A great editor once told me to “back the story” when punting on the Melbourne Cup. Wishful thinking, no doubt, but he honestly believed that the horse with the best story often won.

English Cup hopeful Manighar being ridden by Damien Oliver. Photo: Darren McNamara

Of course, like all punting theories, this one is complete rubbish. If my mate the editor was right, topical tip Alcopop would have won in a canter last year, what with Kevin Rudd’s obsession with taxing said bevvies.

Thong Classic (13th in 2002) and Maythehorsebewithu (5th in 2001) would also both have won, creating heaven for headline-writers.

No, the old editor’s theory is definitely a dud. But in lieu of anything better, I’m going to run with it. But which horse? What will be the great story of the 150th Melbourne Cup? Here are four possibilities…


The headline: English take Cup, now for the Urn

The horse: Manighar (no. 13)

The story lead: English stayer Manighar has landed a major psychological blow for English sport ahead of this summer’s Ashes Series, becoming the first England-trained horse to win the Melbourne Cup. Trained by Luca Cumani, who finished second in both 2007 and 2008 with Purple Moon and Bauer, five year old gelding Manighar became just the seventh grey horse to win the great race, giving Damien Oliver his third Melbourne Cup…

Possible page two piece:

We find out exactly what the criminal investigation involving Oliver in September was all about. How did that story fall off the map, anyway?


The headline: So You Thought you could beat Bart

The horse: So You Think (no. 3)

The story lead: A record nine international horses lined up, but Bart Cummings showed the Melbourne Cup is still all about local knowledge, as the 82 year old marvel notched his 13th Cup with So You Think. Listed in the race book as a four year old, the horse many believe is the best since Phar Lap was foaled on November 10, 2006, meaning he won’t actually turn four till next Wednesday. It should be one hell of a bash…

Possible page two piece: The young wonderhorse opens up on his trainer’s brave battle for health, and his preference for Uncle Toby’s oats above all other brands.

So You Think winning the Longines Mackinnon Stakes on Saturday. Photo: Nicole Garmston


The headline: Age no barrier as Lloyd Zips up cup number four

The horse: Zipping (no. 4)

The story lead: Zipping, the oldest runner in the 150th Melbourne Cup, has given his young rivals a lesson, handing prominent owner Lloyd Williams a fourth Melbourne Cup. The nine year old marvel started with saddlecloth four on his back, as though reminding his rivals that he’d twice run fourth in this race, but defied both a world class field of stayers and those who said 3200m was beyond him…

Possible page two piece: Lloyd Williams tells how the $3 million prize money will help him repay his gambling losses on the blackjack tables at Crown Casino

Zipping wins the Turnbull Stakes. Photo: Nicole Garmston


The headline: Lucky Day comes early for “next year’s champ”

The horse: Maluckyday (no.24)

The story lead: A horse who was going to be saved for next year’s Melbourne Cup has won this year’s version at just his ninth competitive race start. Bart Cummings’ So You Think was the race favourite, but John Hawkes’ Maluckyday trumped the master, after storming into the field with his win in the Lexus Stakes on Saturday.

Possible page two piece: Two-time Cup-winning jockey Jim Cassidy tells how he spent all of Sunday on the phone trying to retain the ride on Maluckyday. Cassidy rode Maluckyday in the Lexus, but was forced to but honour his Melbourne Cup commitment to Gai Waterhouse’s Once Were Wild.

So there you have it. I’m going to back those four horses, plus Gai Waterhouse’s Caulfield Cup winner Descarado, on the basis they’ll all throw up great stories. Hope that helps in the quest for a winner.

Your thoughts?

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21 comments

Show oldest | newest first

    • deb says:

      05:58am | 01/11/10

      i would love to see number eight win this year for my husband,ill in hospital.ex yank,American would be fitting i think.he needs a winner on his side
      for years we bet on the cup but this year ,well the nation stops for a race and i am hoping his heart keeps on for the next cup.

    • smithe says:

      12:14pm | 01/11/10

      Good luck but Hes a French horse actually.

    • Jimmy Pyke says:

      06:37am | 01/11/10

      So you think Bart winning his umpteenth Melbourne cup is page 1 newsworthy,well how about a new precedence, Bart,s son Anthony wins with 100 to 1 shot Zavite, I mean ..well… dad taught him everything he knows, what the feed formula is, how many kilometres to run in the perfect lead up races,who is the best jockey from N.Z.  etc..etc.. Put your house on it and you,ll own a hundred houses by Wednesday.don,t say I didn,t tell ya.

    • Justin says:

      08:09am | 01/11/10

      Bart may have taught Anthony everything Anthony knows, but he he hasn’t taught him everything Bart knows.

    • Nicole says:

      09:44am | 01/11/10

      Zavite? Oh dear, looks like you’re gunna be homeless come Wednesday.

    • Justin says:

      08:12am | 01/11/10

      The number of foreign runners with proven performance over 3000 metres plus makes it a distinct possibility that no locals will run a place. A foreign invasion?

      If it happens, expect to see Scott Morrison doing the rounds on Wednesday ramping up the rhetoric.

    • Amber says:

      08:18am | 01/11/10

      I know where I’ll be putting my money - instead of placing a bet on the Cup, I’m going to give it to a horse charity that rescues ex-racehorses from the slaughterhouse. It may not give me a financial return but I’ll feel much better about it!

    • martin says:

      08:40am | 01/11/10

      So You Think easily. I’m not even going to put a win/place on the cup. Waste of time. I’ll have a crack at a couple of first fours and save my main betting for the other races.

    • BobbyDan says:

      09:06am | 01/11/10

      Best plan of attack is buy a $10 Mystery Bet in the last few seconds before they jump, go to the Bar and have a beer and hope for the best.
      Talking about training and learning etc, my mate Jack has it right quote’s he: “I learnt how to do my job in one year and have repeated that year 20 times, so I must be an expert by now?”.
      HE that never makes a decision, never makes a mistake.
      Go the 1’s. barrier 1 Horse 11. or 3, 3. with X11111 Form

    • John says:

      09:27am | 01/11/10

      Fairytale in honour of Stathi Katsidis with Shoot Out grinding to victory with highly emotional scenes to follow.

    • stephen says:

      10:07am | 01/11/10

      I put quite a deal of money some years ago, on Railings, ridden by Darren Beadman. It paid $45.00.
      It’s still running.
      Someone rich once told me that when betting on the Cup, wait for the last moment, when those in the know place big bets then the odds will shoot down. So watch the odds, then wait, wait, wait…
      and if yer too late, shout yer gal a dinner instead.
      (So’s yer don’t think yer got rocks in yer head.)

    • Tim says:

      01:58pm | 01/11/10

      Is that like last year when Alcopop was backed sensationally in the last half hour before the cup?
      What was the result again?

    • stephen says:

      06:36pm | 01/11/10

      I’m not talking about the last half hour, but last 5-10 minutes.
      Anyway, as Jonny Tapp just said, this race is unpredictable.
      Yer can’t always win yer know.

      Otherwise, try for odds around 8-12 to one.
      Track will be slow, so watch the jockey’s weight.

    • TOJI says:

      10:59am | 01/11/10

      Just back the rank outsider Buccaletti at 250-1 and collect as it is best each-way all day bet for many years. And the track will be dead 3 and this English champ has won at the distance. He hated the bog track in the Caulfield Cup.

    • Punters Pal says:

      12:54pm | 01/11/10

      I see, TOJI. Not only have you come up with track rating which does not exist, you have backed the nag which would not even beat the ambulance home. it is an absolute disgrace this neddie has been allowed to start. (there is dead 4 and good 3, but definitely no dead 3).

    • Gregg says:

      01:39pm | 01/11/10

      About forty years back, one approach to narrowing selections down was take:
      . previous cup winners/place getters
      . winners and/or place getters of a few good lead up races, LKS McKinnon Stakes, Vic. Derby, Caulfield Cup etc.,
      . cross out any that are not 4, 5, or six years old
      And you have your potential winners
      I used to try getting a trifecta and twice had first and second and then some mongrel outsider would get up to spoil the spoils.
      With more foreign horses, the picking is now changed somewhat.

      Always called the race for mug punters once a year.

    • Tim says:

      01:59pm | 01/11/10

      NZ Revenge,
      Harris Tweed wins and takes another of our cups across the ditch.

    • Tony of Poorakistan says:

      02:03pm | 01/11/10

      When Bart Cummings has two horses entered in a big race, always put a bet on the less favoured (and you could do worse than putting a quinella on as well). I refer your readers to Think Big vs Leilani and Galilee vs Light Fingers, among others.

    • Nicole says:

      05:44pm | 01/11/10

      I wish we had a ‘like’ button because I like your theory Tony.

      Mind you, I’ve also go a little thingy about Gay’s mount. Watch the betting.

    • Mark says:

      06:17pm | 01/11/10

      It is unaustralian not to back in the mlb cup so a couple of triffectas will do me. It is one of the few races that they are all trying to win. Look for a winner in syd, kembla, canberra plenty of other meetings to get a winner

    • Ant Sharwood says:

      02:37pm | 02/11/10

      AAAAAARGH!!!! I am so stupid. What a fitting thing for the 150th Cup. Yank bred horse that races in France, French jockey based in Hong Kong and Aussie owners. Of course!!! The international race, the international outcome. D’OH and double D’OH. Oh well, next year.

 

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