A “CT’” scan of the Gillard Government shows up the problems clearly enough.
Two of them actually: the Carbon Tax and Craig Thomson.
Two seemingly harmless initials that in this case spell disaster. But what to do about it?
During the week, the doughty Minister for Climate Change Greg Combet had a crack, mounting a strong defence of the unpopular carbon tax.
After decrying the debate as routinely “puerile and self-serving’‘, he said Tony Abbott’s modus operandi had been to “dumb down’’ politics and propagate myths. Mr Combet went through the main ones.
On the predicted death of the coal industry he said Treasury modelling had in fact found the Australian coal sector “more than doubling its output by 2050’’ under carbon price.
On small business, he said the impact of a carbon price amounted to an increase of just 0.66 per cent in costs adding 7 cents on a $10 packet of mince meat or 40 cents more to a $60 pair of jeans.
And all of this can be passed on to consumers because that’s what they’re compensated for and in any event, dry cleaners, printers, cafes and butchers are not “trade-exposed’’ to international competition.
And on claims that buying carbon offsets from abroad meant the proposed scheme was already an environmental failure, he said “there is only one atmosphere’’ accusing Mr Abbott of whipping up economic xenophobia and engaging in “typical dog whistle politics’‘.
He concluded with a direct attack on Abbott’s “direct action’’ pointing out it had no support from reputable economists and would cost $48 billion just to 2020 while not changing the basis of economic decisions - the whole point of a market mechanism.
It was an impressive speech transparently designed to turn the argument using fact. Hooray to that, but really, who’s listening?
Six weeks after revealing its generous compensation package lubricated by feel-good television ads, and aided by a fortnight in which Tony Abbott was off-line and out of the country, the Government’s primary support remains subterranean. Newspoll has it flat-lining on 27 per cent.
It is hard to escape the conclusion that the fight has already been lost - that voters simply don’t want a bar of any new tax.
Should we be surprised? As one Liberal said at the end of a bruising week in the capital, “this is obvious to everyone but the Government’‘.
“We’re seeing ordinary workers in manufacturing losing their jobs - more than a thousand in steel this week alone - and there’s a hell of a lot of anxiety about jobs and the economy and what’s the Government talking about? A new tax!’‘
“It just beggars belief - they’re talking a completely different language from the punters.’’ And it is not just the message they hate but the messenger too.
John Howard recently noted that once people decided a government is incompetent, it is pretty well all over.
The harsh reality dawning on Labor supporters now is that after more than a decade in the wilderness, their leaders have wasted their chance at their own decade of power.
Many have watched on lamely as their leaders have fumbled through a succession of cowardly backflips spending whatever goodwill the party did enjoy.
If there ever was a path to recovery after the calamitous events of mid-2010 and the poison chalice of minority government, it relied on virtually everything going right.
Instead, virtually everything has gone wrong.
The steep descent began with CT(1): the carbon tax broken promise. Rather than redressing the PM’s legitimacy problem this particular crazy-brave decision compounded it.
And then came Craig Thomson. If CT(1) made defeat at the 2013 poll all but inevitable, CT(2) raises the prospect of that happening much sooner.
Craig Thomson has not been charged and some Labor insiders believe, will not be charged because there is no “criminal” offence involved.
Perhaps, but there are other ways this thing could go. The most obvious one is that the besieged backbencher could simply quit having decided his political career is shot. The subsequent by-election would surely see the Government off.
But even if he doesn’t walk, another number of the Government’s working majority, Andrew Wilkie might.
Mr Wilkie holds an otherwise safe Labor metropolitan seat in Tasmania and probably needs Liberal preferences to survive.
He’s already demonstrated his discontent having this week sided with Opposition twice on attempts to suspend standing orders to force CT (2) to explain his actions to Parliament.
Liberals believe he is sending a signal that he could switch sides due to the PM’s unswerving yet unexplained rock-solid support for her beleaguered backbencher.
Other independents, particularly Rob Oakeshott, must be struggling with a similar question. How much NSW Labor sleaze is he prepared to overlook before his support also wavers? Where is his new paradigm now he might well ask? And as for his new Question Time rules aimed at making the executive more accountable, on Wednesday, the PM summarily shut down QT after just one question.
The curious thing about both CT(1) and CT(2) is the extent to which both were foreseeable and avoidable.
There’s no avoiding them now though.
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