If today’s Newspoll is an accurate reflection of voter intentions across the board, Julia Gillard won’t just win the election, she’ll deliver Labor candidates into almost 100 of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives.

The Newspoll bump for the ALP, putting it at 55 per cent on the 2PP, compared to 45 for the Coalition, has been attributed to a boost in the Green primary vote, from 10 per cent to 12 per cent. Both those points have been automatically awarded to Labor on the preference assumptions.
This looked a little presumptuous until Bob Brown confirmed this morning the Greens had done a deal to send Labor preferences in 50 key Lower House seats, in exchange for some love the other way in the Senate.
Those in the Coalition trying to resist the urge to jump off a bridge best focus on yesterday’s Galaxy poll, which had the two major parties neck-and-neck. (What? You mean the polls are wildly divergent?)
The SMH’s Peter Hartcher wrote an excellent, but very depressing, analysis of the campaign this morning, that might make voters want to hide under a rock weighed down by Masterchef judge Matt Preston over the next four and a half weeks. Hartcher said:
Both Gillard and Abbott have constructed their campaigns by a focus group audit of the Rudd government, stripping away anything that might be unpopular, difficult or complex. It’s the politics of the lowest common denominator.
Obviously the focus groups didn’t prepare Abbott for how obsessed everyone is with his “Workchoices is not just dead but cremated” promise, that appears to have a three year time limit.
He even resorted to a Mark Latham-style sign on the dotted line pledge this morning, during a rather tortuous interview with 3AW’s Neil Mitchell.
The same goes for that little thorn in Gillard’s side, the fact people are a bit antsy about her knifing of Kevin Rudd. Expect every single press conference either of them do to be heavily dominated by these two themes in coming weeks.
The thing is, as Penbo found during his tour of Lindsay at the weekend, there’s a lot more than this on voters minds.
Both sides have said this won’t be a campaign of daily spending announcements, as, ahem, there’s not a lot of dosh left after the stimulus package.
I hope their focus groups can come up with something better than just “I’m not the other guy/girl”.
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