat people) will be an election issue because it’s a nice cover for the real issues that no-one wants to deal with (roads, infrastructure, public education, public health).

      Politicising refugees to pitch yourself at the lowest common denominator shows how sick our society is.

      @LL

      If it wasn’t for Labor spending we would have had a massive recession. With private debt about the same size as our economy everything would have tanked because it was only debt that was inflating our economy and making us look good.

      What would you prefer?
      1) an economy that ticked along on the back of government spending; or
      2) an economy that tanked and brought the house of cards down only to spend years trying to get back to normal because very little business was left after we hit 20%+ unemployment

      ???????

    • Macca says:

      04:58pm | 16/07/10

      @Disgruntled Viewer, I don’t believe that the government stimulus saves us from the recession. A lot of companies stuck with their employees rather than cutting and running and the Chinese demand for our resources kept hundreds of thousands of people in work both in and servicing the mining industry. The stimulus may have helped, but to glorify the government and say it was all their work is just false. Furthermore, had the Howard Government not left the books in such a good state, it is unlikely the Australian economy would be in its current Fortuitous state

    • Brad Coward says:

      06:03pm | 16/07/10

      Move forward with Julia “Sparkles” Gillard…if dancing towards disaster truly appeals !

    • Jason CR says:

      10:04pm | 16/07/10

      @Disgruntled Viewer - if Labor saved us from a recession and high unemployment who was behind it?
      I’m led to believe from all Labor voters that Rudd was a one man band and to blame for everything.  Well if thats the case, then how can your party claim responsibility for anything that went well??
      Can’t have it both ways guys….

    • Really says:

      10:37pm | 16/07/10

      Peter,

      If by immigration you are referring to the asylum seeker issue I really fail to see how you can declare labor the winner.
      If Abbott has ‘peaked’ on this issue, Gillard can only go down from now on.

      Let’s see,
      1- she has basically recycled Howard’s concept of a regional offshore processing center but does not want to accept it.
      2- She then proceeded to totally mess it up by announcing East Timor as the location for the centre without consulting the East Timorese government.
      3- She has practically killed the Nauru option despite their president announcing willingness to comply with the requirement of being a signatory to the UN Refugee Convention. Or is she going to change her mind on this too?

      Since an East Timor processing centre is almost certain not to happen given all the signals we have been getting from East Timor, the question now is ‘What really is Gillard’s solution to this issue? Will there be a solution at all or is the “we are in talks with East Timor” her way to neutralize the issue despite knowing nothing will come out of it?

      It’s pretty hard to see where Julia is going with this issue. She is lucky the Timorese government has not to given her a straight and quick NO for an answer which allows her to make us believe all is ok until after the elections.

      Honestly I cannot understand how people can be so gullible.

    • Troy says:

      02:17pm | 17/07/10

      @Really says: The only way East Timor will be option is if the Labor Government throws the kichen sink at them, and that will mean Billions of our tax dollars going to East Timor to justify Gillards stand on Nauru. I actually dont want Gillard to pursue her “Nauru Mark 11” or have the media hold her to this totally incompetent “Dreamland” policy, because if she digs her heals in and the media force her do go down that path, the cost to Australian tax payers would be enormous. All to justify Gillards own misguided idea of how to handle boat people without agreeing Howard was right all along.

    • Scot says:

      11:37am | 19/07/10

      I am not voting for a caretaker Labor Prime Minister that stabbed in the back the PM that we voted for. The Gang of Four and the faceless men of Labor NSW, Vic and SA. What guarantee do we have that these men will not do the same thing again when they if they do not like any Labor PM. Just like they have done in NSW over 15 years and destroyed NSW into a third world state.

    • Scot says:

      01:29pm | 19/07/10

      I am not voting for a caretaker Labor Prime Minister that stabbed in the back the PM that we voted for. The Gang of Four and the faceless men of Labor NSW, Vic and SA. What guarantee do we have that these men will not do the same thing again if they do not like any Labor PM. Just like they have done in NSW over 15 years and destroyed NSW into a third world state. The Nth Coast is a disaster area after 15 years of NSW Labor and Federal Labor have no long term plans for the Nth Coast.

    • Scot says:

      02:12pm | 19/07/10

      Be careful who you vote for: “The Greens today confirmed they will receive Labor’s Senate preferences ahead of all other parties across all states and territories.
      In return, Greens branches will direct preferences to the Labor Party in an unspecified number of lower house seats at the August 21 election, including in some key marginals.
      As well as shoring up Labor’s hold on a number of marginal seats, the deal paves the way for the Greens to hold the balance of power in the Senate in their own right from July 1, 2011.”

    • Blair says:

      01:41pm | 16/07/10

      I’m very interested to see what the Government’s climate policies will be. I think the election should be fought on climate and the economy. They’re the 2 main issues for me.

    • K says:

      02:21pm | 16/07/10

      Taxing Australians won’t change the climate.
      If Labor believe this fairytale,
      They won’t get my vote.

      Labor have sunk Australia in more debt faster than you can say UNKevin

      What’s left to discuss?

    • Disgruntled Viewer says:

      04:13pm | 16/07/10

      @kfnmfnvfnvnekng

      Ever heard the saying that “a journey of 1,000 miles begins with a single step”?

      Maybe if Australia begins to tax carbon and provides a disincentive for carbon use our consumption of carbon will decline (especially since alternatives will seem more attractive).

      Then if other nations notice our example they might follow suit.

      Moreover, whilst using different resources we may become world leaders and develop an export industry out of the technology that may not rely on digging things out of the ground to sell at whatever prevailing rate there is at the time.

      Goodness, we may actually have an economy again! We could be innovators instead of imitators (riding the sheep’s back, riding the tech boom, riding the dump truck)

      But nah, let’s just sit back, do nothing, hope someone else will fix it and wait for someone else to get the jump on us.

    • Mum's the word says:

      04:40pm | 16/07/10

      Disgruntled Viewer:  ever heard of battlers saying “yes, please tax us more”?  I want it to be on Climate Change so I can vote no to a new tax…  Haven’t you heard the grumbles about the increases in all our utilities bills?  And Labor wants to increase those bills yet more by adding another tax?  Mate, go back to your fairyland… it ain’t going to happen.

    • Troy says:

      02:35pm | 17/07/10

      Disgruntled Viewer says: Its that your answer to the so called Global Warming scam? If a tax on air is the only answer you have then you have no answers at all. You talk of “Maybe this” or Maybe That will happen” but you have no Facts. Does anyone really believe that a tax will stop people using carbon? What alternatives are there for them to stop using carbon emitting products? Wind Power is next to useless, Solar is very unrealiable, Nuclear is the only answer but thats been torpedoed, so what do you suggest? Just as I thought, NOTHING. Your answer is, just add another tax so the leftys can all say Australia is doing something, the Government love it because they can spend money on useless projects like “Pink Batts”, Greens Loans Scheme”, ‘Free Hot Water Units” for everyone, yet nothing really gets done. The bankers love it because they have a new product to trade, undevolped countries love because they get a bucket load of free cash all on the Australian tax payers. Then when the world finally comes to the concluson that the Earth has been cooling for the last 10 years and the whole thing is a scam, we will still be stuck with a carbon tax. There are many things we can do to protect the environment without paying more money to the Government, who already horribly mismanage the taxes we pay now.

    • emmgee says:

      01:46pm | 16/07/10

      what should be the dominant issue? waste
      Wasted opportunities and wasted money.
      I’ll make it a trifecta
      Waste of Space

    • Hamish says:

      01:47pm | 16/07/10

      Primarily the winner of this election will be decided by the extent to which Gillard can distance herself from the myriad failures of Labor under Rudd and the extent to which the Coalition can paint Gillard as a key contributor to the myriad failures under Rudd.

      The secondary issue will be how well Tony Abbott can paint himself as a pragmatic centrist rather than a dangerous Catholic conservative.

      We haven’t had such ideologically different leaders of the major parties for some time, but both parties are so desperate to grab the centre so you would never know.

    • Anniebello says:

      02:41pm | 16/07/10

      No painting required, Gillard WAS a key contributor to the myriad of failures under Rudd. She was a member of the ‘gang of four’ around that famous kitchen table. BER was her baby. She told Rudd to pull the ETS. How much more evidence do we need. She is up to her neck in it.
      Since stabbing Rudd (with the help of the NSW union heavies) her ‘tick the boxes’ quick fixes have got to be the worst patch-up job ever. The mining deal was ‘done’ with the three international big boys without consultation with the Australian companies. It will ‘milk’ WA in terms of constitutionally state revenue as the minerals affected are mined almost exclusively in WA. The health plan rips more money out of the states (again WA in particular) than they are giving us - along with an additional layer of red tape. Thank goodness the only Liberal state premier held out. Pity the others were forced to toe the party line. The East Timor refugee plan is a no-brainer - the Australian taxpayer has already paid for and built one in Nauru which they are happy to reopen whereas East Timor has said no.
      If we are expected to take Gillard as an antheist, then the same consideration should be given to Abbott for being Catholic. Religion shouldn’t be a part of politics in Australia and so far, I haven’t seen any evidence to suggest that Abbott (or the Liberals) policies lean in the Church’s direction.
      At least the Liberals have past history of getting Australia out of debt, all the Labor governments have is the ability to get us in the red. It’s a pity there is no real alternative. The Greens can’t see the big picture and their preferences go to Labor. My money is on my fellow voters seeing through the spin. I’m not holding my breath, but fingers crossed for a Liberal victory.

    • Marilyn Shepherd says:

      02:51pm | 17/07/10

      List the failures.  Come on I dare you.  Grocery choices and fuel watch get bandied around but they were frigging websites and nothing else.

      Insulation?  As the writer of the report said “it insulated 1.1 million homes and to call it a failure is furphy”.

      BER?  Beautiful buildings are being built in every school and the so-called whistle blower relied on by Newsltd. was a shonky liar who wanted to rip the scheme off himself and had nothing to do with anything anyway.

      Defence Housing?  Lovely new homes for defence personnel.

      Social housing?  growing weekly all over the country.

      Stimulus packages saved all those businesses who would have otherwise laid off staff - except the mining industry of course who went into recession, closed mines and sacked 15% of their staff.

      Some of you fools ought to read more.

      The reason 300,000 didn’t get laid off is the stimulus, nothing to do with mining which only started to pick up again in April this year.

    • Luke4 says:

      01:50pm | 16/07/10

      It will all about personalities, Gillard versus Abbott. Gillard is now playing the ME TOO! card with all her policy’s, so there isn’t alot of difference anymore between Labor and Liberal. It will be more like a Presidential campaign they have in the States. Gillard the first female PM and Ranga versus the fitness fanatic, Mad Monk it won’t be about anything else.

    • Beagle says:

      02:42pm | 16/07/10

      It might be about policy. Do you think the conservatives will have any before the polling date?

    • Macca says:

      03:30pm | 16/07/10

      @Beagle, I think you can easily find 12 policies on the first page of the following website;
      http://www.liberal.org.au/

      You can have a look if you want, but you may want to remove the blinkers if you wish to gain anything from the exercise.

    • Beagle says:

      05:24pm | 16/07/10

      Only if you take off the blindfold first

    • LibLoser says:

      07:19pm | 16/07/10

      @ Macca

      lol… I’m not sure who is wearing the blinkers here mate. I just took a look at the link you provided and couldn’t help but get a laugh. Once again a bunch of airy fairy promises with absolutely no substance! Still I’m not sure why I was surprised.

      It might be helpful, if the Libs wnat to be taken seriously, to explain HOW they intend to do all the things they claim they’ll do, and how they intend to pay for them. Until then, I guess you’re expecting us to take their “contract” as an act of faith… sorry but I ain’t that gullible.

      BTW, how much does a young Liberal get paid to clog up these blogs with your little talking points?

    • Paul says:

      10:21pm | 16/07/10

      @ Beagle

      Since when does an opposition release detailed policies before an election !?! Is this your first election on the electoral role?

    • Jason says:

      10:26pm | 16/07/10

      @Beagle,

      who needs policies if you implement them like Gillard and her incompetent front bench.

    • Anthony of WA says:

      10:54pm | 16/07/10

      Beagle, they will leave it late, hopefully they learnt their lesson last election, when No policy Labour just said “Yes Me too” to all the Liberal policies

    • Reg says:

      01:38pm | 17/07/10

      Luke4 how can you possibly contend there is little difference between the Labor government and the Liberals when Labor has propped up business to advantage both the companies and the people in the greatest collapse since 1929?

      The saviour may have been Liberal frugality but it was still aimless. Labor looks to the needs of both sections of the population unlike the Liberals who are convinced they are there solely for the good of business.

      For proof, look to the immediately obvious origin of the great Howard collapse.  Work-Choices, the same one the mad-monk is concealing under his robes.

    • Troy says:

      02:40pm | 17/07/10

      @Anthony of WA says: Spot on. Abbott has learnt not to give the Me-Too Labor Government to much info as they have a habit of copying everything before the election, and just like Garrett Said; We Will Just Change It After We Get IN.

    • Reg says:

      08:51pm | 17/07/10

      Hey Troy, your explanation for Abbott’s reticence could equally describe paralytic intransigence. How do you know you are correct if he is hunkered down scared of his own shadow? 

      Perhaps he is being distracted by some cryptic vow of silence.

    • Frank Merlot says:

      01:53pm | 16/07/10

      Off topic sorry but was the photo really of Gillard in Brisbane?  Im not in Australia atm but she’s with the member from Braddon Sid Sidebottom and Tasmanian Senator Nick Sherry…isnt she in Tasmania???

    • David Penberthy

      David Penberthy says:

      03:50pm | 16/07/10

      oops mate you;re right it should have said Burnie not Brisbane my mistake in the caption, will fix. cheers

    • Steve says:

      01:54pm | 16/07/10

      I love the photo . Sir Les Patterson seems to be enjoying himself.

    • Jared says:

      01:55pm | 16/07/10

      winner: labor, by a nose!
      they will lose seats for sure, particularly in QLD so im thinking 76-80 seats to labor and 69-74 to the coalition. It should be interesting thats for sure, two parties people are sick off and two leaders people arent that keen on

      Issue: Immigration (unfortunately). For this reason i have a felling David Bradbury in Lindsay might be an unexpected casualty (combined with this and the nsw labor problems) for example

    • mid says:

      01:56pm | 16/07/10

      I think it will be interesting to see if we have the intelligence to switch off from the really boring main parties (if they’re the same do I still use the plural?) and see if anyone else has some good ideas. The way things are going, this will be the election that no-one cares about.

    • Daisyduke says:

      01:58pm | 16/07/10

      Dominant Issue: Labor distancing itself from Rudd’s failures

      Winner : Labor by a nose

    • Spin Baby, Spin says:

      04:30pm | 16/07/10

      Rudd’s failures?  Are you referring to Minister Garrett and Minister Gillard’s failures?

    • CynicalGoat WA says:

      02:02pm | 16/07/10

      Pivotal issues-
      Trust
      Wastage
      Refugees
      Slogans will be along the lines of “Moving forward’ for the ALP and “Return to trust” for the Coalition. And “There is an alternative” for the nutjob Greens.
      Who will win?? The $64 question. I have a bit of faith that the Australian people will see through the spin from the government. WA will strengthen for the conservatives,Qld should be pissed at the treatment of Rudd,  the rest is a toss-up. I will stick my neck out and say there will be no more than 3 seats in it either way.  Hoping for a return of the Coalition…but I’m not sure it will pan out that way.

    • S says:

      04:29pm | 16/07/10

      Speaking of Queensland, if Gillard goes now, she looks like she is doing another Anna Bligh “trust me” job with the BER Report not yet in.  After being screwed by Bligh’s last “trust me” campaign, I am very wary of voting for Gillard before I see the BER Report Card…  Expect to see a campaign along these lines in Brisbane to tip a few seats back to the coalition…

    • DF says:

      02:02pm | 16/07/10

      Major issue: ALP incompetence and whether Australian’s really want to listen to Julia’s bogan voice for three more years.
      Winner: As the worst government since Federation, the ALP deserves to lose - if they aren’t booted than it proves no matter how pathetic and incompetant you are, Australians are never willing to admit they were wrong (i.e., by voting the hacks in last time).

    • LibLoser says:

      07:29pm | 16/07/10

      Dilldo,

      Not sure what planet your on there mate, but your name suits you well.
      The Rudd government navigated the GFC with great success… sure there was a few stumbles along the way, but when they had to act as quickly as they did, that was inevitable. Given the state of our economy today, I don’t see how you can make such a statement. Despite the extra debt, we still have one of the lowest debt levels of any developed countries, AND we didn’t suffer too badly from the GFC… pretty competent if you ask me.

    • Tails says:

      09:11am | 17/07/10

      What would our debt look like, comparatively, if we didn’t have all that money in the bank before the GFC?
      Where would we rate if the ALP Government had spent all the savings and borrowed more if we’d started from the position they left the country in last time they ran the country into the ground?
      Labor governments are like stepdads. The swagger in pretending to be your real dad, buy you craploads of presents (on your mum’s credit card) and when all the money runs out they get abusive and start knifing people.

    • Richard says:

      11:19am | 17/07/10

      The fact that the recession never affected Australia was DESPITE Labor’s drunken sailor bungling, not because of it !

      Face it, when your major trading partner keeps growing at a 12% clip per year, and your major export products maintain their record all-time high price levels, it doesn’t require too much skill on behalf of the government to ‘avoid’ a recession that wasn’t likely to impact us anyway.

      In reality-town, as opposed to in spin-city, it was the our mining industry that insulated us against the effects of the GFC. Labor apologists refuse to understand basic economics101. How does a country get rich? By producing things and exporting them!~(think 19th century Britain, 20th century America and 21st century China) How does a country grow poor? By going into debt and spending it all on ‘things’! So please explain how racking up all lot of debt on frivilous stimulus programs ‘saved us from the recession’.

      And don’t say that it was necessary to save jobs: a flexible workforce must be capable of being retrained to work in a different more productive sector after they are made redundant in an inefficient stuggling sector. That is how imbalances caused by malinvestments made during the credit boom get smoothed out.

    • Troy says:

      02:53pm | 17/07/10

      LibLoser says: Are you Delusional. Do you really give credit to KRudd for Australia getting through the GFC? The only reason we where let relatively untouched is because of our Mining Industry and because Howard left the books is such a magnificent position.  All KRudd did is blow our surplus to oblivion, any moron with an unlimited cheque book could have done the same thing.

    • Steve Putnam says:

      06:31pm | 17/07/10

      @Richard a few facts: Public sector and private consumer spending caused a 3.1% growth in GDP which was un-matched in any developed country for financial year 2008-09. The comparable figure for mining was 0.2%. These are Australian bureau of statistics figures unlike your baseless assertions about drunken sailor spending.
      The fact that there was money in the coffers was due to the Rudd govt’s refusal to bribe the electorate with lavish spending promises. In all Howard’s promises were costed at three times those of Rudd’s.
      There’s little point in trying to stimulate an economy when buisnesses are closing and workers are being laid off. The govt acted promptly and as a result we have an unemployment rate of 5% and this has been at little cost as our level of public sector debt is below 20% of GDP. To put this figure into context, in countries such as Britain, France, the US and Japan this figure starts at 80% and climbs to over 100%.

    • Anniebello says:

      10:11pm | 17/07/10

      Steve said ‘The fact that there was money in the coffers was due to the Rudd govt’s refusal to bribe the electorate with lavish spending promises.’
      Of course its not a bribe…you have to actually receive something for it to be called a bribe, Politicians call these things ‘election promises’. A Labor politician calls them ‘policy’

    • Bearman says:

      02:03pm | 16/07/10

      Dominant issues of the campaign? - I believe it should be the financial stability of Australia in a world that is still edging towards disaster.  We got a taste of it with sub-prime / GFC, but I truly believe that worse is yet to come.  To ensure Australia comes through it as best we can I think we need not only a tough PM, but a good, competent treasurer.

      And who do you think is going to win? - Well there’s a difference between who I want to win and who I think will win.  If you put any faith in the odds given by the bookies, ALP are a shoe in.  For me personally, I’ve not decided yet.  Traditionally I’ve voted Liberal, however I would like to see a few more questions answered first, specifically their take on Internet censorship, the NBN and to make sure they’re not going to try and irresponsibly spend their way into power.  I would not vote ALP (the thought of Wayne Swan as treasurer during a REAL crisis frightens me) or Greens (too extreme in most policies), so the only other alternative would be an independent.

      In any event, i think we can all agree, the next 6 weeks are going to be very interesting indeed.

    • Kordez says:

      02:05pm | 16/07/10

      I like to think that the price of cigs, booze and food are what shift the outcome of Australian elections.

      I think I’ll be doing a federal vote of no confidence, but Australia seems pretty impressed with the facade that is the first female Prime Minister my dollars would be on Labour.
      If the Liberal party were smart they would spend ad campaign funding on a sexier female leader who’s partnered up with an equally as sexy man. Miranda Kerr would do, she’s an Aussie too so they’d get mate rates and with Orlando from Troy topless next to her they couldn’t loose. After the election Tony could “stab her in the back,” making politics an official battle of the sexes.

    • shabangabang says:

      02:05pm | 16/07/10

      Cannot wait until the debates so Abbott can hang himself with the worm.

    • MarK says:

      03:02pm | 16/07/10

      Yes because the worm has been shown to be so accurate and the “wormsters” so representative of the population at large.

      Do you really need others to confirm your own political bias for you?

    • shabangabang says:

      04:10pm | 16/07/10

      No. Nor do I repeatedly need to substitute fact with opinion. Why do constantly believe that because you oppose it the majority must? What might sound good in your head is not necessarily the reality of the situation.
      Nor do I miss the point. Abbott is a lousy communicator. Do a word cloud for any interview he gives and you will see ah ooh and I dominate. It doesn’t matter what policies the neo-CON’s may have (do they?), he cannot convey them accurately enough. He needs to realise that you cannot govern by bullet point and sound grab.
      So, as I said, bring on the debate so we can all see how lousy Abbott is communicating with the public

    • Mark says:

      05:07pm | 16/07/10

      Yes Rhodes Scholars are lousy communicators.

      “Nor do I repeatedly need to substitute fact with opinion.” orly? I think Abbott communicates quite well. Can he get his message out. Yep. Can Labor. Nope. Fact or opinion? What was Rudd and Gillard was the failure? Ability to deliver a message. Look at the whole border protection issue they have created through their own inability to communicate a viewpoint (apart from the total lack of conviction and courage on it).

      “Why do constantly believe that because you oppose it the majority must? What might sound good in your head is not necessarily the reality of the situation.” look in a mirror. I actually think I am in the majority going on latest polls. You do like to project though don’t you. Keep making stuff up I got time.

      “Nor do I miss the point. Abbott is a lousy communicator” Answered above.

      “He needs to realise that you cannot govern by bullet point and sound grab.” You should have given that advice to Rudd…...and to Jools.


      Thanks again for your OPINION on Abbott and his debating and communicating skills.

    • Evan Findlay says:

      01:17pm | 17/07/10

      Mark,
      In his final year at Oxford University Abbott was called back and had to dictate his final papers to a typist such was the illegibility of his handwriting. Hardly enshrines him as a great communicator. And what’s worse the poor typist would have to sit and listen to the endless barrage of “Umms”, “Arghs” and pauses mid sentence. Your are having a lend of yourself or you are of simple mindedness if you think Tony Abbott is a good communicator.

    • Tony H says:

      04:35pm | 17/07/10

      Aha the last one on channel 9 had the worm going down before Abbott even spoke. Note to channel 9, how about you don’t recruit most of your audience from Macquarie Uni student union meetings next time.

    • Evan Findlay says:

      06:51pm | 17/07/10

      Angry God,
      If you knew me at all then you would realise that my comments are based on fact.
      My source is the book “Latham and Abbott”, written by Michael Duffy. Reference to chapter four, pages 53 to 57 dealing with Abbott’s time at Oxford University.
      And believe me, if it’s written by Andrew Bolt then it’s not worth reading! The man is a right wing fruitcake.

    • Angry God says:

      09:58am | 18/07/10

      Evan, the info is Julia’s own document. contained as a scanned/photograph on the page of his blog. Her words not Andrews, unedited for your perusal.

      As for your opinion of Andrew Bolt, I do not respect people who use labels such as Right Wing Fruit-cake (such a change for that former Labor Staffer) to to try and make a point. I do not know you Evan, and given your contributions that I have read on this and other blogs, I feel richer for this non-occurance.

    • Evan Findlay says:

      03:23pm | 18/07/10

      Angry God,
      You clearly demonstrate the close mindedness of the conservative voter. Stuck in your antiquated ways and non receptive to new ideals or open thinking, much like the leader of the Liberal party who you so openly support.

    • system stinks says:

      02:07pm | 16/07/10

      all the standard issues ,  there will be lots of fearmongering from both sides about immigration, security, health, education. blah blah blah..

      whoever wins the election ( gillard probably will as there are more idiots that will endorse her than abbott has idiots ) but in the end, australians will be the losers again.

      it makes no difference, we will still be doing americas ( israels ) bidding in iraq, afghanistan… iran… and whoever next they deem a threat to the world.. ( while never looking in the mirror )

      as it makes no difference to the world, and because there has never been anyone, whod id consider even slightly resembles a leader, up for any election since ive been eligible, ill be doing what i always do.. not voting for any of them.

      cant wait for all the idiots to start on me saying, if i dont vote for any of these imbeciles, then i have no right to complain… that one always cracks me up.

      and when we get our next illustrious leader who you all bicker about being better or worse than someone else, well, it wont be my bloody fault.

    • MarK says:

      02:08pm | 16/07/10

      Abbott will win.

      The dominant issues will be immigration/border control followed very closely by competence. The usual health and environment will be tossed in but this will be a contest between 3 years of rabble and waste vs 12 previous years of competence.

      It will be interesting to see who cracks first but by the end Queensland will be mad that Rudd got the shaft and the mining tax was a shambles. WA just ain’t going to vote Labor for a while. NSW will find it hard to differentiate between backstabbing union control freaks at a state level and a federal level and will vent their anger. Victoria will be keenly fought out and interesting to watch. SA and Tasmania are nice places to visit. Oh, and the NT will do what it usually does.

      QLD and NSW to provide the win for the coalition with WA giving them some late night joy to toast about as they do the usual speeches.

      /popcorn

      On a side note it is interesting if this story is true. Abbott has been setting the agenda and Oakes probably sppoked her so bad yesterday she decided to call it real quick to provide a distraction to the disasters that surround her with the tax lie, the East Timorese giving them the bird and her performance in charge of the BER looking even worse than first thought.

      I think panic might have set in and the desire to use what little honeymoon goodwill is left has swayed the thinking.

    • C says:

      02:10pm | 16/07/10

      Key issues
      Gillards treachery to Rudd and the enormous amount of money wasted at taxpayers expense and all the incompetence that the ALP have shown with their hasty decisions re insulation, the BER, Climate change, East Timor as an aslyum seeker solution and deposing Rudd= ALL serious DEBACLES
      With a track record like that who would have any CONFIDENCE Or TRUST in Gillard and her ALPand union cronies let alone all the pushy self assured know it alls in the cabinet eg Nicola Roxon and Penny Wong and Tanya Plibersek in the party and the likes of Bill”” the executioner’‘Shorten! All of the above is too much to endure for another three years so vote Gillard out ASAP! She doesnt deserve another term well she was a key player in many of the stuff ups!

    • Rob says:

      02:11pm | 16/07/10

      Dominant issue should be the internet filter.

      Who will win? Certainly not the Australian people.

    • Spin Baby, Spin says:

      04:22pm | 16/07/10

      I agree with who will win.  We certainly didn’t win last time around and in fact lost a hell of a lot of taxpayer money down the drain.  Question is, will we do the same again this time round?

    • TrueOz says:

      05:27pm | 16/07/10

      I emailed my local NLP candidate more than a week ago to ask about her position on the proposed filter. Silence has followed. I will contact EVERYONE standing for office on my electorate to determine their view. He or she who is most vehemently opposed will probably get my vote. I doubt that either Labour of the LNP can be trusted not to interfere with this important tool of liberty and freedom.

    • Chris says:

      02:15pm | 16/07/10

      Immigration and debt.
      Labor with a reduced majority. Senate is anyone’s guess, but no chance of a Labor outright majority there.

    • DD Ball says:

      02:17pm | 16/07/10

      Dominant issue will change depending the viewpoint. For the media it will be Mr Abbott’s swim suit. For Gillard it will be Rudd’s betrayal. For Rudd it will be Ban Ki Moon or Mars. For Mr Abbott it will be the economy. For Swan it will be Henry. For Keating it will be Hawke. For Hawke it will be himself. Whitlam will wonder if Rudd messed up Timor more. For Penberthy it will be about Turnbull. For Turnbull it will be about the ETS. For the Insiders it will be about the ALP. Fpr Blair and Akerman it will be about the ability of the ALP to prosecute an agenda, or honor a single promise.
      As to the winner, I am running in Paul Keatings old seat of Blaxland against incumbent Jason Clare who has done nothing and stood for nothing. I don’t expect to win, but I hope people will find my autobiography at Amazon.com. Then, as Paul says, Soccer will be the winner.

    • James says:

      02:21pm | 16/07/10

      She was in Brisbane AND Burnie (N Tas) at the same time? that’s awesome, must be the redhair. 

      Not sure how ol’ Sid Sidebottom was able to be in Brisbane and Burnie (in his electorate of Braddon, Tas) at the same time though.

    • Roger says:

      02:27pm | 16/07/10

      Dominant Issue:  Tony Abbott

    • Fed says:

      02:43pm | 16/07/10

      Yep, and what a change he will make frin Krudd & Gillard

    • Paul the Octopus says:

      02:30pm | 16/07/10

      And the Winner is ..... The East Timorese government.

    • 1941 vintage Bowman swinging voter says:

      02:50pm | 16/07/10

      You could be right octupus. I think the Timorese are hanging out for the pot of gold from the Oz Govt.

    • Macca says:

      03:04pm | 16/07/10

      Paul! I need your assitance. can you do my League tips for this weekend?

    • Paul the Octopus says:

      04:24pm | 16/07/10

      Macca, No can do. Penbo has taken me hostage so he can make a squid down at the Dapto dogs this weekend.

    • David Penberthy

      David Penberthy says:

      04:48pm | 16/07/10

      Dapto dogs are on Thursdays. The octopus will be joining me at Wentworth Park tomorrow night.

    • 1941 vintage Bowman swinging voter says:

      02:31pm | 16/07/10

      For me the issues are the - Economy, Climate Change, Health.  It will be very close - only 7 seats need to change hands.  Labor will lose some marginals, Christopher Pyne 1% margin could be under threat if Gillard works his electorate using a first SA PM to be elected slogan. Laming in Bowman Qld ony holds the seat by 64 votes if Labor localise a bit of pork barreling he could be gone also.  The coalition wasted this time in opposition by going back to the past - they should have re-invigorated the party with new blood and new leadership, Why keep Tuckey, Ruddock, Slipper, Andrews, Bronwyn Bishop, and the other vintage model seat warmers around.  Abbott has brough his past baggage to the leadership and now fights Gillard with no newly thought out policies other than negativity and noise.  I think Labor will neutralise his only noise - the “boat people”  issue by going back to the “Howard/Hanson” solution of offshore processing and sending a few plane loads of people back during the election, what is he left with - a new coalition tax to fund more middle class welfare (people earning $150,00pa), no real climate change policy (he is still a denier), no tax reform, no health reform, and threats to get rid of the windfall tax Rudd/Gillard bludgeoned off the greedy big miners.  And no vote from me. The party should find a winnable seat for popular Mal Brough ASAP it is a disgrace how the Libs nationally have let the QLD LNP sabotage Broughs attempt at getting a seat. A win to Labor by 2 seats.  Green balance of power for new senate.  Another 3 years of News Ltd headlines banging on as the unofficial opposition until the coalition get re-invigorated. Stage a coup now and - Bring back Malcolm Turnbull you will have a better chance of winning.

    • HH says:

      02:59pm | 16/07/10

      Abbott has a climate policy - how does this make him a denier?
      I don’t want any climate alarmists destroying Australia’s competitiveness and creating huge costs in living.
      Australians are taxed enough already

      Malcolm Turnbull is working harder for GOLDMAN SACHS with his climate change push than any Australian. He owes Goldman (google it) and I wouldn’t trust him as far as I could throw him.

    • Dixon Voter says:

      02:33pm | 17/07/10

      Well Dutton will lose Dixon, that’s a given! Don’t s**t on your constituents they won’t thank you for it.

    • luke09 says:

      02:31pm | 16/07/10

      A stand in PM totally clueless and evasive, can’t even say who will make up the front bench. Laughing off difficult questions instead of answering is the PM’s real weakness. Calling an early election is her only hope of winning and her only hope people don’t remember she was the deputy PM who was a key architect of the many dud and wasteful policies implemented by the government.

    • kelly says:

      02:42pm | 16/07/10

      I think if Gillard has any sort of stuff up between now and the election, Abbott will win, providing he doesn’t also have a stuff up. If she doesn’t have any stuff ups she will win. Let’s hope she has a stuff up!

    • Beagle says:

      02:47pm | 16/07/10

      The economy, health, and education
      On these issues Labor will win.

    • Margaret Gray says:

      03:16pm | 16/07/10

      “...The economy, health, and education. On these issues Labor will win…”

      If the competition is “Who Wastes The Most Money” then yes, the Labor Party are sure to win.

    • CynicalGoat WA says:

      04:05pm | 16/07/10

      Economy…..urinated away the surplus and plunged us into more deficit than was needed….half of which has contributed to building company owners purchasing islands in the Caribbean. Yeah that’s a win for the ALP.
      Health. A national health agreement that resembles nothing like what Rudd was bugling at the start…..oh and those darn confounded West Australians havent signed up to the Labor love-in either…Very national. Another obvious win for the ALP.
      Education…..a third of the computers that were promised have been delivered, all those childcare centres that were going to be built at school sites to remove the drop off mysteriously disappeared on a Friday afternoon (but it was after all only 200+ of them), and the BER looks like it is now nearing on $6bill plus wasted on overcharges and rorting. Another sure winner for the ALP.
      Jeez with that conga line of success, I’m buggered why the Coalition even bothers putting up any candidates.

    • dead to me says:

      02:52pm | 16/07/10

      Labor will lose - wait for the time bomb to be released days before the election aka the BER debacle and true strength of the the union strings yanking on Jools.

    • TheRealDave says:

      02:54pm | 16/07/10

      Winner: Big Jools

      Issues: Lets face it, Jules could be spit roasting babies ontop of Ayers Rock and she will still win this. Abbott is justt going to stutter and drool more and more the longer the campaign is going to go on and Jools will go all Maggie Tatcher in front off the media. Strong, loud and decisive. Just the way she speaks and carries herself shows she has more testicular fortitude than the Mad Monk.

      Get used to 4 more years on the Opposition pews - and 4 more years of whiny Punchers wink

    • Sheeple says:

      04:15pm | 16/07/10

      I am happy for Abbott to be the opposition leader for another 4 years - he will at least hold Gillard to account, unlike Turnbull.  Although I do think the Government has to account for the waste this term.  That could kill them if they really have been incompetent and tipped buckets of money down the drain when we are all suffering from bills increasing left, right and centre.  The problem is the BER numbers have all been hidden and the Report due in August so we can’t tell whether we have value for money yet and I am worrying we are getting another Anna Bligh “trust me” con job.  I would have liked to wait for that Report to come in to see whether there was anything we need to really worry about or not.  In any case, if she does con us this time round, you can bet Labor will get decimated next time round for their dishonesty.

    • Ryan says:

      05:11pm | 16/07/10

      @TheRealDave : what an insult to Maggie Thatcher, who was a conservative and not a communist like our Joools who refuses to answer any questions.. obviously us comrades don’t deserve any answers.

    • Jason says:

      11:21pm | 16/07/10

      Winner-  Julia Gillard just with Bob Brown controlling the senate…. haha…Might grab myself a choc top and popcorn, put the feet up and then watch as the comedy begins.

      Much prefer to be in opposition forever than beg to the Greens for their preferences and sneak in.

    • Zaf says:

      03:07pm | 16/07/10

      Work. Choices.  Remember?

      And maybe abortion rights.

    • Anniebello says:

      11:05am | 18/07/10

      The work choices issue is dead, buried and cremated. How many times does this have to be said?  of course, everything Julia says is the gospel truth so she only has to say it once - except for ‘moving forward’ which she must be repeating in the hope that there’s still someone dumb enough to believe it.

    • Rob r Charteris says:

      06:54pm | 18/07/10

      Anniebello says:11:05am; It’s very amusing how Abbott did that, He buried it then cremated it. what did he do??? dig it back up so Abetz could quickly tweak it then cremated it before he reburied it??? lol It ain’t dead the only way for it to stay dead is vote against Abbott

    • Mary from Wide Bay says:

      03:08pm | 16/07/10

      Livability in Australia for Australians. Having all the basic necessities available to all of us not just the select elite. Housing affordability, food, health, education. Sustainability. As in really. Did anyone read that Australian property is ‘world’s most overpriced?’ What that means is that there is a select few out there making an awful lot of money out of their poorer neighbours due to ‘a deliberately kept’ shortage of 200,000 dwellings in Australia. That is a very artificial situation which I would like to see turned around particularly for the benefit of the young who are starting out in life.

    • RRo says:

      07:25pm | 16/07/10

      We don’t need more dwellings we need lower IMMIGRATION.
      We don’t need more roads, we need lower IMMIGRATION
      We don’t need more hospitals, we need lower IMMIGRATION
      The immigration discussion Australia should be having is about lower LEGAL IMMIGRATION - 13,000 illegal immigrants are not creating our population related problems (including housing, policing, health care)

    • Richard says:

      03:11pm | 16/07/10

      It too early to tell what the dominant issue will be… the government so far is trying to sweep aside the mining tax debacle and border security debates with hasty compromises in order to fight the campaign on its home turf of health. To be frank, this is a very insipid and unimaginative strategy (which was devised by Mr. Rudd himself), so we should expect some sort of sexy environmental platform to be announced soon that will liven things up a bit, or at least I hope so. If the best they can offer is a fuzzy commitment to “move forward” and try and impress everyone with their flashy wizzbang new leader, then I suspect it will backfire as people look back and ask why did Rudd really need to be toppled and want to know the exact facts on how it all went down.

      As for opposition, it seems that they’re not really trying to pin the government down over any one single issue, but are happy to make a broad assault based on their impressive legacy and experience, and offer the promise of a more stable alternative administration. What could be the real game changer in favour of the coalition is any sort of black swan event in the economy (ominously this month, the Baltic Dry Index is dropping like a stone…) that could quickly establish itself as the dominant issue in the capaign and put the discredited Treasurer under even more pressure.

    • Richard says:

      03:56pm | 16/07/10

      Oh and I forgot my prediction: A comfortable coalition win on the back of huge landslides in WA, QLD & NSW, while the ALP manages to pick Pyne’s SA seat and a few other marginals in SA & VIC. And finally, the Greens to pick up Tanner’s old seat wink

    • Louisa says:

      03:20pm | 16/07/10

      Main issue will be immigration (although it shouldn’t be)

      Coalition will win

    • Nicole says:

      03:47pm | 16/07/10

      Issues:
      1.Economy
      2. Health
      3. Education
      4. Border Control
      5. Just how many numptys vote for Labor purely because we have our fist ever female ulelected PM.
      6. How the Libs are going to clean up the mess Labor have left them.

      Outcome: Liberal

    • Sasha says:

      04:00pm | 16/07/10

      Judging by your spelling, I think point number 3 should be your point number 1.

    • Nicole says:

      04:23pm | 16/07/10

      Theres absoolootly nuffin rong wif my spilling sasha. Now run along and brush up on your manners pet.

    • Seano says:

      04:05pm | 16/07/10

      Dominant issue: Tony Abbott - a lack of popular support outside of his fan base who were largely voting Liberal anyway. Many punters genuinely scared of him becoming PM. He costs them too many votes and his hand in workchoices and the crap job he did with health will haunt him as will his inability to be tactful.

      Simply put he’s not smart enough, he’s not Howard. Gillard will continue to neutralise him on the big wedge issues and out play and out charm him everywhere else.

      Winner: Labor. With Labor at $1.28 to Liberal $3.25 in a two horse race Abbott will need a miracle, the bookies rarely get it wrong.

    • Julie Coker-Godson says:

      02:15pm | 17/07/10

      Not so sure about that Seano.  Can’t you hear the sound of the NSW baseball bats being polished?  Labor will lose NSW resoundingly because the NSW punters have switched off from the incumbent state government there due to their many scandals and incompetent and corrupt government.  That alone could well assure the Liberals of a win at the Federal level:  that and the aggrieved Queenslanders over the treatment of Rudd.  On another issue:  speaking personally, I don’t want our country run by union factions EVER and I can’t see Labor changing their ideology any time soon.  That fact alone is enough for me to vote Liberal.

    • Seano says:

      01:03am | 18/07/10

      Punters know the difference between state and federal. The also know the difference between sensible comment and anti-union rhetoric.

      There are several seats held by the Liberals that have a high chance of going the other way. For every one seat Labor win the Liberals have to win two.

      As much as your fear mongering about unions may resonate with conservatives, the atrocity that was workchoices will ring louder for workers and they’re the votes you need to win. Those workers wont forget that Abbott’s can’t be trusted.

      Like I said $1.28 to $3.25 in a two horse race is as close to a dead cert as you can get.

    • Jacob M says:

      10:28am | 18/07/10

      Julie Coker-Godson Don’t sell us short in N.S.W . We are not stupid and understand the difference between State and Federal. Perhaps in the State your in they are a little slow and your basing your opinion on that.

    • Julie Coker-Godson says:

      01:36pm | 18/07/10

      @JacobM:  1)  No need to be nasty and 2)  Um, I actually live in NSW and have done for many years.  I stand by the comments I made and the reasons I made them.  I am not selling NSW voters short either.  I still believe that Labor will lose big time in NSW and even the professional political commentators of various publications are expressing a similar view. I have re-read my post and there is nothing fearmongering about it Seano so please keep your posts to the point and not the person. (smile).

    • Sheeple says:

      04:07pm | 16/07/10

      I am concerned that there has not been sufficient knuckle wrapping for the insulation debacle and the BER waste.  Is it appropriate for Garrett and Gillard not to pay for their mistakes?  Has proper accountability occurred in these areas?  Gillard in fact has benefited from all the bungling and is now PM.  Is this appropriate?  Or was the BER rort stories only a witchhunt?  And is Garrett’s “demotion” sufficient “punishment”?

      Major issue that will change my vote from Labor this time round is whether Gillard intends to legislate on Climate Change in the next 3 years.  If it affects cost of living in any way, I will not be voting for it, even if everything else turns out to be a witch hunt.  Bills are already skyrocketing enough under Labor I can’t afford anything more, we are already going backwards and now I see that the economy has been overcooked and interest rates may hike up further in the next couple of months.  Heaven help me - where is the money going to come from?

    • Marganne247 says:

      04:10pm | 16/07/10

      My issues are:
      1. Swan can’t do his sums
      2. Julia can’t take responsibility for all the stuff-ups
      3. Peter Garret…say no more
      4. This is not a Republic , we do not vote for a President even though Julia thinks she is
      5. What is going to happen if all the numptys (thanks Nicole) vote them back in
      6. You can’t make a silk purse out of a sows ear
      7. Labour will probably win by a NOSE…

    • interloper says:

      04:13pm | 16/07/10

      Speaking as a classic swing votor, Labor will win. Firstly, they’re not bad enough not to get a second term. Secondly, rightly or wrongly Abbott has a Latham-esque ‘we’re not sure about this guy’ problem. Ultimately, the electorate will not vote for him.
      The Libs have to run on competence. The ALP have to run on health and education.
      It will be interesting to see where the Green vote winds up. I imagine there are plenty of votes on Labor’s left there for the taking

    • CynicalGoat WA says:

      07:18pm | 16/07/10

      “Firstly they’re not bad enough not to get a second term”....WTF!?!? Not bad enough. Struth your bar must be set pretty bloody low.

    • interloper says:

      01:25pm | 18/07/10

      No, CynicalGoat, they’re not that bad. The monumental stuff-ups have been on relatively small beer issues. Putting partisan arguments aside, they haven’t done terrible things to the economy, the healthcare system or the education system. They’re not the Whitlam government (and even he was reelected, remember).

    • Debbie says:

      04:16pm | 16/07/10

      Labor will win - not because they have good policies, or are good managers, or because Jools is better than Kevin - none of these things are true anyway. But the Libs made a huge error of judgement when they elected Tony Abbott as their leader. Even the staunchest Liberal (Conservatives in reality) will rue the day he became leader and he will be dumped soon after the election. Just wait until the leaders debate, Julia will eat him alive and make him look like the simpleton he is.

    • BobM says:

      04:32pm | 16/07/10

      Abbott is a Rhodes scholar and Julia is a lying lawyer - you’re the simpleton, Debbie.

    • Debbie says:

      05:07pm | 16/07/10

      All politicians lie Bob - Abbott even admits to it. Being a Rhodes scholar doesn’t impress me. Being a union Lawyer doesn’t impress me either. Neither of them have any interest in whats best for all Australians. But I guess you need two eyes to see things from all directions.

    • Philip Crowley says:

      06:46pm | 16/07/10

      I don’t think Debbie knows what a Rhodes Scholar is BobM.

    • AdamG says:

      02:03pm | 17/07/10

      If you say to someone “you lie” and they say yes, is that a lie? So Tony was truthful….

    • Troy says:

      03:16pm | 17/07/10

      Debbie, I understand where you are coming from but the reality is Abbott does connect with people very well. I in fact like the man, and envy his fitness. I like his honesty even if it gets him in troble, and I also like the fact he is not some multi millonair elitest that just wants to be PM for the power. Abbott has commited his life to serving the public even though he is a Rhodes Scholar and probabaly could have made allot of money if he didnt get into politics. He has a morgage like most Australians, he has 3 Daughters that he has work hard to put them though private school and he has values simalar to my own. Regardless of that his approval ratings are almost double what Turnbulls where when he was Liberal leader. Gillard may be a lawyer, but she worked for the most leftwing law firm in country. I know where my vote will be going.

    • thatmosis says:

      04:28pm | 16/07/10

      If Labor wins we will by the end of their second term be a third world country with third world debts. The sheeple will vote for Labor because they have always voted Labor and their parents voted Labor. It doesnt matter to them that we are in debt up to our collective necks as long as they foillow tradition and vote Labor. This really shows the mentality of voters. One Labor Voter on a Blog said the he was going to vote Labor because he always voted Labor but hoped the Opposition would win.WTF. If thats not brain dead then what is?????

    • matt says:

      04:43pm | 16/07/10

      why on earth is a compromise in the quality of Australian government acceptable…...

    • Ryan says:

      05:00pm | 16/07/10

      Trust, competence, honesty, integrity, honour and above all.. loyalty.
      The party that puts forward these values followed by policies that benefit the economy and return it to a stable state after the economic damage that has been done over the past three years should be the winner, lets see how smart we Australians really are.

    • Shane From Melbourne says:

      11:09pm | 16/07/10

      “Trust, competence, honesty, integrity, honour and above all.. loyalty.”
      Where the hell are going to find that in Australian political party? Let me know if you do, cos I’d like to witness a genuine miracle…..

    • Sirro says:

      05:12pm | 16/07/10

      It will be foolishly close but we are in a time of historic occurances. Very very few first term governments get beaten.

      But who would have thought that a party so long in the wilderness would clinically dump their saviour at the first sign of falling popularity.

      This surely shows the transient nature of political loyality in todays world like nothing much else I can remember.

      Regardless of what the left think of Tony Abbott he has been nothing if not effective as an opposition leader. I think the majority actually appreciate that. Unlike the two before him on the Lib side, and both Rudd and Gillard, Abbott actually believes what he is saying and says it becuase he believes it, not just with power as his only goal.

      In addition its governments who lose elections and not oppositions that win them.  On this count Labor deserves 3 years at least in Opposition to actually learn how to govern.

    • Chris says:

      05:42pm | 16/07/10

      Whatever the issue, Tony Abbott must stay away from the beach. The ocean did no favours for Holt, Hewson or Debnam (NSW), and Abbott will be made to look like a fool if he goes near it. Come on, Tony, you can do it. Six weeks without surfing. Hit the gym instead.

    • julie coker-godson says:

      02:32pm | 17/07/10

      I believe Tony is a volunteer surf lifeguard - that might be a bit difficult.  People make too much of the swimsuit issue - it just happens to be the uniform of the lifeguards but no-one seems to emphasise that fact. I think it would be a shame if he had to give up his lifeguard activities just so he could get elected:  volunteer surf lifeguards actually save lives - think about that for a moment.

    • Swing Voter says:

      02:42pm | 17/07/10

      He’ll need to be away from it for more than 6 weeks, I admire his determination to stay fit, but Prime Ministers don’t have time to hit the gym for as many hours as he does and run a country. Say what you want about Rudd but he worked ridiculously stupid hours and burnt out all his staff many times.

    • Colin says:

      05:50pm | 16/07/10

      1. The economy.
      Surely Labor can’t fool all of the people all of the time. Swan is an economic knowledge free zone. Leave out his briefing papers and get him to talk economics and finance and he’s all at sea. Wasted money, misallocation of scare resources.
      versus
      Can Tony Abbott appear responsible. His thought bubbles on maternity benefits and small company protection are concerning.

      2. Immigration. Are we being too PC in our treatment of immigrants who are not assimilating well into our society. How to treat the latest wave of boat people - should they get preferential treatment over those in camps? nThe big Australia policy.

      Other important issues:
      3. Climate Change. Is it real/Is it really manmade/Can we do anything about it/Is anything we do actually relevant?
      4. Other traditional left vs right stuff. Big government versus small government. Group rights versus individual rights.
      5. Employment - Is the current workplace regime good or poor for the economy/scare campaign on workchoices
      6. Is Julia reliable and trustworthy after knifing Rudd. Heaven help us - Wayne is a heartbeat away from being Prime Minister versus Is Tony reliable/ Can Joe Hockey add/Is there enough talent on the Liberal benches to run a government?

      My call, for what it’s worth: A very narrow Labor victory. Perhaps 1 to 3 seats. Small enough to keep Labor honest and the Liberals hopeful for the next election.

    • SkepDad says:

      06:30pm | 16/07/10

      The dominant issues should be: issues. 

      That is to say, the parties would be wise to engage on considered strategy on issues that are important to the nation, rather than sniping at each other and spinning their way into disingenuous promises and half-baked policies designed to befuddle rather than to create a roadmap for genuine progress.

      And I’d like a winged pony too.

      What we will get is knee-jerk policy to suit focus group opinions, intended to influence swing voters in marginal electorates.

      Which is not the same thing, really.

    • TroyBoy says:

      06:30pm | 16/07/10

      If you listen to Journo’s and the news you would think Abbott is unelectable. But I don’t seem to hear that out in voter land. Alot of people I come across (and I’m not talking about only my friends or associates)in the hospitality business, includes tourists etc seem to like Abbott.  I think the MSM may like giving Abbott a hard time and treat him as a joke, but I think people actually like him. He maybe a dark horse against Queen Julia, but I think he has more of a chance than the media give him.

    • Philip Crowley says:

      06:43pm | 16/07/10

      I agree. I come into contact with a range of people and they are split pretty evenly between Gillard and Abbott. It is going to be a lot closer than many think.

    • Cry Freedom says:

      08:26pm | 16/07/10

      Or maybe Conroy paid the media to look “favorably” on Labors campaigns by paying them $220m…

      http://www.itnews.com.au/News/166670,govt-offers-220m-in-tv-rebates.aspx

      ...or could be he was just feeling generous.

      Maybe Mr Abbott should grease some media palms as well, except he would probably have to grease a LOT of palms to cover how much of a *insert derogatory comment here* that he is.

      Cry Freedom

    • Troy says:

      12:55pm | 17/07/10

      I with you mate, hardly anyone I have been speaking to will vote Gillard, although I have some people craping on about the Greens.

    • Wirewolf says:

      07:15pm | 16/07/10

      A pox on both their houses, I say!

      I suspect Labor will win by a nose based on a combination of Labors slight-of-hand leadership change distraction, and the general prevailing level of uncertainty about exactly what Tony Abbot is about.

    • RRo says:

      07:27pm | 16/07/10

      Issues that I want to hear discussed include:

      - Zero net immigration or at minimum 80% reduction
      - Cap on numbers of muslim immigrants
      - Reducing water and electricity prices (more dams not desal)
      - Reducing fuel via cheaper LPG
      - Reducing the imploding international student population/ visa factories
      - Methods to stabilize housing prices. Including stricter foreign investment regulations and lower legal immigration
      - Transference of responsibility for education, roads and health care to state/ national boards. NO more political influence on these issues such as in Finland.
      - Ceasing of all monies for anything related to climate change/ global warming/ carbon tax
      - No internet filter/ censorship
      - No National broadband network
      - Reduction in public servants
      - Banning of taser use
      - Banning of airport scanners
      - Massive investment in public transport
      - No more public - private deals for toll roads/ infrastructure etc (government sanctioned monopolies)
      - Higher standards of nursing home care by NURSES not ‘care assistants’ who DON’T CARE
      - Ban on all GMO farming/ food
      - Withdrawal of soldiers from Iraq and Afghanistan

      One thing’s for sure just based on the BILLIONS of dollars wasted - Labor DO NOT deserve to be re-elected

    • Gregg says:

      01:24pm | 17/07/10

      Somehow RRo, I believe you’re going to be very sorely disappointed even if I agree with some of what you say.
      Have you got enough happiness in store to tide you over?
      You’ll at least be happy to know that the T Team is planning on reviewing the Fibre Optic BB approach.
      That could save some money to pay for a lot of other things you mention but they’ll not get up and just for your sake, DIAC have already made some significant changes to immigration regulations that’ll likely have a huge impact on the international students to PR visa super highway and at the same time there will be a significant impact on the education sector and its contribution to the economy.
      But foreget zero nett immigration and lower water and electricity charges for the latter will only be possible if you pay more for something else.

    • eric says:

      07:28pm | 16/07/10

      Have to smile at all the comments coming from the Sydney - Mlbne - Canberra centric voting triangle.  The result is in the bag for the Coalition - Qld and WA will change government.  End of story.

    • Julie Coker-Godson says:

      02:38pm | 17/07/10

      Hi Eric,  Don’t forget NSW and I’ve had my bat ready for some months now!  Roll on the Coalition.

    • BobM says:

      06:45pm | 17/07/10

      I watched Hugh Riminton drooling all over Julia Gillard on Channel 10 news tonight - enough to make you spew - “Oh Julia, are we going to hear more of ‘moving Australia forward’ in the lead up to the election?”  “Oh yes, Hugh, you know me Hugh, never one for looking backwards (at all my blunders) Hugh, we’ve got to move Australia forward.” Sick making stuff.

    • GBS says:

      08:17pm | 16/07/10

      I think its sad because Labor will win and on preferences from the Greens :(  Trust me the average voter do not understand how preferences work.

    • P.M.G says:

      08:56pm | 16/07/10

      The Labor Government , at present , hasn’t done too badly in Office.

      I credit it for helping Australia avoid the Recession, unlike many other nations in the world.

      I’m still waiting to see what the Liberals offer our Nation.

      What exactly are their policies, and how are they going to fund them?

      I can’t make judgement on how I’ll vote until I know all the nitty gritties from both Labor and Liberal sides.

      I look forward to watching both parties debate on how they attempt to improve employment, health, education and economic stability in Australia.

      I shall wait, and see…....and it’s only after they’ve delivered their electoral promises that I will make my decision on which party I’ll vote into Government.

    • Andrew says:

      01:50pm | 17/07/10

      You are joking aren’t you? If stimulus spending saved us from recession why didn’t it work in the US and UK. One word, “surplus”. The previous 11 years of economic responsibility (zero govt debt) ensured Australia was not negatively affected.

      As for “hasn’t done too badly in office”. WHAT!!!!!??????

      Then how come they assassinated Rudd?

      Labor has been the most incompetent govt in Australian history and you think, they haven’t done too badly?? On what scale is that? The Whitlam Failure Scale (one being just mildly incompetent and 10 being criminally negligent)???

    • Jason says:

      10:18pm | 16/07/10

      The sleeper issue should be something that has barely raised a mention - house prices.
      In 2007 we had Labor telling us that the Howard government had no answers to stem the rise in house prices and Labor would save the day.  Well just last year alone Melbourne’s median house price rose 28% alone and that’s at a time where wages haven’t grown and a supposed GFC has occurred around us.
      How are (my) our children going to afford a house in years to come for god sake????  You promised us Labor in 2007, what happened???

      The great Australian dream is just that I’m afraid.  Overseas investors seem more important that our own.  Another bungled policy from Labor and this one should not be missed!!!!

    • Against the Man says:

      09:00am | 17/07/10

      Haven’t you figured it out? When you vote Labor, you are voting for a government who will do their best for rich foreigners and not give a stuff about Australians. Your kids not going to be able to afford much in the future let alone owning a house. Gillard like Rudd will let this country down. The question is whether Australians are willing to get screwed over again and again and again…..............

      Labor’s slogan for 2010 and beyond:
      ‘We aim to be the new Greece, financial/economic chaos is our speciality!’

    • Rick says:

      12:55am | 17/07/10

      Labor should be returned on it’s record - which despite some comments is a good one. Work Choices -gone, Abolition of the cap on Doctor Training and an increase in number of Doctors being trained, an big increase on spending on hospitals (prior to the new hospitals plan).  A National Schools Curriculum, the My Schools Website, increased spending on education, performance pay for teachers.  The $30.00 a fortnight increase in the base rate of pension - NOT once in 12 years did the Libs increase the base rate of pension.  A start on a National Broadband that will give us a system comparable to other advanced countries.  Finally, management of the economy that averted a recession, and kept people in jobs.  When people say that the employers kept people at work - that is true and credit to them but that was only possible because people kept spending as a result of the stimulus.  We have the lowest debt, deficit and unemployment of any comparable country - including Canada which like us is reliant on mineral exports (just in case that furphy is raised).  All in all a good record to campaign on.

    • Jason CR says:

      12:51pm | 17/07/10

      Rick,

      I thought Kevin Rudd didn’t listen to anyone and ran his own race.  It seems like anything that went well was Gillard and the rest, yet every mistake was made by Rudd acting alone.

      Just who did what for the past 3 years??

      You must think the voters are as silly as you.

    • Andrew says:

      01:30pm | 17/07/10

      If they have such a great record why did they knife their leader and install his incompetent bungling deputy in a desperate measure to avoid an electoral massacre.

      You are living in La La land.

    • Gregg says:

      01:37am | 17/07/10

      The Issues should be
      1. Economy Management or mismanagement as it has been.
      2. Trust, and do we want a bunch of Unionists and ex Unionists in greater control than ever.
      3. How we fare with health, education, housing and living costs will follow.
      4. Environment
      I would like to think that the Libs will knock the Union gang back where they belong but unfortunately the female factor and Libs shooting themselves in the feet too often over concentrating on how Rudd was deposed rather than articulating better policies will see Labor back in with a smaller majority.
      Wake up to yourselvs Liberal Party and get some cohesion and forget Rudd and get your policies better defined.

    • Norma says:

      02:02am | 17/07/10

      Competence.

    • Faul Kinell says:

      07:00am | 17/07/10

      The Libs put their two best brains out to pasture,Costello and Turnbull!
      Can you imagine the Mad Monk talking to foreign heads of state, er,er,um,ah,ah, ah! The foreign dignitries aid will take his man aside to advise that what Abbott is trying to say will need to be seen in writing !

    • Labor Ruined NSW says:

      08:58am | 17/07/10

      I would prefer the Mad Monk over the altenative (is she Cath or Kim?)

    • Julie says:

      09:13am | 17/07/10

      You’ve got to be kidding, are you trying to say Julia would sound better talking to heads of state? When she was in the states last year the school children couldn’t understand her and asked if she spoke English in Australia. What a look it will be for the Australian PM to introduce her hairdressser boyriend to world leaders as well. lol

    • MickG says:

      09:14am | 17/07/10

      Given Julia’s recent effort in dealing with the East Timorese, I can’t see Abbott being any worse.

    • Anthony of WA says:

      09:59am | 17/07/10

      Faul hes a lot smarter than you will ever be unless you were also selected as a Rhodes scholar. plus whether you get it verbal or in writing labour backflip on it or stuff it up

    • cant play god says:

      11:25am | 17/07/10

      are you serious? Do you honestly want Joolia to represent Australia on the international stage?
      I despair for you if that’s how you see it.
      Turnbull agreed with Rudd whilst Joolia dumped the ETS to get the big seat. Costello retired from politics.

    • Ben81 says:

      12:42pm | 17/07/10

      I doubt foreign heads of state care much about the childish “mad monk” moniker, and didn’t Labor just get rid of someone who had a habit of talking in circles and who seemed to go out of his way to make sure people didn’t understand what he’s really talking about, now replaced with someone who showed promise but is becoming the same as her predecessor?

    • Skin says:

      03:29pm | 17/07/10

      I’ve noticed Tony’s speaking has improved recently. He doesn’t seem to um and ah as much as he used to, but he now pauses mid-sentence for a bit too long.
      I also haven’t heard his staccato laugh for a while, it was very amusing but it did detract from what he was saying.

    • Tony H says:

      04:25pm | 17/07/10

      The only 2 ministers Labor had that I would even rate as “employable”, Tanner and Faulkner, have resigned since the Rudd execution. Labor now how nothing but talentless clowns on their front bench.

    • Christian Real says:

      09:06am | 17/07/10

      Faul Kinell,
      Abbott would most likely be saying to the foreign heads of state, “Don’t believe everything I say”
      And the conversation would probably go along these lines: “Sometimes, in the heat of the discussion,you go a little bit further than you would if it was an absolutely calm,carefully prepared,scripted remarks.”
      “Which is one of the reasons why the statements that need to be taken absolutely as gospel truth is those carefully prepared,scripted remarks.”
      *Source of comments : The 7.30 Report.

    • thatmosis says:

      10:03am | 17/07/10

      Rick, what world do you live on, a good record if you like being in debt to the tune of $150m a day, billions wasted on policies that appeared and then disappeared and unfortunately costing not only jobs and businesses going under but lives as well, a Prime Spin-ister who was complicit in all the above as well as knifing Gunna Krudd. As for work choices thats dead and buried but the unions now rule the roost, an education system run by idiots that are bent on destroying the Australian way of life,  a new hospital system that gives more money to the people who caused the problems in the first place the Labor State Governments but does nothing for the patients, a National Broadband system that is costing $43b but will only deliver 3rd world speeds at best and will be obsolescent by the time it is rolled out, an internet filter that isnt but doesnt need to be, yes your right a great record for losers and the brain dead.

    • Arios says:

      10:04am | 17/07/10

      Voting: Labor.

      Why?
      - To see the National Broadband Network completed - a hugely critical piece of infrastructure for the country’s future - and Abbott will scrap it. Think beyond fast internet and downloading free movies - this network will enable so many things we don’t even think of today (e-health, smart houses).

      Other key issues:
      - Immigration.
      - Crime (petty crime is out of control).

    • Anniebello says:

      02:20pm | 18/07/10

      The NBN is all well and good but add that filter and you get less than what we have now. Not to mention the fact that it takes money away from the other important issues you list. We already have a 24hr health phone service and while smart houses might be a good thing, not a priority for many people struggling to make ends meet right now. 
      As for immigration, might I suggest you read ‘While Europe Slept’ by Bruce Bawer and see what is on the cards for Australia if we continue moving forward with Julia.
      I do agree with you on the last one. Having your union mates remove an elected PM and then not coming clean with the details is a crime.

    • Robert S McCormick says:

      12:10pm | 17/07/10

      Whether people like it or not St Julia was selected by, for & of the Union bosses to replace Rudd. She, along with Faulkner,Swan,Burke are up to their necks in filth.By refusing to let on what actually happened during the meeting at which Gillard & Faulkner rolled Rudd just proves that when, & if it is possible for them to be so, they are truly honest with themselves they would have to admit that their disloyalty and betrayal was of the lowest it is possible for a politician to sink. Gillard is not to be trusted. The ALP Caucus did not elect her. If Gillard is prepared to betray others as she did with Rudd then she will do the same to Australia. The Mad Monk may sound like a bumbling, inarticulate clown but we should not underestimate him. He, along with the rest of the Coalition at least give the impression of being “For Australia” unlike the ALP MPs who are solely interested in doing what the unelected, undemocratic Union bosses tell them.
      Who was the last PM to call a totally unnecessary early Federal Election? Malcolm Fraser and look what happened! We got an ALP Federal Govenment which, thanks entirely to Paul Keating, damn near bankrupted Australia.
      I don’t like Abbott but I detest Gillard even more. The ALP has, to date, dumped 4 female State Premiers on the States:
      Kirner in Victoria who was a complete disaster
      Lawrence in WA ditto
      Bligh in Qld who is proving to be every bit as much a disaster
      Kenneally in NSW. I feel sorry for her as she was handed the most poisonous chalice of all taking the helm of the most corrupt, dishonest NSW Government since that ghastly, now dead, Liberal Premierr some years ago. She won’t have to show she is a disaster the ALP will simply destroy her.
      Gillard will prove to be evey bit as much a disaster as the rest of them.

    • matilda the drovers dog says:

      01:07pm | 17/07/10

      Abbott is a Rhodes scholar and an Oxford blue - and you are?

    • Swing Voter says:

      09:04am | 18/07/10

      A voter and he could be a nobel peace prize winner for all I care. He needs to do a hell of a lot more to win me over and yes I swing vote, voted Howard, Howard, Rudd and now we’ll see. But the elitist comments I hear on this blog makes it understandable why the average Australian doesn’t trust politicians. Vote for me I’m a Rhodes Scholar and have an Oxford Blue. I must be better than all of you

    • Bruce says:

      03:14pm | 17/07/10

      Gillards “Moving forward” means forget about the past mistakes and trust me to try and not make more mistakes in the future.

    • Against the Man says:

      10:44pm | 17/07/10

      Moving forward could also be a meaningless slogan by a meaningless PM.

    • BobM says:

      03:35pm | 17/07/10

      As Tony Abbott said - “Only a Coalition Government can end the spin and incompetence. The Prime Minister wants to move forward because the recent past is so littered with her own failures. Labor needs to move out if Australia is to move on.”

      Couldn’t have put it better myself!  Libs to win! Labor to be annihilated!

    • Evan Findlay says:

      05:39pm | 17/07/10

      BobM,
      Is that a rock solid, ironclad guarantee that the Libs will end the spin and incompetence?
      Tony now states that the Fair Work policy is better than the coalitions and he will keep it. But is this a core or non core promise? Will the electorate get this in writing so that we can be assured that it’s not one of his lies?

    • BobM says:

      07:02pm | 17/07/10

      Actually Evan Findlay, Abbott did not say that at all. He pledged to keep Fair Work policy for the next 3 years if the Coalition is elected, and said it would be tweaked where necessary by an independent body. Abbott has said many times that Workchoices is dead and buried, but you continue to cling to it like a desperate lover, because it’s all you have as ammunition against him. As Julia says (ad nauseum), “move forward”.

    • Christian Real says:

      06:44am | 18/07/10

      Evan Findlay
      I don’t know if you could call anything that Tony Abbott says or does, a rock solid, iron clad guantee, especially when he said during an interview with Kerry O’Brien, on ABC’s 7.30 Report, ” Don’t believe everything I say”

    • Evan Findlay says:

      05:53pm | 18/07/10

      Bob M,
      You only keep things if they are better or is Tony just trying to buy votes in an election because his alternative is less popular. The fact that he doesn’t stand on principle, as he has stated on many occasions his belief in Workchoices, that it has now become his version of Rudd’s ETS. He no longer believes in it because he knows it’s a vote loser. He’s prepared to forgo his principles and stick with the status quo of the governments IR policy. The man lacks conviction!

    • acotrel says:

      04:30pm | 17/07/10

      So Tony Abbott intends to abandon the National Broadband Network?
      If he ever makes it to become PM, we won’t be able to just ignore his stupid nonsense. It’s obvious Tony believes he must oppose and obstruct every Labor initiative regardless of what merit it might have!

    • Party Pooper says:

      08:55am | 18/07/10

      There won’t be any winners - the Australian people will be the losers no matter who wins.  The Federal politicians only care about votes and having slanging matches in the House and behave like school bullies.  They all seem unable to have a civilised discussion and try to outdo each other with pathetic one liners.  I want fewer people there will be fewer politicians so I’m voting for the Sustainable Population Party.

    • Karen M says:

      08:33am | 19/07/10

      I doubt anyone who actually works hard for a living believes Tony Abbott has buried work choices, hes just turned it in a zombi, ready to be revived if elected. Once hes in power he can do as he likes and hes already admitted on ABC that hes a liar. He will twist and turn anyway he can to get votes and when he loses the election, and he will. Lets hope its the last we see of him parading in his underwear, hopefully he will resign.

    • Gary Cox says:

      03:53pm | 19/07/10

      Dominant issue for me. $150,000,000,000 of debt in less than three years. Imagine if the government was a publicly listed company and the directors accountable to the shareholders. The shares would be worth 1cent and the directors (I suppose one has) sent packing.

    • Press says:

      05:08pm | 20/07/10

      $150 billion eh? Big number. Time to see if we can get a bit of perspective on it.

      Let’s start with another big number: $40 billion deficit for this fiscal year.

      And one more: we have currently a GDP of $1.2 trillion. Really big number and rising.

      So how do we look such whopping numbers in the eye? Well, proportion helps.

      Lets start with the $40 billion deficit.
      It’s less than 3 per cent of GDP. 

      Humm. Not so gigantic after all. No great drama historically. No great drama against other comparable countries either.

      OK, but what about debt?
      $150 billion is a bloody big number.

      Well, sure it is. If it was right. But in fact its wrong. 
      Net debt will peak at $91 billion, in 2011-12.

      Ahh, but that is still a big number, right?
      Yep, but against a GDP of $1.2 trillion and growing, its just 6.1 percent of GDP (which’ll have grown to about $1.5 trillion by then).

      So, over recent decades here, net federal debt is really nothing much out of the ordinary, in truth. And against other countries right now, 6.1% of GDP is a really sound achievement.

      But its still seriously big money, right? Won’t it take generations to pay off?
      Well, again, no it wont. We’ve paid out debt around this proportion before.

      With outlays (on unemployment eg) far less than might have been, and receipts (tax take) growing in recovery, we’re looking at repaying net federal debt in full by fiscal 2018-19. Hardly the stuff of generations.

      No tricks here, just the effect of long term growth in the economy. That and the difference between going into shock over “big” numbers vs simple honest proportion - a workmanlike tool. 

      Pespective. Grand thing, to look really big numbers right in the eye.

      Where’ja geddit?
      Budget papers online
      Financial press reports online
      etc
      No secret “insider” sources here!

 

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