According to Andy Warhol, everyone has their “15 minutes of fame”. Looking back at four decades of work as a health scientist mine will probably be the development of ‘GutBusters’, the world’s first men’s “waist loss” program in 1991.

A stimulus package for your belly. Pic: Getty Images

GutBusters lasted for over a decade before it was taken over by Weight Watchers and closed down for being unprofitable (men won’t admit to having anything wrong with their health and hence won’t pay for it).

This is despite the fact that it achieved (and still has) world-wide acknowledgement as an ethically-based and economic scientific weight loss program. Those are rare, by the way.

So my 15 minutes stretched a bit longer than 15 minutes. But if the truth be known, I probably would have closed it down myself.

Not because of its commercial failure. But because of my unease in taking money from men who almost invariably lost a lot of weight but put it all back on when they went back into the “obesogenic” environment that we have created in the modern developed world.

There’s a tendency to think that obesity is a genetic problem. And this is encouraged by the fact that some families are more prone to weight gain than others. True.

But in the absence of an environment that promotes obesity, there are only a tiny minority (those with REAL gene problems) who would get fat. Hence, the history of humanity is one of leanness, rather than fatness.

So the question then is: what is it in our modern environment that has made 67 per cent of Australian men and 56 per cent of women fat, given that this epidemic only began around 1980?

The answer of course lies in our food (highly processed, high fattening - but very tasty and easy-to-get products) and inactivity, particularly through leisure-saving and entertainment technology like cars, TV, computers, fork-lifts etc.

But any good health scientist doesn’t just look at the immediate cause of a disease. S/he looks at the ‘cause of the cause’. So what, in turn, has led us to fattening food and an inactive lifestyle?

Quite clearly, our affluence from a system of macro-economics (economic growth) that began around the time of the Industrial Revolution and was kicked along by post-Depression policies.

There’s no doubt that economic growth has been the biggest single positive influence on human health throughout history. Our life-spans have more than doubled and infectious diseases have all but been eliminated (well, not quite, but we’ll discuss that another time), all as a result of increased growth.

Does this mean such improvements will continue indefinitely? In economic terms there comes a time when further investment leads to diminishing rates of return on that investment.

Growth beyond this is therefore no longer rewarding, but begins to turn sour. As stated by one writer: “growth beyond maturity is either obesity or cancer.”

In other words, things grow, hit a ‘sweet spot’ where all is the best it can be, then proceed to decline.

Unlike animals, that run away and leave a good meal if frightened by predators, humans have a tendency to want to milk a sweet spot to its maximum. Like Cinderella, we often stay too long at the ball, only to find all our carriages have turned into pumpkins.

It’s a well recognised phenomena used in explanations like the Peter Principle, where someone will rise to a level above his or her competency in a work environment in an effort to find an even nicer sweet spot.

Economic growth hit the end of its sweet spot in the western world around 1980, the time at which the obesity epidemic got its kick-start. Since then obesity rates have increased almost in parallel with increases in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), that ridiculous measure of human achievement that we all cling to so voraciously.

But the economic sweet spot, like all sweet spots eventually had to come to an end.

And contrary to the belief of many economists (and politicians) about the current economic crisis (GFC Mark 2 - 2011) being a problem of “not enough growth”, a more reasoned view would be that it’s a sign of the death throes of the 200 year growth era, because, even as JM Keynes, the great Post-Depression economist said “nothing can grow forever”.

The Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan put it even more succinctly recently when he said: “Economic growth is a train you ride until you get to your destination. Then you get off.”

But stopping the growth train (even though it’s heading for a cliff) takes a long time. And few have even thought about stopping it at this stage. The turmoil in world financial markets may make this the time to do so.

After all, it was an economist who said “never let a good crisis go to waste.”

Garry Egger will be speaking at the 2011 Adelaide Festival of Ideas (7-9 October). For more information go to the website.

em>

Most commented

45 comments

Show oldest | newest first

    • Erick says:

      05:06am | 05/10/11

      I’d rather deal with problems of surplus than problems of scarcity. The advantages of technological development and growth far outweigh the disadvantages. People today live longer, more productive, less violent and more enjoyable lives than at any other time in history.

      If being fat shaves ten years from a life expectancy of 75, it’s still a lot better than the thirty-odd years that were all most humans could expect for most of the species’ existence.

    • Tina says:

      06:11am | 05/10/11

      The authors argument is that we dont know when to stop and then run it to the ground like the Roman Empire. But I guess it will all regulate itself one way or the other.

    • Tubesteak says:

      08:03am | 05/10/11

      Firstly, your average is wrong, Erick. Humans had a life expectancy of 30 years because of a high infant mortality rate and greater instance of dying earlier from unnatural causes. If you survived that you could still live easily into your sixties. That’s the problem with averages.

      Secondly, this doctor is completely wrong. It’s not economic growth that’s making us fat. It’s the dilution of first world countries and third world countries. We have outgrown our capacity to produce quality food and have turned to cheaper sources. This is not economic growth. We have gone backwards because we always want more for le$$. Therefore, we find short-cuts (corn syrup being a great example). This leads to poorer quality and a spiral downwards.

      We are now awatiting the next economic/scientific breakthrough that will enable us to start a new growth pattern with greater returns. Just like plowing did for us. Or machines did for us. Or oil did for us.

      I wish I knew what that will be and I wish I were the inventor of it.

    • Anna C says:

      08:39am | 05/10/11

      I agree with Erick. I would rather be fat, prosperous sloth living in the West then be thin and starving in Africa.

      But a little discipline when it comes to food and lifestyle choices doesn’t go astray either. My personal motto is: everything in moderation and that includes food, exercise, alcohol etc.

    • gobsmack says:

      01:04pm | 05/10/11

      The 75 and 80 year olds of today are the people who grew up in the 1930s and 1940s.
      There is no guarantee that people who were raised in later times and brought up on highly processed food will achieve similarly high average life spans.

    • marley says:

      01:32pm | 05/10/11

      @gobsmack - I grew up in the 50s and 60s (in Canada) and I didn’t grow up on processed food.  I think your time frame is a bit off.

      I do think your point is correct, though:  I recall reading somewhere that people are experiencing diseases in their 30s and 40s that their parents are only getting in their 60s and 70s.

    • Disagree says:

      05:23am | 05/10/11

      Ummm… “no”. Basically. To everything you’ve said.

      The mighty and mystical beast called ‘the west’ may have reached a state of economic peak and possibly even tipped into the diminishing returns side of the invest-return equation…. but ‘the west’ isn’t ‘the world’.

      China hasn’t tipped over yet. India hasn’t even reached China’s current level of expansion yet, one day the countries in sth and central America will realise that with massive rainfall and brilliant climate and natural resources, they really shouldn’t *all* be basket cases dependent on drug cartels and corrupt officials… and I dont think Australia has reached the peak of its sustainable output yet so we’ve still got growth left (you’d be surprised actually.. I think we can sustain growth of at least an additional 50%, and thats basically across the board, too - we’re nowhere near our own peak economic potential yet).

      So yeah.. the USA has overspent for a while.. Greece is, well, “greece”.. other EU members are starting to realise that just saying “yeah we can pay” isn’t cutting it when people start asking you to… but all of that isn’t “the world”.. and most of the world still isn’t producing anywhere near as much or as efficiently as it can. Plenty left.

    • Nathan says:

      06:36am | 05/10/11

      what are you on about

    • Michael N says:

      09:09am | 05/10/11

      It’s a response to the OP Nathan - what don’t you understand?

    • Disagree says:

      11:54am | 05/10/11

      thanx Michael… I thought it made sense..

    • Nathan says:

      11:46pm | 05/10/11

      its irrelevant it discusses economics but not in what is being discussed here. You can’t just have a point an answer any question you want with it….NOT RELATED TO THIS ARTICLE .

      I can read and comprehend, even what you wrote was not insightful on any level its a few points everyone knows with fluff written around it oh your projection can’t be possible either a basic economic understand would tell you that

    • Tina says:

      05:43am | 05/10/11

      Anyone remembering that cute little movie Wall-E? So once we are too large to carry our own weight, we will just float around on our personal little carrier while watching a little screen.

      I guess as long as there is still a number of disciplined people left living a healthy lifestyle not too much will happen as they will serve as reminder of how we should look like. So many people now consciously walk to work or take the bike despite more comfi options. And everyone that gave it a serious chance knows how good it feels to be healthy and sporty.

    • Super D says:

      05:49am | 05/10/11

      Good to see it finally recognised that the answer to third world starvation isn’t aid, it’s economic growth.  Somehow I doubt that’s the point you were trying to make.  I’m not sure what that was aside from perhaps saying that the choices that come with prosperity are not always made well?  Perhaps the point was that we should lament that hours of backbreaking labour are no longer undertaken by the working classes?

    • Nathan says:

      06:30am | 05/10/11

      Super D
      yeah and aid provides the foundations for economic growth without infrastructure many of these countries will not have the economic growth. Do you really have much of an understanding as to why the government gives money in Aid its not because we are nice its because we want something out of it in return.

    • RyaN says:

      12:35pm | 05/10/11

      @Nathan: typically they give the aid to pad the wallets of the corrupt regimes, thinking it goes anywhere else is naive and laughable.

    • Nathan says:

      11:48pm | 05/10/11

      @Ryan
      Some cases their is bribery but it is not widespread i don’t think you have a clue what goes on or how the system actually works if you could name 3 or more current australian aid programs i would be surprised

    • Nathan says:

      06:22am | 05/10/11

      “I guess as long as there is still a number of disciplined people left living a healthy lifestyle not too much will happen” not true more people die of excessive nutrition than malnutrition

    • Adam Diver says:

      11:06am | 05/10/11

      Are you clarifying that comment with “in first-world countries”, or is it a broad statement?

    • Mahhrat says:

      07:20am | 05/10/11

      Garry, you’re an incredibly smart and successful individual, yet you’ve just spent 813 words saying things we already know.

      We get fast food because we are overwhelmed by choice, so we go for the easiest and tastiest. 

      We don’t listen to great ideas, because they also take too long.

      By the way, if you’ve got a weight loss system that doesn’t teach people how to change their lifestyle (I’m looking at you, Jenny Craigh, Weight Watchers, Tony Ferguson et al), then it’s a profit-making exercise, not a proper weight loss system.

      There is only one way to lose weight: eat lean meats (or not, if you’re veggie), and whatever grows naturally (legumes, rice, fresh produce).  Get rid of cheese, butter, breads and white sugar.

      I’ve been doing that for three weeks or so now and I’ve lost 6 kilo, and the only exercise I’m doing is walking the dogs every night.

    • Adam Diver says:

      08:11am | 05/10/11

      Losing weight is in the mind. That is it. Everyone knows the secret to losing weight; diet and exercise, but obviously knowing the secret is not enough.

      If you go on a “diet” you will put the weight back on. You need to change your lifestyle, your habits and your default settings, i.e change your mind.

    • Tina says:

      08:22am | 05/10/11

      Mahhrat

      Whereas I agree with the basic message in your post, I think 3 weeks of experience with a special diet doesnt really qualify for expert advice. And why do you emphasise that you dont work out? Your diet doesnt require you to work out? Is that supposed to be a positive? Excercise is not only for losing weight. Its making you feel good, strenghten your body, your immune system, etc etc.

    • Al says:

      08:53am | 05/10/11

      Just wait untill you hit the diet wall.
      Any specific diet will only be effective for around 4 weeks or so, after which unless the diet is changed the body adapts to the diet and the weight loss ceases (or even reverses).
      Try changing the type of diet you are on every 3 to 4 weeks and guess what, the changes continue.

    • Mahhrat says:

      08:57am | 05/10/11

      @Tina,

      I’m really disappointed I have to do this.

      I’m not on a “diet”, I am attempting to alter the way I think about food, because how I’ve been eating is unhealthy.

      I have been on every “diet” imaginable.  I am a lifetime member of Jenny Craig.  I have done Weight Watchers, Tony Ferguson, Herbalife, Atkins and Diet for LIfe.

      I worked for DSTO Scottsdale in 2007.  They’re the nutritionists, biologists and chemists that construct the dietary needs for the ADF.  A more focussed place of dietary and research food sciences you will not find outside of CSIRO.  It is they who taught me that lean meats and fresh produce is what we should be eating - the boffins there call in “Paleolithic eating” - essentially, eating what we can hunt and gather.  The growth of modern crops allows for a fantastic variety of food, but most of it is highly processed with salts, fats and sugars, none of which are good in the quantities we consume.

      Oh, and my father’s a chef, and I grew up in restaurants.  So yeah mate, I’ve got a fair idea what I’m on about.

      The problem with all the above systems, as you right say, is that they are all “diets”.  So I am trying to do it the hard way, but simply not eating crap any more, eating less of pretty much everything else, and re-starting what used to be pretty regular walking exercise for me.

      I don’t exercisse much at the moment because I have a bad back, caused by being morbidly obese.  I need to drop some KG so I can safely up the tempo.  The goal is to play senior football with my brother.  That goal is two years away.

      I did forget an important bit above cos I was in a hurry, and that was “Energy in must be less tha Energy out.”

      Let me give you an example.  I’m about to invite my brother and his wife over for dinner this weekend.  My first thought was to make pizza.  Realising grand final weekend was a bad one food-wise, I’ve now changed that to salmon with a pear, rocket and walnut salad.

      That’s me trying to change my “default” thinking, as Adam cleverly puts it.  It’s a long, slow road ahead, but unless I want to be able to ride my bike again, I have to get the kilos off my back and hips.

      Saying all that, fuck I’m hungry smile

    • Jade says:

      09:44am | 05/10/11

      Not true Al, I have lost weight doing the same diet for 3-4 months and never had a gain in that period of time.  I am currently on a high protein low carb food plan and once a week have a two meals of my choice to shake up the metabolism. 

      Weight watchers isn’t so bad, that helps you realise what you are actually eating. Tony Ferguson is a crock as you’re screwed once you stop the shakes (saying that I did lose 20kg using this system) and now 4 years later have managed to put 10kg back on which I am trying to lose again (all my own fault though - no exercise and excessive eating does that).

      Some things work differently for each person. It shouldn’t be a diet, but a life style change.  Hopefully I can keep up the low carb high protein thing that I am doing now if it does show results.

      Good work Mahhrat for making a positive change in your life and good luck.

    • Kheiron says:

      09:57am | 05/10/11

      What the hell are you talking about Al?
      Your body doesn’t develop an ‘immunity’ to specific diets, that’s stupid. The large weight loss in the first few weeks is your body dumping water. Then it’s a simple case of intake < output, which is the actual work.
      If you manage to keep up a weight loss of ~5kg a week for 2 months or longer I can assure you what you’re doing isn’t ‘getting fit and healthy’, it’s tempting death.

    • Tina says:

      10:26am | 05/10/11

      The amount of knowledge that you all have with diets and weight loss programmes over so many years is so sad. I assume you need a plan when you are already beyond a few kilos too many, but generally I would just promote an active lifestyle, having fun, enjoying the sun and hold off a little on the crap stuff and processed foods.

      Something must be very wrong when people have go through decades of dieting. How did they get into that position in the first place? I hope you manage to get back on track, Mahhrat.

    • Adam Diver says:

      11:10am | 05/10/11

      Good Luck Mahrat, the paleolithic diet, is a very good starting point, and reminds me of the Jack Lalane motto to food “If humans made it, then don’t eat it”.

      I thought up the default settings thing, when I realised I had a huge number of sub-concious “rules” with my eating in particular. I could still be relatively unhealthy, but there were depths I would never descend. I noticed others had no such qualms, my pet issue being energy drinks in the morning.

    • Mahhrat says:

      11:24am | 05/10/11

      @Tina, I was raised on an anglo diet of meat, cheese and three-veg.  I didn’t really know much else existed until I grew up.  That’s hardly my parent’s fault, it was all they knew.  It’s just food smarts.  When we were all farmers, up and moving 12 hours or more a day, you needed irregular, massive feeds.

      Sitting at desks like we do now means you just plain need less.

      I just enjoyed a lovely salad with marinated mushrooms, fetta-stuffed peppers, roast capsicum, tomato, red onion and two eggs for protein.  I figure I put down about 2000-2500 kilojoules.

      At 183cm, I should eat about 8500 to 9000 a day, more if I exercise properly.  If I can keep to that level for 18 months, I’ll lose the weight.

      My issues are emotional. I eat when I’m emotional (either high or low) so the truly hard times come when I’m feeling particularly up or down.  I’m just constantly nagging myself to not eat another whatever.

    • Geoff Russell says:

      12:02pm | 05/10/11

      Mahhrat:  If your nutritionists were advocating the paleodiet, they weren’t being very scientific. Does anybody have any good data on lifespans of people living on this diet in a modern context? No.  Do they have good data on the lifespans and disease incidence on paleolithic people living on that diet? No. Does lean red meat cause bowel cancer? Yes (World Cancer Research Fund 2007).  Are there any examples of long lived healthy active populations living today? Yes. Do they eat a paleo diet? No. Is the paleodiet sustainable? ... ie., can it feed a substantial proportion of the population? No.  The paleodiet is just pseudo scientific bunkum ... lots of theory, no substantive data.

    • marley says:

      01:26pm | 05/10/11

      @Geoff Russell - I don’t know much about the science (or pseudoscience) of the paleodiet, but I do know bunkum when I see it.  Your demand for evidence of life expectancies of populations of people on paleo diets as proof they work is one such. 

      If we don’t have any long-lived populations of people on the paleo diet, neither do we have any long-lived populations of vegans.  You use other measurements to establish that the vegan diet is healthy, but deny the paleo supporters anything but life expectancy charts.  Now it’s true we have some vegans who live long lives, as we have some people on just about any diet you could name.  But there is no evidence in the life expectancy tables you demand to support any form of diet (except perhaps the Japanese diet).  And certainly, the life expectancy of the average Hindu vegetarian is well below that of the average Australian meat-eater.  Life expectancy in this context is meaningless, as is incidence of disease.  If you’re paleolithic man, you’re far more likely to die from tetanus, pneumonia, or frostbite than modern man, and that has nothing at all to do with diet.

      As for red meat, no, it does not “cause cancer.”  High consumption of red meat is associated with a higher risk of cancer.  There’s a correlation between high consumption of red or processed meat and a higher risk of colon and colorectal cancer, but no significant correlation with increased risk of rectal cancer.  Your take on this issue is simplistic

    • GreekSnake says:

      01:45pm | 05/10/11

      On the Mahrat vs Tina debate, I think M is slightly bitter and jaded by the attempts to change using cyclic “diets” and fads. T, I think you have a more pragmatic approach (whatever works right?)... Either way the entire thing can be summed up quite quickly. Unless you want abs like Usher, a serious glance at what you put in your mouth combined with 2-3 one hour sessions of exericse per week will drop weight.

      Now for those crazy enough to pursue a 6-pack, you need to go that extra mile. Quite literally track every single calorie you ingest and invest in a heart rate monitor to figure out how many calories you burn where and when. Combine that with a single carb (cabrs NOT fat) loading meal (I think Jade mentioned this in a form of cheat meals) to stimulate leptin production… and THEN drink the right about amount of water and get 10 hours sleep a night (VERY important) and you might be on the way…

      I should add that it appears to be a long and draining process that requires months of dedication, not an info-mercial purchase and “15 minutes a day”.

    • Sean says:

      10:17pm | 05/10/11

      @Marley

      If you want the most comprehensive research in human history on how diet effects life spans and disease, check out the China Study. Plenty of real world info about animal vs plant based diets. The stats are pretty irrefutable, and if you approach it with an unbiased, scientific mind, it will likely change your views on red meat(it did with me, a former omnivore who thought he ‘needed’ meat for athletic reasons).

    • Geoff Russell says:

      08:00am | 06/10/11

      @marley: There is plenty of data on disease rates of vegans, vegetarians and omnivores in many contexts. Have a look at pubmed. Standardised mortality rates at all ages for vegetarians has been compared with omnivores in the UK ... typically the former is about 50% of the latter for all major diseases. Hence, they live longer. There is plenty of data. There isn’t as much data on vegans but there is more than enough to show that, generally speaking, they are healthier than the norm. Of course, chips and coke is vegan, so there will be sickly vegans and healthy vegans. With the paleodiet, there is nothing that would pass for data on this lot. Maybe there will be one day if enough people adopt the data, but the environmental impacts would be devastating if large numbers of people did that. Sure you can have sickly vegetarians, there are plenty in India. There are plenty of sickly non-vegetarians in India ... so what. 

      As for the correlation/causation debate. The World Cancer Research Fund report is written by epidemiologists who are obsessively careful about the distinction and they define exactly what is required for their use of the phrase “A causes B”.  Having done that, they are explicit ... red and processed meat CAUSE bowel cancer. It’s not my judgment, but the view of that report with its 150+ scientific authors. Google the report and read the relevant section.

    • marley says:

      08:36am | 06/10/11

      @Sean - actually, I’ve read several refutations of the statistics and methodology used in the China Study.

    • Geoff Russell says:

      07:36am | 05/10/11

      According to the FAO, we have an extra 160 Calories per day more in the food supply now than we had in 1980.  Given that this won’t be equitably distributed, some people are eating way more extra food than this. Are we less active now than in 1980? Show me the data. I’d guess yes. More mums and dads dropping kids off at school instead of walking ... superschools which mean more travelling, making walking less viable.  Nothing else springs to mind, maybe that’s enough. Explaining obesity by “economic growth” is rather vague ... not really specific enough. There are all kinds of ways we could have economic growth without expanding the food supply or reducing exercise ... more rich people could just mean more gyms.

    • Mahhrat says:

      07:56am | 05/10/11

      Re the school thing, definitely, Geoff.  My kid gets dropped off and catches the bus home.  I remember as a kid walking a mile each way each day.

      I asked Em to walk such a distance, she whined.  Of course, I told her to suck it up and get her shoes on, but them I’m nice like that.  Funny thing was, we got into an epic game of number-plate counting, and she’d walked 4 km before she knew it.

    • Nick says:

      09:14am | 05/10/11

      The best of example of this is Gatorade. The drink was originally created in 1965 and tasted disgusting. It was eventually bought by a large corporate, who must have sat around a boardroom and though “how can we make more money from this”. They added a ton of sugar, and made everyone think that to perform in any capacity in sport, that you needed this drink for hydration.

      Surprise Surprise, fat kids who walk to school get “hydrated” by Gatorade, even though it’s mainly only necessary for elite, high level athletes. I’m glad I read this article, what’s going to happen to our economy when corporations run out of money to take from consumers?

    • Tina says:

      11:05am | 05/10/11

      I remember the introduction of Red Bull. Noone took them seriously trying to sell something so ridiculously overpriced. But it hit like a bomb. The kids loved it (and still do?).

      The problem is that we are programmed to find rich foods and drinks tasty as there was a time we needed to consume whatever we can get our hands on - the richer the better. And now we love Gatorade and Double Down Burgers.

    • mick says:

      11:13am | 05/10/11

      Bring on a fat tax so that Australians get off their fat behinds, buy some real food and begin to put themselves out by actually cooking food rather than buying it from a takeaway.

    • Tina says:

      11:26am | 05/10/11

      Or maybe incentives for gyms? My gym is so blo*dy expensive.

    • malohi says:

      01:53pm | 05/10/11

      My gym is $6 a week. 24 hour entry. Up to 70 kilo dumbells.
      Yeeeeahh Boooiiiii

    • Kika says:

      02:50pm | 05/10/11

      Or rebates from your health insurance for having a gym membership?

    • St. Michael says:

      11:35am | 05/10/11

      “So the question then is: what is it in our modern environment that has made 67 per cent of Australian men and 56 per cent of women fat, given that this epidemic only began around 1980? The answer of course lies in our food ... and inactivity .... But any good health scientist doesn’t just look at the immediate cause of a disease. S/he looks at the ‘cause of the cause’. So what, in turn, has led us to fattening food and an inactive lifestyle? Quite clearly, our affluence from a system of macro-economics (economic growth) that began around the time of the Industrial Revolution and was kicked along by post-Depression policies.”

      For an article about economics, this polemic shows surprising ignorance of the economic explanation for the obesity rate.  For a start it doesn’t compare similar periods of high economic growth back through history—where, again, there was no obesity epidemic.

      Basically, the prevailing economic theory (Tim Herford’s “The Logic of Life” goes into it) which explains the high obesity rate in first world countries is the availability of high-reliability medicine.

      We are all rational beings.  “Rational” should not be confused with “philosopher”.  It merely means we know how to make economic decisions—that is, decisions about what resources to put where—with surprising sophistication and quite without a need for conscious thinking.  We do it every single day.

      It’s similar to how we can catch a ball: to catch one, you have to know where to put your hand.  Which means you have to know how and where the ball is moving.  Calculating the speed, bearing, and arc of an incoming ball is reliant on being able to unconsciously make physics calculations that would normally consume bales of paper if rendered out longhand.  But we do it in a matter of seconds from fairly early in childhood, with a pretty solid success rate.  Fair enough, a lot of this is due to biological pattern recognition, but that is still a significant feat for an organism to perform.  And it’s the least of our physical capabilities.

      We are no less capable in our economic capabilites.  Indeed it’s one of the reasons we’re the dominant species on the planet.  Human beings are doing exactly the same thing to economic decisions, one example of which is deciding how much we eat.  Fundamentally, every obese person is constantly making an unconscious but rational economic decision that the risk of injury or death due to obesity is lower than the perceived benefit of satisfaction that eating to excess affords.

      The reason they have a rationale for thinking the risk of death or injury is low is because our own recent medical advances have rendered those risks statistically low.  Most ‘first” heart attacks are survived.  Diabetes can be treated.  High blood pressure is amenable to medication, and STENTS can be put in when an artery clogs.  They also have the economic factor that, unlike our ancestors who were drawing up in French caves somewhere, they don’t have an economic imperative to be able to move fast at a moment’s notice due to the imminent arrival of a predator; man is the top of the food chain and has no natural predators other than himself (but again, the odds of being killed by another human being are similarly low).  That, too, factors unconsciously into the decision.

      Take the drop in cigarette use: when smoking was linked with lung cancer, and the fact widely propagated, smoking rates began to drop, and they remain low, chiefly because most people make the unconscious and rational calculation that the benefits are outweighed by the risks.  That is mainly because lung cancer can’t be cured.  Conversely, I’m willing to bet that once the rumoured vaccine or cure for skin cancer arrives, you’ll be seeing more instances of sunburn across the board - because more people will rationally calculate the risks and conclude it’s okay to get a tan.

      Like I said, these aren’t things we’re consciously aware of.  But they don’t have much to do with Big Food or Bad Parenting.  It’s a counterintuitive conclusion, but when you look at the statistics in economics, there are a lot of counterintuitive conclusions that fit the data much more strongly than the obvious conclusion.

    • anonymous says:

      02:37pm | 05/10/11

      Still jogging, mostly walking, (I lied) around the joint, avoiding concrete in favour of grass/dirt track, slogging it out for around 14k in North Qld, not every day though, (like a single malt), trying to stay alive as long as possible, so that I know what’s going on. Age 73. Alone. There has to be more. Have to be anonymous here. There’s lots of blokes ...and ladies….same thing.

    • The Punch Card says:

      02:41pm | 05/10/11

      only fat cats want economic growth and Geelong Grand Final victories!

 

Facebook Recommendations

Read all about it

Punch live

Up to the minute Twitter chatter

ToryShepherd

@Bogans_Heroes @1fatbogan Ha! So Adelaide, so creepy. Gilles St, then Unley, then Pembroke.

Paul Colgan

@joekiely just beat the crus. No sweat eh?

Paul Colgan

@bolgo101 Stick ROG in front of the posts and you still have white knuckles

Paul Colgan

@joekiely how far out was he?

Recent posts

The latest and greatest

The Punch is moving house

The Punch is moving house

Good morning Punchers. After four years of excellent fun and great conversation, this is the final post…

Will Pope Francis have the vision to tackle this?

Will Pope Francis have the vision to tackle this?

I have had some close calls, one that involved what looked to me like an AK47 pointed my way, followed…

Advocating risk management is not “victim blaming”

Advocating risk management is not “victim blaming”

In a world in which there are still people who subscribe to the vile notion that certain victims of sexual…

Nosebleed Section

choice ringside rantings

From: Hasbro, go straight to gaol, do not pass go

Tim says:

They should update other things in the game too. Instead of a get out of jail free card, they should have a Dodgy Lawyer card that not only gets you out of jail straight away but also gives you a fat payout in compensation for daring to arrest you in the first place. Instead of getting a hotel when you… [read more]

From: A guide to summer festivals especially if you wouldn’t go

Kel says:

If you want a festival for older people or for families alike, get amongst the respectable punters at Bluesfest. A truly amazing festival experience to be had of ALL AGES. And all the young "festivalgoers" usually write themselves off on the first night, only to never hear from them again the rest of… [read more]

Gentle jabs to the ribs

Superman needs saving

Superman needs saving

Can somebody please save Superman? He seems to be going through a bit of a crisis. Eighteen months ago,… Read more

28 comments

Newsletter

Read all about it

Sign up to the free News.com.au newsletter