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Campaign countdown: Julia can go early, easily

David Penberthy

by David Penberthy

29 Jun 05:44am

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Filed under: Campaign Countdown, Election 2010, Julia Gillard

36 comments

Catching up on the coverage of these extraordinary few days of Australian history, the strongest indication that Prime Minister Julia Gillard will call an early election comes from the language she has cleverly used to concede that she does not have a popular mandate.

Election night 2007, and the 2010 re-run may be only weeks away. Photo: Kym Smith

With her brief remarks at her first press conference as PM - which bizarrely enough was played live on TV in South Africa, via Sky News UK, at about 4am in the morning last Thursday - Gillard was at pains to acknowledge that it was the party and not the people who had installed her in the top job.

By emphasising this fact, Gillard has put herself in a position where calling an August election would not look like an opportunistic bid to capitalise on her honeymoon and the Opposition’s rethink of its tactics, but a sincere and almost urgent gesture aimed at giving the public a chance to legitimise or reject her prime ministership.

Plenty has been written on what happened last week so there’s not much to add, save for the fact that the Kevin Rudd press conference, which was also shown live in South Africa, was one of the most horrible things I’ve ever seen. I’m still amazed that he managed to get through it.

With the modest reshuffle now out of the way, and Kevin Rudd banished to the backbench for the remainder of this term, the timing of the election looks like it will be the subject of much speculation for the rest of this week. Phil Coorey writes in the SMH today that August is looking more and more likely.

And while Julia Gillard has pulled her mining ads and asked the mining lobby to do the same, the industry is now threatening to launch a new round of attack ads unless the Government comes to a compromise within two weeks. Given her defiant response to the teachers’ unions with their industrial threats over the MySchool website, the new PM is unlikely to respond well to this kind of comparable blackmail.

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36 comments

Show oldest | newest first

    • Richard says:

      06:11am | 29/06/10

      Well she ought to call the election. Hanging on for grim tenure until the very end of the term didn’t really work out for Gordon Brown after all.

      Reply

    • Heléna says:

      07:45am | 29/06/10

      the longer she waits the less likely they will win re-election, although she does need to actually confirm some policy

      Reply

    • Russell says:

      07:48am | 29/06/10

      The Teachers Union was a pushover compared to the multinational mining companies. They’ve shown us already who runs this country. “We lost our way” (sob). There will be a backdown over the tax. And who are the ones applauding now that “we are back on track”? Nationalists? Gillards “left” faction? The Greens? Incredibly, they all are!

      Reply

    • Phil says:

      08:08am | 29/06/10

      Whilst I am inclined to agree with you David, there is also the issue that she backed most of the stuff ups. She cannot go on TV in a dabate and state that she did not want to stall the ETS. The BER rip offs were her baby. The computers in schools that have not been what was advised are all her work.

      Her deputy was also in every decision up to his armpits, possibly more than Gillard when the Kitchen Cabinet was just a night time port.

      Interesting times indeed.

      Reply

    • Jason says:

      04:44pm | 29/06/10

      Correct Phil - Laurie Oakes tore her apart on Sunday and I was even cringing for her. 
      The removal of ads has not and will not solve the mining tax issue either.  The miners (unlike 54% of Australians) are not dills. 
      The wicked witch of the west had better come up with something now.

    • Luke4 says:

      08:31am | 29/06/10

      It was interesting listening to Bill Shorten on Q & A last night listing all the mistakes made by the Labor Government. He mentioned Insulation, BER, Mining Tax and others as if no one else in the Government had anything to do with it and now the problems have all gone away and it was all Kevins fault. Don’t blame us?

      Reply

    • Joan says:

      03:07pm | 29/06/10

      Bill Shorten was a hoot as he reeled off all Labor failures, one after the other, a whole list. Would be great footage for Liberal ads, - Shorten the guy who initiated Rudd downfall reads off list of failures, followed by Gillard admitting to her part in failures, followed by Rudd teardrops. Amazing with the process of editing Liberals can tell true story in a couple of minutes - fresh and still raw - bring on the election in August - the silly voters who thought they voted for Rudd can be reminded and then see how they vote.

    • Carl Palmer says:

      04:21pm | 29/06/10

      I thought Bill Shorten’s “explanation or justification” on QandA last night was an affront to the public. The only change was Rudd been replaced by Gillard. These are the same people who were suppose to manage these projects, they are still there, their policies are the same with only the PM changing. The guts of what they stand for is the same and we have dopy voters believing that magic will happen.

    • pete m says:

      08:36am | 29/06/10

      Some simple questions for Gillard.

      Question: Your BER built 1,400 libraries.  How many are staffed with a librarian and resourced with books?

      Answer:  Take off your socks and shoes but you wont reach 20.

      Question:  Your computers promised for each high school kid have reached what % of them?

      Answer:  Less than 25% or thereabouts.

      and how many schools have the programs and infrastructure to support those computers???

      lol

      The gross lack of planning in this education revolution should be on full display, and all a result of her handywork.

      Now lets talk industrial relations….

      which the unions have kept a little quiet waiting for this election to pass before really starting to stamp their authority post gfc blues

      it’s been a bit hard for them to encourage militancy when people are struggling to pay bills, but they wont wait much longer.

      Reply

    • Phil says:

      09:14am | 30/06/10

      Pete, dont hold your breath for answers.

      Labor dont know how to lie straight in bed let alone, give honest answers to what are clearly broken promises, lies or simply f__k ups.

    • BobM says:

      09:56am | 29/06/10

      Yes please - call the election sooner rather than later and you will find out what people really think of you and your pathetic government.

      Poll closed 28 Jun, 2010 Are you more likely to vote Labor with Julia Gillard as leader?
      Yes 42%
      No   58%
      Total votes: 150258.

      Reply

    • Against the Man says:

      10:11am | 29/06/10

      I might be wrong and someone could please correct me. Was Gillard a member of the communist party? If so are we crazy to elect someone who is going to re-distribute wealth and kill hard working middle class families?

      Reply

    • Roja says:

      11:23am | 29/06/10

      What like John Howard?

    • Against the Man says:

      02:03pm | 29/06/10

      No Gillard cannot be compared to Howard. Compare her to David Campbell.

    • Bruce says:

      03:29pm | 29/06/10

      Gillard was formerly the secretary of the left wing “Socialist Forum”. About as communist as you can get without calling it communist. The party wanted to scapp the ANZUS treaty as well as make Leoningrad the sister city of Melbourne, as well as impose a supertax on the rich. Whatever the rich ment ??  Its all in WIKIPEDIA. Have a read.

    • Francis says:

      10:32am | 29/06/10

      She undoubtly would win an election if it was called today and she must be tempted.

      There are a couple of factors that might stop her

      1/ The departure of Rudd was sudden (as admitted by Bill Shorten last night on Qand A) and it may leave alot of people in shock. People are feeling a little unsteady as the most important and powerful man in the country was quitely lead out side and shot.  We all hate pollies but we most people dont stand for political executions on this scale. So a the later the election the less people are likley to feel betrayed

      2/ She needs time to distance herself from Rudd and let people feel what the new leader is like. Dumping Rudd means she can dump all the failed probelms as well.

      3/ She need time to sort out the mining tax, ETS, BER, insulation, setting a new GST level ( although that will be after the election. and yes the opposition and the ALP will have to raise it.)

      4/ While owing the factions alot for her place she need to distance herslef at least publically from them. Get the idea that PM is the most powerful person not the faction it will be a tough gig as the Abbott will always remind people.

      5/ She need to distance herself a little from the looney left and learn ever so slightly to the centre. Lots of vote there.

      Reply

    • CynicalGoat WA says:

      03:54pm | 29/06/10

      “Dumping Rudd means she can dump all the failed problems as well”“...WTF. In whose mind Francis. Don’t tell me you’re another genius who is backing the ALP line that it was all Big Kev’‘s fault, and that Julia had nothing to do with any decision in the last 2 1/2 years. God help us.
      And this gem “She needs to distance herself a little from the looney left.” Newsflash Einstein. That is exactly where Gillard spends her entire working life and is most comfortable. She’s that left wing she makes the nutjob Greens look moderate.
      I shake my head at the naivety of the ALP sycophants.

    • Adam Diver says:

      09:24pm | 29/06/10

      @ Cynical Goat, I don’t thinkFrancis was endorsing her, just giving you her likely politcal playbook.

      Having said that, this election will be a gigantic farce.

    • BobM says:

      10:55am | 29/06/10

      You only have to do google search to find out anything you want to know.

      Eg.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julia_Gillard

      Reply

    • DJ says:

      11:38am | 29/06/10

      yessss, because Wikipedia is NEVER wrong and full of facts

    • Amber says:

      11:06am | 29/06/10

      Please someone correct me if I’m wrong, but I’m certain I saw a 4-Corners program where a university friend of Julia’s said that Julia was the biggest FASCIST in Australia at the time.
      So - what does she REALLY stand for?
      Re-election I would say!

      Reply

    • Tawks like that says:

      02:47am | 30/06/10

      Yes she is a Facist,but trakky dak voters dont know what that is,Fountain Gate voters dont read they just look at the pictures and relate to joolia,as an aside whoever is picking out her ensemble’s should have their guide dog visit opsm

    • demeter says:

      11:36am | 29/06/10

      Look every body has dirt or skeltons in the cupboard but Guillard was found innocent in defrauding the Union with Bruce Wilson. It was found the Wilson was using her and Guillard admitted that she was naive and foolish in the matter. As far as her relationship with Emerson, Michael O’Connor it was totally above board.

      Reply

    • Phil says:

      12:50pm | 29/06/10

      Member of the socialist alliance.
      Wanted to get rid of the US and NZ Alliance.
      Rich Tax?
      Death Duties
      Distribute wealth from rich to poor.
      These are but a few of the university group she was heavily involved in.
      Given the mining tax, which was class warfare, Who knows what the future holds.
      Leningrad as a sister city?
      Rudd was in with the Chinese, looks like Joolya will go for the Russian
      connections.
      Go Comrade Joolya
      Who she sleeps with is her business. I am quite sure she would not have slept her way to a safe labor seat.

    • Adam Diver says:

      09:26pm | 29/06/10

      Naive and foolish and running the country…hmmmm

    • nosthow says:

      11:53am | 29/06/10

      The message is clear - Gillard and Labor are winners and Abbott and his geriatric extreme right wingers are losers !

      Reply

    • demeter says:

      12:34pm | 29/06/10

      @ nosthow

      too right lets vote Gillard for PM as she clearly will be a good one.
      we need to destroy the lies of the coalition and family first parties and limit religious influence on Australia.

    • Shane From Melbourne says:

      12:12pm | 29/06/10

      I have a very real problem with the possibility of Labor being re-elected to a majority in federal parliament. I’d have to listen to the Liberals and their fanboys whine about how they deserve power for another three years. (As if the fact that they’ll pick up Victoria and NSW easily wasn’t consolation enough). God, with the amount of venom and bile they spout it’s like having Fox News switched on 24/7…....

      Reply

    • Brad Coward says:

      03:10pm | 29/06/10

      One of the usual Labor suspects was on TV crowing about what a great job Gillard has done since Thursday.  She has given two ministers extra duties and changed the name of a government department.

      Fan-freaking-tastic !  Imagine how great things will be after a fortnight !  Come back after a month and the earth will have shifted on it’s axis all because of Julia “Sparkles” Gillard !

      Reply

    • Peter says:

      03:20pm | 29/06/10

      I think she should wait till November to give us all a chance to see what she has to offer. But damned if you do, damned if you don’t I suppose. The Australian people did not vote for her and they deserve that right. If she goes early people don’t know what they are voting for, if she goes late, she might give Tony Abbott a chance and his awful PPL scheme might see the light of day….

      Reply

    • Blurt says:

      05:50pm | 29/06/10

      I think your right,she will go early,at about 7.30 she will be gone

      Reply

    • antiperspirant says:

      09:54pm | 29/06/10

      I approve of this message

    • Phil says:

      07:35am | 30/06/10

      Awesome comment. Well thought out.

    • Emily says:

      11:07pm | 29/06/10

      The Americans are waking up to the fact that the euphoria by electing their first black president are fading exceedingly quickly.  We should not be conned by Gillard the first female PM.  Look at her policy.  She is behind every failed policy of this pathetic government.  She is behind the most wasteful BER program that waste taxpayers fund, fund that are needed for other more worthwhile cost rather than lining the con artists’ pockets.  If she also can repeat after herself, in her own words, “every illegal ship arrival is the failure of the federal government” 141 times in front of TV cameras and apologise to the Australian public.  If she can repent from her past association with the left socialist believes.  In the core she is the most left winged PM we ever get.  So what if she is smart?  North Korea leader is smart too.  Otherwise how could he cling on to power while the population are staving?  I hope my fellow Australian can look beyond the symbolism of the first female PM, look at her policy, look at her past record, there is very little worth rejoicing or to be proud of.  She is the one capable of smiling at you, pledging loyalty and stab a knife into your back.  I would not believe a word she said that she is working for the good of Australia.  She cannot be trusted

      Reply

    • Robert Smissen Rural SA says:

      11:53pm | 29/06/10

      Funny isn’t it that prior to the 2007 election I predicted Red Julia would shiv Little Kevvy before 2010, I was ridiculed in online forums. The only thing I got wrong was that it took more than 12 that I predicted.

      Reply

    • dobbo says:

      11:14am | 30/06/10

      Definitely smart to go to polls early and get the public to ratify the ALP’s caucus decision made when they realised Kevin was cactus.

      Feel things will clarify a lot once voters get their heads around what the alternative is.

      Also for all the tut tutting about how things have been done, reckon if you talked to a successful businessman about what he’d do to a manager who couldn’t make progress against competitors, the answer would be short and sweet and definitely look like last week’s decision.

      In fact wouldn’t be surprised to hear a lot of business people are (secretly) giving enormous kudos to the professional, if brutal, way things were done by a very focussed and effective ALP.

      Compare this with the way no one was able to tap on Howard’s shoulder in a similar situation and you get my drift.

      Also there’s the aftermath where the ALP charges ahead actually picking up momentum after such a huge change. Nothing clunky here in the way it all operates.

      In fact based on these realities, it’s unlikely that the Libs will get back into power for a long time yet.

      Reply
 
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