By the time most of you read this article, Julia Gillard will have pulled off an extraordinary political coup - her second in one week - and one which again puts Labor in the box seat to win a second term. At 8.30am the new Prime Minister is expected to stand up and announce that a deal has been struck on the mining tax, killing stone dead the one issue which more than any other was threatening to derail Labor’s campaign for re-election.

If Kevin Rudd was the major personality flaw in Labor’s re-election equation, the Resources Super Profits Tax was its biggest policy failing. There were three key problems with the tax - many voters could not understand why Canberra was going after the one industry sector which had helped us weather the global financial crisis, Kevin Rudd was proving inept and ineffective at negotiating with the miners over its operation, and the proposed use of $38 million in public money to fund an advertising campaign extolling its virtues had offended the taxpayers deeply.
In just one week Julia Gillard has killed each of these three problems - she appears to have struck a deal which the miners are prepared to wear, she’s done so by sitting and down and negotiating in a manner which Kevin Rudd could only dream of, and she’s already killed off the prospect of a damaging and expensive advertising war on the eve of the election campaign. It’s a massive win for her so early in her prime ministership and a very serious blow to Tony Abbott who has been campaigning on little else for the past few months.
Tony Abbott has been a dogged prosecutor of the flaws of the RSPT. He may now find himself in a position where his chief criticism of the government is now a total non-event. If the miners go quietly and accept the revised terms of the tax, Mr Abbott has effectively spent two months campaigning against something which will no longer feature as an issue in the election campaign.
Julia Gillard would not have scheduled a press conference for 8.30am this morning to tell Australia that the talks have failed, or that the talks are continuing. She will tell the people of Australia that the talks have been a success and that a deal has been done. If the miners buy it, it’s a massive win for her, it makes an early election even more likely, and it also increases the likelihood of a Labor win.
Tony Abbott can argue on national interest grounds that he’s pleased the tax has been softened. He can rightly take credit for helping to force the government to modify its original plan. But politically, it’s his worst case scenario. The Coalition would have much preferred a debilitating national brawl between the Government and the miners than the consensus we are about to see today. It’s Julia’s second coup in a week and it will embolden her and the Government she now leads.
The mining tax is obviously dominating the news sites this morning but there’s one other funny little story we liked, by Michelle Grattan in The Age, where Kevin Rudd’s nephew, radical leftie artist Van Thanh Rudd, has done an interview about his uncle’s demise. ‘‘On a personal level I understand he’d be hurting a bit,” says Van Thanh, who also reveals that he’s running against new Prime Minister Julia Gillard in Lalor for the Revolutionary Socialist Party.
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