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Don’t blame the Weather Bureau for dud forecasts

Anthony Sharwood

by Anthony Sharwood

09 Dec 05:55am

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Filed under: Bureau Of Meteorology, Floods, Forecasts, Hurricane Katrina, Weather

103 comments

Everyone loves to bag the weatherman. But the cold, hard truth of the matter is that weather forecasts have become extremely reliable. It’s everyone else who gets it wrong.

Hurricane Katrina: that sucker was never going to miss.

By “everyone else” I mean both the general public and the media. As messengers, the media often over-simplify the bureau’s raw data to the point of abstraction, while the public takes the game of Chinese Whispers a step further, wildly misinterpreting the media’s already-distorted forecasts.

It happens every day. A forecast that says “slight chance of a shower” becomes an umbrella icon on a ditzy weather presenter’s weather chart, which the public then read as a certain deluge.

Conversely, when a forecast reads mostly fine, out come the little icons of the sun wearing sunnies, and out come the whinges when a brief downpour ruins someone’s barbie.

Occasionally, of course, the bureau gets a forecast dead wrong. When that happens, the myth of forecasters being about as accurate as racing tipsters or a 1-800 astrology line is perpetuated.

The infamous and extremely expensive Sydney hailstorm of 1998 is one such case, and the Bureau paid for it for years afterwards, enduring a shellacking from talkback radio jocks for failing to inform an unprepared public of the exact time these ice chunks the size of grapefruits would strike (like the public could have done anything about it anyway).

The meteorological goalposts shifted after that, and the NSW Bureau was forced, through sheer weight of ignorant public outcry, to include warnings of things like “potentially damaging winds and severe hail” anytime there was half a chance of a regular afternoon thunderstorm.

But mostly, the Weather Bureau is very, very good at seeing the big events coming. A week before Victoria’s devastating Black Saturday bushfires, temperatures in the mid-40s across Victoria were predicted. Melbourne hit 46 that bleak and fateful day, and while it was a shifty late Southerly change that changed the wind direction and caused the damage, there was still an air of “we weren’t sufficiently warned” in the aftermath.

The all-time, world best practise case of a complacent public largely ignoring what turned out to be a stunningly accurate forecast was America’s Hurricane Katrina. At least three days before the massive Category 5 storm in 2005, all kinds of dire warnings were issued.

Then, about a day and a half before the storm’s full fury lashed New Orleans, America’s National Weather Service issued this. Quite simply, it is the most unbelievably frank, forthright, jargon-free forecast of all-time, yet still many managed to dismiss it.

Here it is in full. Read it and weep.

...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED…

.HURRICANE KATRINA…A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH…RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS…PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL…LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE…INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY…A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD…AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES
AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS…PETS…AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS…AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING…BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE…OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE…ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET…DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!

Wow. What part of “incredible human suffering” and “certain death” didn’t the average person understand? Not to mention the dawdling George Bush and his ACME response crew.

Closer to home, much of south east Australia and the Murray Darling basin is experiencing floods this week. The rain that brought the floods was no Hurricane Katrina, but it was forecast well in advance, like today’s follow up rain.

On Monday, police in Wagga Wagga said their advance forecast suggested 80-100mm could fall on the already flood-afflicted Riverina town by Thursday. Check this today to see how that prediction is holding up.

In all likelihood, the prediction will be close to the mark. Around 70mm fell overnight, and even if no more falls today, the three-day-out call was accurate agan. The Weather Bureau is pretty spot on these days. Maybe we could all give them a bit of credit by actually listening carefully to what they say once in a while.

* News Ltd online mastheads and news.com.au are rolling out an enhanced weather page this week. Try this link to the Daily Telegraph’s Sydney forecast for a sneaky peek.

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103 comments

Show oldest | newest first

    • Brad of Bentleigh says:

      05:38am | 09/12/10

      How about their intermediate term forecasts? All predict drier than expected, yet, here we all are, wearing gumboots.

      Reply

    • Ben Haslem says:

      08:49am | 09/12/10

      Wrong. BOM has been predicting average to above average rainfall in SE Australia for months.

    • Steely Dan says:

      09:20am | 09/12/10

      @ Brad

      Ben’s right.  They’ve been predicting the warmer months to be very wet since early Autumn at least.

    • Alyssa KT says:

      09:31am | 09/12/10

      Ben is correct.

    • Justin says:

      10:01am | 09/12/10

      Look it up for yourselves:

      http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/archive/rainfall/20100824.shtml

      National Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: probabilities for Spring 2010, issued 24th August 2010

      Wetter than normal spring favoured for southwest WA
      The national outlook for total rainfall over spring (September to November), is neutral for most of the country, with the odds favouring neither wetter nor drier conditions. The main exception to this is in southwest WA, where a wetter than normal spring is favoured. There is also a slight shift toward a wetter spring in northeastern NSW, along with a shift toward a drier spring in Tasmania and southern Victoria.

      SE Aus: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/archive/rainfall/20100824_seaus.shtml

      Neutral rainfall outlook over most of southeastern Australia
      The outlook for spring (September to November) rainfall is neutral for most of southeastern Australia, with the odds favouring neither wetter nor drier conditions. The exceptions to this are in Tasmania and southern Victoria where a drier spring is favoured, and northeastern NSW where there is a slight tendency favouring wetter conditions.

      Both of those were for Sept - Nov (Spring). Good luck arguing reality was anywhere near either of those!

    • Justin says:

      10:59am | 09/12/10

      maybe,

      You’ve just demonstrated the reality of how the BoM works. Their August forecast for a 3 month period had fallen over within less than a month! So much so, they ramped up the chance of rainfall in the next one, but even that says:

      For the remainder of Australia, namely most of Victoria and Tasmania as well as the remainder of WA, the outlook is neutral with odds between 40 and 60%. This means that the chance of a wetter than average December quarter are about as likely as the chance of below average conditions in these areas.

      Look at the next one - even more chance of more rainfall. Why, because there was more rain than forecast in the previous one.

      That’s not forecasting, that’s observation.

      Context man, context.

    • Brad of Bentleigh says:

      03:21pm | 09/12/10

      Look at the text in Justin’s c’n'p… could they be any more ambiguous?
      I might have been basing my intermediate term forecasts on CSIRO announcements, which read exactly as Justin’s do, so the point remains.

      The LaNina event would of course lead anyone with a passable knowledge of such things to say “it’s going to pi$$ down!”.

      I’m wondering why the author felt the need to even write this bit in the first place. Did I miss some public criticism of the BOM lately? By and large, day to day forecasts seem fine to me… longer term though, no one has any idea, all evidence suggests this to be the case.

    • maybe says:

      03:26pm | 09/12/10

      No Justin, the links you posted were for spring, which didn’t have the freaky rainfall.  the ones I posted were for summer.  What are you like?

    • Ant Sharwood says:

      04:02pm | 09/12/10

      I guess the main point of this argument within an argument is that I wasn’t really talking about long range forecasting in this story. Was mostly just talking about forecasts in the 7 day and less range. My fault really for not specifying.

    • Justin says:

      04:05pm | 09/12/10

      maybe,

      What a mistake I made! Of course! It only started raining 9 days ago! Oh, wait a minute….

      Glad you posted about Summer. Oh, hang on again! October, November & December - Summer starts at a funny time of year around your neck of the woods. But at least it’s no wetter or drier than usual in Victoria just as your link said. Whoops….

      Damn those facts!

    • Hate this dry Spring! says:

      06:25pm | 09/12/10

      Youre spot on. The Weekly Times has it on record, Drier Winter and forecast for summer. Dont think the ywere forecasting the weather in this country. Werent they forecasting “global warming”?
      How many forecasters are posting here anyway, protecting their “reputation”
      Dont they realise its illegal to do so?

    • iansand says:

      06:01am | 09/12/10

      That Katrina forecast is totally inadequate.  Not one mention of the levees failing.

      I think the Bureau does a great job.  Whether or not we get rain can depend on a prediction of the track of a weather system.  If we get onshore winds it rains.  If the winds are offshore it is dry.  Whether the winds are offshore or onshore depends on the location of the centre of the relevant weather system.  It is a pretty tough call sometimes.

      One place where I think they are inadequate is explaining that the words they use have specific and precise meanings.  Showers are not rain, and rain is not storms.  They don’t explain what windspeed really means, and that there can be gusts or squalls of much greater strength.  If the Bureau does it badly the secondary providers don’t even try.

      Reply

    • maybe says:

      10:34am | 09/12/10

      Sh!t man, if you read all that, would you honestly be all ‘but they didn’t say the levees will fail, so I’m just going to hang out in my house which I’ve told in all likelihood will collapse and I’ll have no electricity and water or food or anything for weeks.’  You’re an idiot. Also, they’re meteoroligists, not structural engineers.

    • Carter says:

      10:41am | 09/12/10

      iansand,

      a meteorologist is not an expert on the structural integrity of levees. They can comment on the effect to built environments based on past experience and weather modelling. None of this has been done to levees, which in many cases differ from levee to levee.

      The Bureau also have a page (referenced on all predictions) that explains weather terms. Look it up.

    • Damo says:

      11:05am | 09/12/10

      I don’t think that the weather bureau should comment on the condition or effectiveness of the levies, its the weather dude. If ou want a report on the levies, you should be pointing the finger at the Authorities who had access to this weather warning!

    • Ashlee says:

      11:48am | 09/12/10

      I’m with maybe here! That Katrina forecast would have been MORE than enough warning for me to flee. If something like that was forecast for Darwin I’d be heading down south quick smart. I hope you’re kidding otherwise you’re an idiot iansand.

    • iansand says:

      12:15pm | 09/12/10

      Oh dear.  Team Serious Little Vegemite has been let out to play.

    • Anne71 says:

      12:51pm | 09/12/10

      Ummm, everyone? I’m pretty sure that iansand’s comment about the levees was sarcasm. Don’t they have it where you come from?

    • maybe says:

      03:31pm | 09/12/10

      iansand, my apologies if you were being sarcastic.  Whilst I have heard of sarcasm, I will put forward that it is often not obvious when in written form.

    • Inconsistent says:

      06:26am | 09/12/10

      Rubbish. They failed to forecast this whole change pattern to rainy seasons earlier this year, and you want o give them credibility? Theyre watching it unfold, not forecasting weather.
      Weather science is the most inexact science known to man.
      If youre a failure as a scientist, the fact is the uncertain weather science is perfect for the spread of misinformation and you can always blame it on the weather.
      Look at the Al Gore farce and now the lack of credibility that Global Warming, now convieniently renamed Climate change.
      Poiticians are using these as excuses for excessive taxes on uneeded projects and world rule.
      New World order financing? I dont know but looks like the United Nations are loving it, as they appear to have set it up in the first place.

      Reply

    • iansand says:

      08:00am | 09/12/10

      They predicted a La Nina event, which causes above average precipitation.

    • Macca says:

      08:19am | 09/12/10

      @Inconsistent, Actually, many forecasters were aware of the La Nina effects long before the current rain. I remember hearing reports about a Wet summer this year as far back as June.

    • K says:

      02:08pm | 09/12/10

      Perhaps you should start checking out the BOM’s website on a daily basis, if you did you would have known months ago about the rainy weather heading our way. If you don’t know the BOM’s web address then you have no right to complain about how accurate or inaccurate they are and whether or not they’ve predicted something, as this article is pointing out.

      In relation to the rest of your comment…paranoid rubbish.

    • Inconsistent says:

      06:19pm | 09/12/10

      “K” Youre either ill informed or you failed to see the slanted IPCC reports on world climate. The weather report in the Weekly times for the winter coming in circa March was for a dry winter. Hells bells what do they call a wet winter?
      Wangaratta Flooded Queensland flooded. Lake Eyre Flooded. My research goes back to Idigo Jones and the Bruckner weather cycle.  All irrelavant rubbish due to weather scientists grand standing. But not completely wrong. This weather cycle shows it 35 year pattern once again. Can you tell me why scientists are so insistent on spending out money in the name of carbon tax? CO2 isnt the real problem. So whats their agenda. Perhaps you could enlighten me? Scientis funding is a bit low? One thing I do know. theyre not able to turn the climate around. It depends on the Suns output. Explain the earth shrinking atmospere?  Lower Sun output. Ice age coming. I hope wikipedia report on this one. Might prove embarrasing. Paranoea is a bit like the Chicken Little syndrome. Except the ones siding with Climate Change are paranoid.

    • Whos paranoid?. says:

      07:49pm | 09/12/10

      Where are the weather bureaus previous forecasts?
      You’d thing a Governemnt organsiation would keep them in pride of place wouldnt you?

    • Macca says:

      06:48am | 09/12/10

      So those calls for rain during the Adelaide test..?

      Reply

    • iansand says:

      07:58am | 09/12/10

      It bucketed after lunch.

    • Ben Haslem says:

      08:54am | 09/12/10

      This confirms Ant’s point. There was no forecast for ‘rain’ in Adelaide. Rain is a specific term meaning precipitation over a wide area for a significant period of time. The forecast for the last day was showers developing with the chance of storms. Showers are short lived and cover small areas. It was spot on. The media constantly says rain when the forecast is a shower or two. Or as Jane on Nine likes to say: bit of a sprinkle. What?! Ant, thanks for this. I’ve thought about writing similar many times.

    • Macca says:

      10:08am | 09/12/10

      Fair enough, well done Punchers

    • Old Clive says:

      06:56am | 09/12/10

      Perhaps if there wasn’t so much trash on the tele or the news, peole might come to the realisation that there is reality in the world after all and start believeing some of the warnings that are issued.

      Reply

    • BobbyDan says:

      07:29am | 09/12/10

      When ships at sea, manned lighthouses and aircraft in the air sent 1 or 2 hourly weather condition reports the BoM had an accurate picture of what was happening in nearly all the areas for 100’s of kilometers.

      Now the BoM uses radar and unmanned weather stations to base thier forecasts on. None of these has the wit or wisdom of a human and can tell the BoM exactly what is happening. Nor can the forecaster ring, FAX or email an unmanned station and ask “what is happening now”.

      Oh for the days of The Lighthouse Keeper being busy keeping watch. It is calm, with low cloud and light showers, temp is 12 C humidity 92% at 04:45 am WST at 6225,

      Reply

    • BobbyDan says:

      07:55am | 09/12/10

      Amended forecast for 6225 at 05:10am WST:
      Wind, calm. cloud clearing, showers contracting to the east/south east, temp is 11 C humidity 92%. and the sun is breaking over the horizon.

    • Leigh Evans says:

      07:30am | 09/12/10

      You are kidding are’nt you? That was one of the neatest little handpasses (spin)I’ve read. Blaming everybody except yourself’s. When the weather people tell me there is a 50/50 chance of below average rainfall in my area this spring and I look at what we are copping now. I wonder are you worth the money the public forks out for the “service” or lack of you provide?
      Global warming? Ha.

      Reply

    • Steely Dan says:

      09:30am | 09/12/10

      @ Leigh

      “That was one of the neatest little handpasses (spin)I’ve read. Blaming everybody except yourself’s”
      Ant Sharwood’s a journo.  He doesn’t work for the BOM.  Should he be shouldering the blame for anything?

      “When the weather people tell me there is a 50/50 chance of below average rainfall in my area this spring and I look at what we are copping now.”
      Now?  As in, summer?

      “Global warming? Ha.”
      What does that have to do with global warming?  That’s out of left field.

    • Adrian says:

      10:57am | 09/12/10

      “Yourself’s”????

    • Leigh Evans says:

      09:03am | 11/12/10

      As in summer and spring oh clever one. You could really add the last twelve months around here.
      Everything thats not nice about the weather the global warmists/climate changers claim it as proof of.
      What are they calling it today climate change or global warming?
      So I did’nt use a proof reader, get over it. ?????

    • ibast says:

      07:48am | 09/12/10

      Sorry, you’ve got it completely arse about.  The bureau deliberately use soft terminology then later claim they get it right the vast majority of the time.  By predicting a chance of this, or the possibility of that, then it doesn’t matter which way the weather falls.  They can still claim they got it right.

      Reply

    • Leigh Evans says:

      08:57am | 09/12/10

      That’s called a bit each way.

    • Tkynasto says:

      07:49am | 09/12/10

      Weather forecasters are as good as economic forecasters. The future cannot be forecast, merely speculated. Talk to a theortical physicist and she will tell you that we can’t even determine the current position of an electron, let alone the future position. And everything is made up of atoms.

      Reply

    • Paranoia says:

      08:36am | 09/12/10

      Love the Bureau.  Their website is a brilliant source of information, which, if you live an hour away, makes it possible to make the decision whether to go home before the storm hits or wait it out in town and hope… and the flood levels make it even easier, you can keep an eye on those and the radar and make the call as to what you want to do with that…

      Reply

    • Mike Stevens says:

      08:55am | 09/12/10

      the forecasts for our postcode 2421 are absolute rubbish as far as rain is concerned.  Most of the time when they say it is 70% or more probability of rain, it does not rain at all.  Over last 2 weeks it said we would get good rain more than 70% probability 6 times.  We got a very light shower once!  However, they are very good at changing their prediction about 4pm in the afternoon when it is obvious they are wrong.  They are pretty much useless.

      Reply

    • Ben Haslem says:

      10:52am | 09/12/10

      Mike, the BOM does not issue forecasts for single postcodes. The 70% would have been for a forecast area in which you live, the Hunter, which is a large area running from the coast to the mountains. E.g. a forecast of a shower or two in Sydney means parts of Sydney will have a shower or two. Not every square cm.

    • Mike says:

      01:34pm | 09/12/10

      wrong Ben.  Check your website.  It actually gives 7 day predictions for towns

    • Ads says:

      03:13pm | 03/02/11

      70% chance means there is a greater chance of rain, there is still a 30% chance of no rain as well. If they said there was 100% chance of rain and it didn’t, then you’d have something to complain about.

    • Kevin says:

      08:59am | 09/12/10

      Some time in the 1980s, I think, BoM’s Head Office in Melbourne started having its xmas parties outside at the Exhibition gardens.  Then one year, 3 or 4 days before the scheduled event, the weather forecast looked bad so they decided to shift to an indoors venue.  Of course, come the day of the xmas party, the weather was beautiful and sunny and perfect for an outdoor event.

      Reply

    • poa says:

      09:18am | 09/12/10

      Errrr. The very people who told us that it was “no good building new dams” because they were “unlikely to fill in our lifetime” due to the “climate being hotter and drier” ....should be sacked.
      The climate models don’t work in reverse..ie as data comes in the models should be updated..and tossed out if completely wrong.
      its called testing the hypothesis.
      Don’t do this..try to “spin” your way out or “correct he data” to suit and its not science.
      Its fraud.
      Or defending the new religion.
      But either way..we deserve better forecasting. Peoples livelihoods are at stake (farmers not the Green Industry!)  and the forecasts should not be the PC propaganda of the AGW Associations.
      poa. B.App.Sci

      Reply

    • Graeme says:

      10:36pm | 09/12/10

      The dams in Victoria still have a long way to go before they are full, currently just over 50 per cent.

    • Likes Joining Dots says:

      11:24am | 11/12/10

      Graeme
      I agree with your logic, the dams are only at 50% - we need twice as many dams to make up the shortfall

    • PaulM says:

      09:23am | 09/12/10

      Ben Haslem is obviously a BoM employee. They here in Darwin regularly get it wrong. For e.g. Monday night their forecast for Darwin issued at 1640 was partly cloudy and fine, yet at the same time they issued a severe thunderstorm warning for Darwin.

      Added to that, the Berrimah Weather Radar has been out of operation and/or improperly calibrated for months. They have got many complaints from people about it and simply ignore them.

      I run a weather forum, and I can tell you the epic fails of our Darwin BoM (including the improper use of terminology such as “gusty storms” instead of the official BoM term “thunderstorms with possible damaging wind gusts” etc etc etc. The list goes on. I dont blame the forecasters there at all - the blame points higher up the food chain.

      Reply

    • Straw Queen says:

      10:37am | 09/12/10

      Well said PaulM, I could not have said it better myself.  That is the cold hard truth.  I still remember the widespread rain last week where the forecast for that evening said “Fine. Partly cloudy”.  I’m not trying to bag BoM at all and I’m sure many of the staff do a great job (I have friends that work there) but sometimes the forecasts that are issued are a little to be desired when something else outside the window is obviousely contradicting was initially forecatsed.

    • Andrew Tupper says:

      01:59pm | 09/12/10

      Dear Paul,

      I’m sorry to hear of your concerns.  However:

      1) The 1640 forecast for Darwin for Monday evening read:
      “Evening shower or gusty storm, mainly inland. Light to moderate west to northwest winds.
      Precis:    Shower or gusty storm.”
      As you say, there was a severe storm warning issued.  The forecast for Nhulunbuy, which is in the eastern Top End, read ‘Partly cloudy’

      2) Berrimah radar has had a dome repaint during the Dry season that has significantly improved the calibration.  There have been a couple of generator and telstra comms issues more recently but they have been quickly fixed and our radar technicians have not received any public complaints at all as far as they’re aware.  Please feel free to E-mail me privately to explain your concerns further.

      3) I’m comfortable with our use of ‘gusty storms’.

      kind regards,
      Dr Andrew Tupper,
      Regional Director NT, Bureau of Meterorology

    • PaulM says:

      04:23pm | 09/12/10

      Thats great Andrew.

      What does “gusty” mean? I don’t see it anywhere in the BoM glossary. How are the public meant to know what “gusty” means? Does “gusty” align with any of your warning products so that people can become familiar of what they can expect when you use that terminology?

      How about “storm”? The BoM glossary does not even recognise the word “storm” while the WMO defines the word “storm” as being a wind measuring 10 or higher on the Beaufort scale, meaning a wind speed of 89 kilometers per hour (55 miles per hour).

      As for Berrimah radar the painting the dome happened weeks before the on-going failures. Maybe the paint is interfering with the signal?

      As for Berrimahs calibration, a week ago Marrara had over 100mm in 80 mins, most of that was in 30 mins (80mm). Yet Berrimah only showed light blue for most of that time. There would have been 3 volumetric scans at least over that period and according to BoM scale, should have been red? Light blue = light rain. Berrimah properly calibrated? Computer says no lol.  As for feedback, at least 10 people I know have rang and left messages about the radar.

      Problem your end???

    • PaulM says:

      04:40pm | 09/12/10

      Oh & Dr Tupper, maybe you can explain Monday’s forecast - yes my bad I was thinking about last week when it was raining across the whole of Darwin when your forecast was “partly cloudy”.

      As for Monday’s forecast, it said “shower or gusty storm mainly inland” at the same time you had issued a severe thunderstorm warning for Darwin.

      Unless I am mistaken, Darwin isn’t mainly inland?

    • Richard W says:

      05:43pm | 09/12/10

      Hi Andrew
      I for one have submitted an “electronic feedback form” from the BOM site, as there are no email address’s in the contact page, I have screen shots of both Berrimah and Airport radar from Mondays storms that could easily show two differant weather systems, the airport radar was the most accurate for what was observed, but that radar is down for 60-70% of the time for windfinding so can not be relied on.
      Oh and I did not get a response from BOM website feedback apart from a confirmation of receiving message.  If you would like to see the screen shots please feel free to email me.
      Regards
      Richard

    • No Idea says:

      05:56pm | 09/12/10

      Last Wednesday’s evening (01/12/2010) forecast was partly cloudy with light winds but yet it rained (not showers) actually rained for a good four hours. This was clearly evident for hours before on both Airport and Berrimah radars’. The forecast was never updated? Day after day the forecast is for afternoon showers and storms but, the sounding will show that it is as dry as a dead dingoes upstairs!!  BTW Did they paint the Berrimah radar with radar absorbing paint?? Surely it can’t be dodgy phone lines, but, being Darwin, it’s probably still on Dial up.
      It’s not only Darwin, Perth (Serpintine) new virga detector radar is just about as useless. Highly over calibrated, not that it rains in Perth anymore, so shouldn’t be any problem anyway<..>

    • Andrew Tupper says:

      10:10pm | 09/12/10

      Richard - Hi, yes please do send me the screen shots and I’ll follow-up.

      Andrew

    • Snaggles says:

      09:32am | 09/12/10

      Nice one Ant.
      Now explain how Bear Sternes and Lehmann Brothers got the forecasts so arsed-up? And, while you’re up’n'at it, tell me why Alan Kohler keeps his job.

      Reply

    • Eldwin says:

      09:39am | 09/12/10

      Have anyone ever wondered why it’s called weather “forecast”? If it was accurate, it wouldn’t be called forecast at all. I’ve always used it just as reference.

      That being said, and reading what some have posted here, I have come across some really way, way off forecast. Guess you can never know what mother nature’s going to give next. Just like out at sea, one minute it’d be calm, next minute it get all choppy out of the blue.

      Reply

    • Wal says:

      09:43am | 09/12/10

      Yep I agree with Paul, there seems to be some serious issues with Darwins BoM, radar needs calibrating as it does not show what is actually occurring, there is a heap of nowcasting and if they do get a forecast wrong eg: Partly cloudy, fine, light winds and its pouring down..there is NO Update, STW are getting issued after the event or not at all. I also agree that the issue is not the forecasters but management…

      Reply

    • Justin says:

      09:50am | 09/12/10

      Their most sensitive instrument is the window. They look out it & issue an amended forecast.

      As for accuracy, as pointed out above, they use much softer, more vague terms that can be interpreted as correct. It’s becoming more & more like the stars or cold readings. Mostly sunny, partly cloudy, mostly cloudy, (chance of a) shower or two, isolated showers, scattered showers, showers, periods of rain, rain.

      “I’m getting some weather. Did anyone experience some weather today? No, I think it maybe someone you know experienced some weather.” John Edward - Meteorologist

      Reply

    • Jamie says:

      10:08am | 09/12/10

      What i cant understand is that this radar is in my opinion working at about 45% of its capability. How can BoM get it right when they have malfunctioning equipment?

      Reply

    • Lee says:

      10:37am | 09/12/10

      People just don’t like listening to others, espcially those who may actually know something. the forecasting in Perth is ok. Remember Perth extends from north of Joondalup to Mandurah. Mandurah or north of the river seem to get showers if they are forecast but the centre to the south get nothing or not much! So people in this area or to the east will say they have had no rain, the forecast was a sham. Tell that to those who now have flooded roads in Mandurah! Learn to use the radar and synoptic charts to be able to forecast weather yourself.

      Reply

    • dt says:

      10:42am | 09/12/10

      please be serious.  whatever the weather forecast is i normally think the oppositte will happen.  meteorologists are just well paid carnies but instead of guessing a persons weight they guess the weather.  everyday is fine with…..  tomorrow’s forecast is fine with possible rain or tsunamis.

      Reply

    • Anthony says:

      11:03am | 18/12/10

      Meteorologists are hard-working individuals, highly specialised in a difficult, inexact science, who have to work long 12-hour night shifts, weekends, Christmas Day, you name it. They therefore deserve every cent they get. Oh, and if weather forecasting was such a sham, then why do think the governments around the world continue to invest in weather bureaus? It’s because they have the intelligence to see that they ultimately save society a lot of money, not to mention people’s lives! Each time you take a plane trip, it’s the weather bureau’s forecasts, used by pilots and ATC, that ensure you will land safely. What an ungrateful, clueless bunch much of the public is.

    • Duff says:

      10:45am | 09/12/10

      Don’t know if it is an urban myth or not, but I seem to recall a story about a math teacher who ran an experiment where he simply predicted the next day’s weather based on what happened the day before.  He then compared the accuracy of his no-thought predictions to the weather bureau’s over the course of one year and apparently he beat them hands down.

      Reply

    • S01 says:

      10:46am | 10/12/10

      Hmm I’m not sure on the story, But I know I’ve been told if you predict the same weather for today as you had yesterday your right more often than your wrong. From my crude/basic understanding of meterology this is due to the fact weather systems normally hang out for 3+ days

    • Anthony says:

      11:04am | 18/12/10

      If you have no hard source to back up this story, then it’s most likely an urban myth.

    • Straw Queen says:

      10:47am | 09/12/10

      I’ll also give credit to the BoM where it is due, rather than focus on the bad. In my opinion, they have really improved on the severe thunderstorm warnings in Darwin, even providing STW graphics which until recently, was only exclusive to every other state except the NT.  Their long range forecasts on Nino 4 and the SOI are excellent, they predicted a huge La nina event this year and that is exactly what is unfolding now.  Tropical Cyclone forecasting has also moved foward in leaps and bounds.

      Reply

    • Paul says:

      10:52am | 09/12/10

      who cares

      Reply

    • Guin says:

      12:15pm | 09/12/10

      Ahh Anthony Sharwood the cabbie, just thought that I would pull you up on a story you posted a week or so ago about Nathan Hauritz. You had a really good crack at him but I have noticed since you wrote that article he took 5 wickets last first class game and just scored 146 in this one. Now I understand a bald cab driver would be a great welth of knowledge when it comes to cricket and spin bowling in general so I am just a bit confused as to why you’ve moved onto the weather now?

      Reply

    • NicoleG says:

      01:15pm | 09/12/10

      And I bet you’re one of those vile little cretins, that can’t handle his piss and spews up half digested Hot Dogs or Souvlaki in the back seat of the cab. Cobbie’s deserve a medal because they have to deal with the likes of you !

    • Ant Sharwood says:

      12:32pm | 09/12/10

      Gee guin, you’re right. The fact that i once drove vehicles that the public rode around in, and the fact that i also write the odd story about cricket, means i am totally devoid of any further brain space to be even faintly knowledgeable about anythnig. i do apologise.

      thanks for the reminder about the state of my hair, or lack of it, by the way. i had forgotten. But now i feel terribly sad.

      You’re pretty good with the pen guin. But you strike me as more of a goose (note subtle pun produced by brain sadly lacking in hair coverage)

      Reply

    • little banana says:

      01:17pm | 09/12/10

      What a crook of shit.
      Not one weather forecast on any tv channel can tell me the correct weekend weather. They must get in to work mondays and say “sorry, stuffed it again”. Or pop the champers if they snag it.
      Its looking very gloomy for them with not much chance of it clearing in the near future. I suggest the sheltered corners or a padded room.

      Reply

    • Ant Sharwood says:

      01:44pm | 09/12/10

      Did you read the story little banana? I’d refer you to the bit where i talk about how the TV distorts the raw data. If you’re relying on the telly, there’s no way you’ll get accuracy.

    • Justin says:

      02:08pm | 09/12/10

      Ant, I get my “forecasts” direct from the BoM website, & I don’t think the issue is with distortions in the TV forecasts.

      When we were in drought in Sydney, they were very accurate, but obviously predicting that tomorrow will be like today is easier than when the weather is much more changeable.

      Now they resort to weasel words that are deliberately vague so they can be left open to interpretation.

      But yeah, clearly it’s all Jaynie Seal’s fault.

    • the little banana says:

      02:35pm | 09/12/10

      Ant may I put this little twist on the issue please.
      If tommorow morning you were having your driveway concreted at a cost of 12 grand. The contractor has lost out to many times this year so puts it on you to make the call. The batching plant needs to know by 6am are we pouring or not. What do you do?
      A scenario occuring daily.

    • Guin says:

      01:18pm | 09/12/10

      Don’t apologise to me Anthony, apologise to Nathan Hauritz. He’s the bloke that you publicly slagged off from behind your desk and you’ve been made to eat humble pie. I have no drama in you having an opinion but if it is at the expense of someones livelyhood and they get out there and prove you wrong, the least you could do is say well done to him.
      Sorry about the hair jokes mate, that was a bit below the belt. Although we are talking cricket and I’m sure Shane Warne and Doug Bollinger could be of some inspiration to you.

      Reply

    • Justin says:

      02:39pm | 09/12/10

      To be fair to Ant, that says more about the state of the Sheffield Shield than it does about the ability of Hauritz.

    • Chris says:

      02:10pm | 09/12/10

      Try this little thought experiment for a month.  I propose the weather tomorrow will be just like the weather today.  I indeed did this experiment for 2 months and the proposition held true approx 60% of the time.  The weatherman however was often wildly inaccurate and the best they could muster was approx 40%, ergo, weather forecasting is a waste of productive tax dollars.

      Reply

    • Tom says:

      03:31pm | 09/12/10

      Your right Chris, persistence forecasting runs at around 60% accuracy for the weather type (ie fine or showers/rain) for southern Australia and a fair bit higher through the tropics, but is highly inaccurate for temperature forecasting in southern Australia.

      As far as I’m aware BoM forecasts run at around mid 90% accuracy for temperature and about the 90% mark for weather type. Everyone thinks that the accuracy rates are much lower because the devil is in the detail of the forecasts….

      A city forecast with a shower or two does not mean that each location in the city will get a shower or two, but that over the whole area of the city there will be a shower or two. Therefore the 60-odd% of people that didn’t get that shower think the forecast is wrong, when in fact it is a correct forecast.

      Also with the use of ‘vague descriptors’ such as chance, mainly, possible…. these are more indications of the likelihood of something happening than a cover all bases exercise. ie a shower or two means that a shower is more likely than if the forecast was chance of a shower.

    • iansand says:

      04:06pm | 09/12/10

      The other problem is that people tend to think that “morning showers” means showers when they are awake - say 6-30 to noon.  They forget that the morning starts at midnight.  I go for a walk most mornings at about 5-30.  The ground is sometimes wet, but there is not a drop for the rest of the day.

    • Duff says:

      04:47pm | 09/12/10

      So you’re the guy!  Would be interesting to test that hypothesis on a 7 day forecast basis.  A bit more complicated to run, but if the weatherman loses that race then I think you’re on to something.

    • Ben C says:

      02:25pm | 09/12/10

      I remember an Insanity Streak cartoon in the Telegraph a while back, a TV news bulletin, and the anchor is saying, “And now to the weatherman who never gets it wrong, it’s (insert name here) with yesterday’s weather.”

      Reply

    • Weq says:

      03:14pm | 09/12/10

      whats the point of this article? The reason why the weatherman in australia get it wrong is because there are not enough data points to collect information. its not rocket science, its just lack of data. its not surprising to me at all, check the weather and the start of the week (for the weekend) and then check it again at the end. 99% of the time the forcast has changed. and you know what, that means they got it WRONG. if you cant predict weather 4 days in advance, you arnt PREDICTING anything, you are observing weather patterns. nothing more.

      the same lack of data is the reason why global warming is a myth.

      Reply

    • Huddo says:

      03:25pm | 09/12/10

      Wasn’t Katrina a Category 3 when it struck New Orleans?

      Reply

    • michellemac says:

      04:40pm | 09/12/10

      I can’t be bothered googling it but that Katrina forecast reads like an urban myth. “Only the ‘Heartiest’ trees will remain standing”???

      Reply

    • Matt says:

      05:26pm | 09/12/10

      There have been a few times during the past couple of years when the Darwin BOM haven’t issued a STW when a Severe Thunderstorm has actually hit e.g. on Saint Patrick’s day 2009 a large microburst produced by a multi-cell thunderstorm hit Darwin, snapping a lot of tree branches but yet no STW was issued even when you could clearly see it coming on the radar and the Darwin Airport Weather Station recorded a wind gust of 100km/h.

      Reply

    • James says:

      08:43pm | 09/12/10

      The Darwin BoM really needs to fix their radar, it has been out of order for months, severe storms dropping a lot of rain look like nothing on the Berrimah radar –I’m not sure how they’re getting away with it. Also like Wal and Matt said there is too much “nowcasting” with Darwin BoM and they always seem to issue a STW when the severe storm actually hits or past.

      They need to send the big bosses up to Darwin to do a review or something!

      Reply

    • Ron Theory says:

      08:47pm | 09/12/10

      BoM do a great job with forecasts in temperate latitudes.  20 years ago, a four day forecast wasn’t worth the paper it was written on and now, in temperate latitudes you can pretty much rely on their 7 day forecasts.  Anyone who disagrees with the notion that they have vastly improved over the past 20 years, in relation to weather (as distinct from climate) forecasts has rocks in their head

      Reply

    • Anthony says:

      11:10am | 18/12/10

      I completely agree with this. More computing power = more accurate models = better forecasts. To argue against this is to argue against the progress that science has made technologically.

    • NTMick says:

      09:12pm | 09/12/10

      I too have concerns with the accuracy off the Berrimah Radar (as opposed to the Darwin Airport Radar).
      I too have also made a request for an explanation…ie- which radar do i believe? I have animals that i need to re-house in certain types of weather…
      Light rain = no probs
      Heavy rain = re-housing
      I received recognition of my inquiry & that it had been forwarded to the relevant department. I would also be contacted for further explanation and/or correspondence. That has not yet happened.
      I am very disappointed & have read that Darwin BOM don’t think there is an issue with the Radar…......FINE - So which one shall i use as accurate?? If it is Airport, can we keep it online please….....................Which one do we use when there is a TC or TD in the area???:(

      Reply

    • NTMick says:

      09:17pm | 09/12/10

      Paul, may i add? I, (arguably) as a normal every day type of person understand what “GUSTY” means!
      Not that difficult!
      If the radar & sat pics are accurate, who really gives a hoot what the morning/afternoon forecast is? I’d expect any weather enthusiast would know what to expect from day to day…...................Those “soundings” are public & gospel….. LOL wink

      Reply

    • bananabender says:

      09:24pm | 09/12/10

      What a load of rubbish. Weather reports are typically no better than 80% accurate for the next 24 hours. Statistically they are no better than guesses for events five days ahead. No other scientific field has such an abysmal “success” rate.

      Reply

    • Warren says:

      09:55pm | 09/12/10

      Weather forecasters only exist to make economists look good.

      No one knows the future. No one. It’s folly to ask people to make accurate predictions about such things. Estimate probabilities, maybe.

      Reply

    • Frustrated Gardener says:

      07:28am | 10/12/10

      I would simply like to know whether it is going to rain over say the next 24 hours at a particular location.  Does that seem like such a big ask? This allows decision-making around such things as whether to carry an umbrella, whether to hang wasing out to dry and whether to spray garden foliage. The BOM in Australia is singularly useless at forecasting this. They have moved from being just wrong to more recently suggesting such a broad set of possibilities that almost any weather result will qualify.

      In 1999 I worked in the UK for a year. Forecasting of fine versus wet days was spot on with almost no errors over the whole year. Waiting for the quips now, about it being easier to predict there because it rains all the time! Some years ago a Sydney university did some rsearch that showed that if you just looked out the window and predicted that tomorrow’s weather would be the same as today’s, you would be right more times than the Australian weather forecasters.

      Reply

    • No clue says:

      08:14am | 10/12/10

      Anthony you are sooo right with all this. People are very uneducated on the Bureau’s terms. When they say Chance of a Shower, it means exactly that, a chance (10-20%). A shower or two means exactly that, a shower or maybe even two. A few showers means three or more. Showers means frequent throughout the day but stopping and starting a lot. Periods of rain means more continuous but still the odd break now and then and Rain means constant almost all day without break. But the media treats the forecast like a joke with an icon that has water coming out of clouds. So people think rain and prepare for a downpour when in fact it could just mean a possible shower (usually no moisture at all). Also the media need to do away with the dipsy blonde weather chicks who clearly has no idea but are simply there to look good. I’m sorry but if I want to see big b**bs I’ll look at porn, I watch the weather for exactly that, the weather, someone informative and not someone who travels around the country each day to showcase the wonders of Australia, just show me the weather for god’s sake.

      Reply

    • Charles Sainte Claire says:

      09:21am | 10/12/10

      When I was doing a lot of rain damage repairs to highways in the San Bernardino Mountains in the 70’s and 80’s weather knowledge, especially rain and snow storms was vital.  I had a US weather service radio and also would listen to the fruit frost warnings coming from University of California, Riverside.  These were the most accurate forecasts.  TV weather?  Useless.

    • ibast says:

      09:52am | 10/12/10

      No clue, I wont hear bad things said about boobs.  They are always appropriate and should never be discouraged.

    • Grandfather Darwin says:

      12:09pm | 10/12/10

      In the 30s. 40s, 50s on my uncles farm in Victoria he KNEW what the coming weather would be by observing the signs eg clouds in one area - rain; wind from that direction - storm coming; etc etc. My Dad was the same in town we’d say ‘rain coming!’ he’d stand on verandah watch heavy black clouds and say ‘Nah, it’s going round the hills, we’ll get nothing!’    As for Darwin, have lived here nearly 60 years - why do you have to rely on TV weatherman or BOM all the time? I know some families at the first thunder rumble, they race to the computer ‘Look at BOM, see what’s happening!’  Well of course up here with thunder there’s rain about, whether you get it not!  I like BOM and use it a lot but also rely on my own observations - why can’t people do the same now??

      Reply

    • Justin says:

      11:22am | 18/12/10

      Great article, but going by many of the comments above, it is clear that much of the public are in need of a lot more education about meteorology and what forecasters actually do. It’s sad that there are still people who honestly believe that weather forecasts are mostly wrong. It has been my observation that the weather forecasts are incredibly accurate, both in terms of temperature and weather type. I rely upon the weather forecast every day and it is very rare that what is forecast is wrong.

      Reply

    • Eva says:

      02:38pm | 09/06/11

      Totally agree with you Anthony - just the other day my kids were telling me it was 8 degrees and I was saying what’s the wind chill factor?  How hard can it be for the Aussie weather services? It has been standard practice in other parts of the world for years to let the populace know what the wind chill factor is.

      Reply

    • Drernlatoyia says:

      11:44am | 09/02/12

      I’m sure the best for you <a >coach outlet</a>  for less

      Reply
 
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