In Rudd Government-speak “hysterical” is the new “denier”, as in the mining industry is “hysterical” over the RSPT the way people who questioned the details of the ETS were climate change “deniers”.

The Rudd team is once again relying on a simplistic argument to sell a highly complex policy, and this time they’ve gone all in.
Tony Abbott keeps saying the coming election will be won and lost on the Resources Super Profits Tax, which for political watchers’ sakes I hope is an overstatement. Certainly there’s no way Rudd can afford to dump it in the same bin as the ETS.
Regardless, it’s pretty clear the Government thought by calling the miners’ resource-boom windfalls “super” profits, the electorate would feel justified slapping them with a “super” tax and the debate would be won on a neat bit of rhetorical embellishment.
They could then spend the $12 billion in the first two years on soothing growing concerns among voters about the deficit and the size of Government debt.
To justify it the Government has relied on an ideological argument, that the miners’ profits should be redistributed and all Australians should get their “fair share”.
The thing is, from the minute they unveiled their response to Ken Henry’s tax review, lots of voters have been suss of the Government’s motives for gouging the industry many credit with helping us ride out the GFC.
When I was skulking around the highly marginal seat of Robertson on the Central Coast in the days after the RSPT was announced I got talking to a young travel agent named Emma who, unprompted, nominated the mining tax as a major concern as “it might drive the industry off shore.”
That’s not the kind of thing you generally expect young travel agents to say, and it was before the Minerals Council had a chance to get its act together to start belting Rudd and Swan.
Opponents of the tax (those the Government are calling “hysterical”) have also come up with their own neat rhetorical device, describing it as the “nationalisation” of the mining industry.
And now the Government is scrambling to pull together a coherent message, weeks after they should have launched a decent campaign, and months after they should have started working on it.
There’s no other way to explain the huge mess Wayne Swan has got himself into over the legitimacy of a US academic research paper he’s relied on to argue the mining sector isn’t paying its way.
Samantha Maiden from The Australian spoke to one of the authors yesterday afternoon, who said it’s possible the figures they relied on could have been drawn from as few as four Australian mining companies.
It beggars belief the Treasurer didn’t get his department to pin down exactly what the industry is already paying before they even released the policy, let alone trotted out this research no doubt stumbled upon during a Google search almost a month later.
Last night on the 7.30 Report Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner ended up sounding like a frustrated school teacher as he tried to cut through the chaos and actually sell the policy. If he thinks no-one’s listening, he’s only got his leader and his colleagues to blame.
Rudd’s dug himself a super pit-sized hole. The with-us-or-against-us argument didn’t work on the ETS and is unlikely to work this time either. He needs a new shovel.
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