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Brumby railroaded as Victoria turns into NSW

Barry Everingham

by Barry Everingham

17 Feb 05:30am

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Filed under: John Brumby, Ted Baillieu, Victorian Government

31 comments

There’s a light at the end on John Brumby’s tunnel. And it ain’t no oncoming train because Melbourne’s train system is off the rails.

Voters hand Brumby a sandwich of a different kind.

That’s one of the reasons the electors of Altona – one of the State’s safest ALP seats – gave the Brumby government as massive thumbs down in last Saturday’s by election by handing Ted Baillieu’s   Liberals a whopping 12.3% swing.

While the ALP stalwarts were licking their wounds Brumby caused a huge groan to emerge by referring to the swing as “fantastic” – a mate of “The Punch” asked “what IS that guy on?” It has to be remembered that all Big Ted Baillieu needs to form a government is an overall swing of 6.5%.

Melbourne’s rail system is, to put it mildly, cactus, which is the reason the by election was held.  Former Transport Minister Lynn Kosky suddenly needed to get out for “family reasons” – don’t they all when the chips are down? - after bungling not only the rail system but administering a multi million dollar ticketing system which just won’t work.

For the past few very hot summers the train lines have been buckling and busses have replaced the trains while workers hosed the rails and belted them back to shape; I kid you not – this is Melbourne not Baghdad.

Then came the fiasco of the brand new super trains - 38 of the monsters ordered from a French company who makes them in Poland and Italy and bills us $18.8 million for each of them.

On Monday excitement was at fever pitch – we were to see the first of them; the beginning of the end of the massive stuff up was near.

Ooops – didn’t happen. The train drivers put the kybosh on that one citing “unresolved safety issues”.  There are three others getting “adjustments” made as well and another we hear is on the way as we speak.

But the fun’s not over yet – there’s the ongoing stouch concerning the brutalizing of Indian students studying here which Brumby seems to think is only a temporary aberration while Baillieu seems to have his fingers on the real pulse.

Baillieu says there’s been an increase in street violence since Labor came to power here ten years ago citing official figures to back up his claim. He realistically claims the attacks on the Indians are racially motivated which of course they are.

Sorry to say young bogans from the city’s West are having a rip roaring time at the expense of the mild mannered young students and its getting out of hand.

Victoria hasn’t quite descended to where New South Wales sits right now but let’s watch this space – could be interesting.

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31 comments

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    • persephone says:

      06:40am | 17/02/10

      So many factually incorrect statements, where to start?

      Firstly, there has been a decline in all types of crime in Victoria over the last ten years. Street violence was rising (in this context) but has been declining. Victoria is the safest state in Australia.

      Ballieu’s use of official figures was shown to be flawed, as he had to admit.

      As far as these things can be proved either way, the attacks on Indian students do not appear to be racially motivated (as the Indian government itself has tacitly admitted, by asking its media to wind back the rhetoric).

      Kosky did resign because of a crisis in her family, as the Opposition and all media sources acknowledge as true.

      No, a 12% swing is not good. It’s partly explained by the popularity of Kosky in her electorate and by a change in the demographics but it’s also unlikely to be replicated at a true election.

      Brumby is getting a warning, but that’s no reason to distort the facts.

      Reply

    • acker says:

      08:34am | 17/02/10

      Brumby’s lack of use of official figures appears to be more flawed than Ballieu’s use of officiial figures…It has been widely reported that Indian students are statistically represented as perpertrators of all crime in Australia are lower than just about all other ethnic goup including all that are Australian citizens per head of population.

      Brumby is just seeking the popularity of the mob, and he doesn’t seem to mind compromising a bit of ethical integrity to get it.

    • persephone says:

      08:47am | 17/02/10

      No, Brumby’s statements are clearly backed by the statistics, as independent academic assessment of the material has clearly shown.

      No one is accusing the Indian population of being criminals, so I’m not sure what your point is.

      A politician - especially a Premier - has the responsibility to base their statements on factual information, even if it doesn’t play to the audience.

      I’m not sure why so many people are willing to rush to accept the belief that we’re a racist society, when reality suggests otherwise.

    • Randal says:

      09:30am | 17/02/10

      The only figure fudging has been by the State Government and the Victoria Police who have have been hauled over the coals by the A-G with their appalling use of classification of crimes.

      This was a process implemented by Nixon to make the figures look better than they are and has unfortunately been continued on by Overland and the published crime figures are an indictment upon the abuse of statistical information by both the government and Police command.

      The raw data, as used by Bailleu, is from Victoria Police and the flaw was not in Bailleu’s use as you claim, but in the collation of untrustworthy data by VicPol, and indeed the raw data clearly shows an enormous spike in violent crime in the decade from from 1999 when compared back to 1989 - 1999.

      This was not denied by VicPol, they instead stated that the “crime reporting of thr 90’s was flawed… “that there has been population increases… “that more crime is reported now than previous…” Therefore the data could not be relied upon and instead the Opposition should use VicPol’s doctored figures that excludes little things like, reported assaults where there is not a witness avaliable,  hardly convincing arguments and a clear sign to all who live in the State and have seen crime (in particular violent crime) go through the roof, and is a clear sign that police command are continuing to diddle the books, just as the A-G found under Nixon’s reign.

    • persephone says:

      09:49am | 17/02/10

      Randall

      so why did Ballieu say he was wrong, then?

    • Jack Thomas says:

      01:05pm | 17/02/10

      Is ‘persephone’ Latin for ALP lackey and mouthpiece?

      There you go again, defending the indefensible. Seriously Victorian Labor under Brumby is the test case for how not to govern. You will struggle to find a bigger list of stuff ups, budget overruns, Ministerial disasters and dodgy behaviour, and failures to deliver than anywhere.

      Under Brumby, Victoria is more of a rust belt than under Joan Kirner. If Ted B wasn’t such a deadsht, we wouldn’t even be talking about Brumby right now. Be honest persephone please, it was a warning in the same way the NY’s day Tsunami was.

      A 12% swing in a working class area, with no celebrity candidate (ala Peter Garret or Maxine McKew) and only a toff from Toorak being identifiable on the other side? Come on.

      Are you sure Kosky didn’t resign due to being the scapegoat for the complete and utter stuff up on Myki by Labor, which included it costing $1 billion to date ($189 million over budget to date), one and a half years behind, and still not even operating yet?

      What is the launch date again persi, you must have it up the wall there at ALP central?

      I’ll bet Brumby was sad to see her go, in an election year and all.

      How about the years of Theophanous as Industry Minister is a perfect example. He didn’t even meet with industry bodies for 18 months, then left in an ‘alleged’ rape scandal, while Brumby was too scared to act due to his factional fears. 

      Justin Madden’s pumping of the residential bubble through his Planning portfolio and complete failure to assist any reasonable supply/development. Planing is another unmitigated disaster in Victoria, lots of reports, plans and “we’re looking into it” though.

      How about the revolving door of Police Ministers and the massive decline in standards of the police itself, with corruption to rival Naples. Hell, it even surned Underbelly. Successive Brumby-appointed Chiefs of Police prefer to march in Gay Pride than attend things like Kinglake anniversay bushfire memorials on the same day, and make a point of denying the fact that volence in Melbourne CBD rivals Port Moresby. Arguing extrapolation of derived statistics shows how out of touch and desperate they and the ALP are here.

      Keep fiddling Nero.

      Phosperous, I reckon you’re being paid to post your Labor spin and twaddle, so why not do so I guess? Keeps you off the streets.

    • persephone says:

      01:55pm | 17/02/10

      Jack Thomas

      All I’ve done here is correct some facts. If you want to dispute them, do so.

      Noone has disputed that Kosky’s departure was for genuine family reasons - the Opposition has been just as quick as the government to slap down any other suggestion, but if you want to say the Libs are lying about this, be my guest.

      The rest of your post is just a rant. ‘Revolving door of police ministers’,  indeed - a couple in ten years.

      And Brumby’s only ever appointed one police commissioner.

      Facts are good things, Jack. Learn what they are and use them.

    • Jack Thomas says:

      02:10pm | 17/02/10

      Thanks persie, was the free lunch a bit off in ALP HQ or did I just rile you?

      Victoria has the worst police-to-population rate in the nation, with just 206 police for every 100,000 people, against NSW’s 237. Correct me if I am wrong.

      As a result, Frankston Council has had to go to the extraordinary steps of employing private security to do the job of the police.

      According to my reading of the official figures, assaults by strangers rose 269 per cent, and pack attacks - assaults by gangs of four or more - were up 124 per cent. Serious injuries resulting from assaults went from 1308 to 3114. Please correct me if I am wrong.

      Myki has blown $1 billion to date and is not even in place. The project is already $189 million over budget and eighteen months behind. It has not even been delivered. Correct me if I am wrong.

      Last year the Ombudsman, George Brouwer, found crimes such as assault were being under-reported in Victoria, in part because police in Victoria counted only crimes a witness would swear to, rather than all that had been reported. He added: “I also identified that some police misuse the procedures for recording cleared crime to make it appear that more crime has been successfully solved than is actually the case.” Correct George if he is wrong.

      Dr Don Weatherburn, of the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research, is on record stating that Victoria Police’s dodgy record-keeping “lures the Victorian public into thinking that there isn’t a serious assault problem in Victoria when in fact there may well be a serious problem, or one at least that’s as serious as it is in any other state”. Correct Don if he is wrong.

      Chief of Police Nixon intervened during the last federal election campaign to reject Liberal claims that the crime rate of Sudanese and Somali refugees here was worryingly high, insisting: “Those Sudanese refugees are actually under-represented in the crime statistics.” Nixon’s claim was false - Sudanese were in fact over-represented in the few crime statistics (she only later released), and by a factor of at least four. Nixon has been corrected, she is wrong and she is now gone. 

      You sound like a Labor stooge. Correct me if I am wrong.

    • Jack Thomas says:

      07:37pm | 18/02/10

      Persie? Hello?

      Cat got your tongue, or just unable to waffle more spin around the disaster Victoria has become again under Labor?

      Has Brumbles got you out writing another press release?

      Maybe it’s one about the new train. Yes, the one carriage he has managed to deliver in ten years, oh that’s right it hasn’t even been delivered. A union mate has stuffed him up. Nice.

      Seriously, where do you come up with fairytales and lies like: “Brumby has done a lot with public transport, reopening, renewing and extending lines, bringing new trains into service, and so on. “

      Are you living in a parallel universe?

    • acker says:

      06:57am | 17/02/10

      Baillieu has been brave enough to look at the Indian attacks from a more unbiased point of view….
      Bravery is a rare trait in a politician, I think Brumby who is not as charismatic as Bracks has some big problems

      Reply

    • Altona Voter says:

      08:53am | 17/02/10

      It is obvious persephone and the author of this piece do not live in the Altona electorate, well I do, and I can tell you why there was a swing, and it has nothing to do with the popularity of or otherwise of Kosky, buckled train lines or Indian bashings.

      The swing was due to frustration at the inaction in addressing the growing infrastructure and community issues caused by a decades of neglect by the current government and those that preceded them in the West of Melbourne.

      Roads are chaotic and at a standstill every day, public transport is limited and where it does it exist infrequent, health facilities are rare and were they do exist are underfunded with a poor level of care by national standards, public educational facilities are sub-standard and access to private schools are limited,  Police are basically non-existent with numbers through the floor, and when called attend many hours after an event, if at all.

      Population continues to explode yet there has been very limited public money in providing the basic infrastructure for this increase, and in any event the current infrastructure was failing the needs of the existing population before the boom.

      Essentially the West has been the poor cousin to the East and South for years and the voters have had enough and have given notice to Brumby that the continued lack of inaction will not be tolerated, whether this extends across the State I do not know, but as a Victorian living in the West the anger is building and this will show at the ballot box.

      Reply

    • persephone says:

      09:07am | 17/02/10

      Happy to accept your statements, Altona voter - my main point was that Everingham wasn’t stating facts, and your post tends to support this.

    • Aitch B says:

      09:20am | 17/02/10

      @Altona Voter:

      As an Eastern suburbanite I symapthise with you. It does seem that the West has been and is being neglected in the basic and necessary areas that you have indicated. More power to you and the other voters in the West. If the government is not listening to you then the only way to get your message across is at the polls. However, I have my doubts that any alternative government or even a fresh labor one will address any of the issues in the short to medium term.

      Reply

    • Altona Voter says:

      09:40am | 17/02/10

      Aitch B - Agreed, both sides has negelected the West for decades and the only way we will see action is to try and marginalise our electorates, as at current numbers the ALP do nothing because every body votes for them and the Libs do nothing because nobody votes for them.

      The more of a swing seat that electorates in the west become the more likely that we will see investment and infrastructure, regardless of which sides wins the contest.

      Reply

    • acker says:

      09:46am | 17/02/10

      @persephone….other than some fairly empty rhetoric loyally defending Brumby, your not really putting anything substantial into this debate

      Reply

    • persephone says:

      10:59am | 17/02/10

      And you are, acker?? Other than, of course, loyally defending Ballieu?

      I’ve just corrected some misinformation. You’re welcome to disprove what I’ve said.

    • acker says:

      11:12am | 17/02/10

      @persephone ...I hope your not Barry Hall !!  ..we want him attacking the ball for the Dog’s this year and not the man like you are wink

    • persephone says:

      01:57pm | 17/02/10

      Too funny, acker.

      Pity you wouldn’t understand the concept of ‘irony’, or I’d explain why.

    • Randal says:

      10:48am | 17/02/10

      persephone, you are playing with words, Baillieu admitted to not including a change in the labeling of “Serious injuries by assaults” category in VicPol’s reporting, which was corrected and had no bearing on the obvious increase in crime through the raw data and VicPol did not dispute any figures supplied by the opposition and in fact confirmed they were correct and instead babbled about different reporting techniques in the past ten years.

      Are you as an apologist for the ALP, disputing the evidence from the raw data that reports of crime, and in particular stating that violent crime has not increased dramatically in the past decade in Victoria?

      Reply

    • AdamC says:

      12:36pm | 17/02/10

      Brumby seems to be a victim of his predecessor’s notorious ‘do nothing’ approach. I have been impressed by Brumby’s relative vigour. Projects such as channel deepening, desalination and the north/south water pipeline (many of which had been talked about for a decade) suddenly started to happen. The problem was, many of these projects, especially the water ones and the Myki ticketing system, are utter duds.

      And the even bigger problem is that Brumby has not done anything about public transport capacity, infrastructure or reliability, nor has he done anything to address street violence. Persephone’s difficulty in trying to convince anyone of the supposed inaccuracy of Baillieu’s statements about rising crime is instructive: Melburnians know what is going on in their own city! And, while Victoria remains the safest state, that is not an excuse for ignoring rising crime until it affects a more important group of people than actual Melburnians, then simply obfuscating when it does and creating an international incident!

      Reply

    • persephone says:

      02:04pm | 17/02/10

      Adam C

      I’m not interested in VicPol’s figures, always mistrustful of organisations reporting on their own performance.

      I’m going by ABS statistics, which back up both the claim that Vic is the safest state AND that crime rates have fallen over the last ten years.

      And yes, Brumby has done a lot with public transport, reopening, renewing and extending lines, bringing new trains into service, and so on. The problem has been a massive growth in the use of public transport, far higher than predicted, and therefore a timelag in catching up on demand.

      Yes, a very very good government should have been prepared for this, as they should also have been prepared for Victoria’s massive and unprecedented population growth, which has put a further strain on services.

      But given that noone, in government or out, were making any such predictions, that’s a really big call.

      As for street violence, that has declined over the past couple of years, because of the focus on it by the police and the government.

      The rise in attacks on Indians has not been denied by anybody, let alone the government. What is in dispute is whether these attacks are racist, and the evidence appears to conclude that, by and large, they’re not.

      It’s important to identify the causes of a problem before dealing with it. If you act on the assumption that you know the cause without testing the evidence, then you don’t solve the problem.

      Reply

    • Randal says:

      03:42pm | 17/02/10

      What a load of rot persephone, do you write this crap with a straight face, well here is some stats from an independent organisation for you, Victoria Uni, who have just released figures relating to the worst kept secret in Victoria, that violent crime is on the rise:

      Let’s see how your comment “As for street violence, that has declined over the past couple of years, because of the focus on it by the police and the government…” stacks up to independent review:

      Victoria University Study:

      “increased trend towards violent street crime in general across metropolitan Melbourne (Victoria Police 2009b). Across Victoria, crime data for the 2008-9 financial year shows that the numbers of assaults rose by 7.4% while there was a 9% increase in homicides. There was also a 92% rise in violent behaviour in public offences (Victoria Police 2009b). In the divisional data which includes Melbourne’s central business district (CBD), the trend towards increasingly violent street crime is apparent in the number of assaults for 2008-9, which rose by 13.2% from 2007-8 and in the number of homicides, up 150% from 2007-8. In addition, across the Melbourne LGA data, there was a 690% increase in public behaviour offences (Victoria Police 2009c).

      Wow I guess that takes a little wind out of the old sails from the ALP “We are the safest State” fantasy camp…

      Just spin and doddle and another example of inaction whilst the joint goes to hell, you want a solution to the problem, more Police and tougher sentencing and a crime reporting regime that looks at the actuals and does not try to bury the facts under the carpet.

    • Jane says:

      04:48pm | 17/02/10

      Perse says -:
      “I’m not interested in VicPol’s figures, always mistrustful of organisations reporting on their own performance.
      I’m going by ABS statistics, which back up both the claim that Vic is the safest state AND that crime rates have fallen over the last ten years”

      You do realise, don’t you Perse, that the ABS figures on crime actually come from Police figures ( and courts etc) ....and from the community through population surveys of how they ‘feel’ about various crime in their local ( residential) area. If they don’t ‘know’ about it….or are reticent to claim it as a ‘problem’ or an indictment on their area ....it hardly stacks up as definitive fact or figure….

    • Randal says:

      02:26pm | 17/02/10

      persephone am I to take your lack of response to my question that you now accept that violent crime is on the rise in Victoria?

      Perhaps on this basis you would like to retract your silly “Victoria is the safest State…” comment… or do you really believe that an evening walk through the city back streets and parks is more dangerous in WA, SA, QLD and Tasmania… I know a few Indian fellows that might not quite share your enthusiasm.

      Reply

    • Jane says:

      04:25pm | 17/02/10

      Spot on Jack Thomas and Randal. Poor old Perse the bullyboy Labor moll meets his match with those who know what they are talking about.
      He’s an absolute joke.

      Brumby had always been the real ‘leader’ here in Victoria…it’s just that he was unpalatable to be put up as so to the voter…so they roped in likeable baby faced Bracks, who just happened to be a bonus being a Ballarat boy when Ballarat was marginal. Bracks was a puppet head..but Brumby pulled the strings. Brumby would never have got Labor over the line had he fronted the Party, so Bracksy gave it one more shot for the team and jumped ship just 8 months later ( with that other shonk Thwaites) leaving Brumby ‘head’ by default.
      Ahh Bracksy, Master’s Apprentice of rust belt co-creator Joan Kirner….it was guaranteed to fail from the beginning…...and it’s no surprise we are in the mess we are in now as cumulative.
      Federal Labor has/is learning alot from Victorian Labor…with Trojan Horse Rudd.

      Police numbers and increasing them (I think by 900 EXTRA was the pledge) were a major election promise in ‘99 and again last election…NOTHING has been done and we are worse off now….a decade of FAIL. They’re were lucky to even counter attrition rates. The Ballarat region is short 98 police officers ...just talk to some of the police and see what they have to say about ‘figures’ and policing in general.

      Labor have failed on infrastructure - both well documented Metro fiascos and also Regional.. ( need we even mention the useless Regional Farce Train project that Labor costed at $80m that blew out to $800m…without the actual trains!!)....and every other department that it is responsible for…..but mostly on water, with wasted years of it’s preferred method of governance across all areas of DO NOTHING. When it began hit the fan, was too late and doing nothing other than praying for rain wasn’t going to work, hey, lets steal from those least likely to vote Labor to give to others. The Goldfields Stupidpipe and Sugarloaf abomination classic standouts.
      The chickens have come home to roost now.
      No amount of pedantic posturing will negate that REALITY Perse.
      Labor =EPIC FAIL

    • acker says:

      02:33pm | 17/02/10

      @persephone ..the only irony is that you have so many posts in this thread you may as well have written the article, and perhaps changed the header to “Why I Love John Brumby”

      Reply

    • persephone says:

      04:56pm | 17/02/10

      Guys, tell you what - google ‘victoria safest state’ and see what you find. I can’t be bothered linking all the references.

      Randal, the answer is ‘no’. Melbourne CBD is not Victoria. Yes, the rate of assaults have risen by 5.4% (your figure is derived from overall increases, which don’t take into account population growth) but the overall rate of crimes against the person has fallen by 0.2%.

      As the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the one who claims Victoria is the safest state, ask them for a retraction.

      (And a link would be useful - Victoria Uni does a lot of reports, I can’t find the one you refer to).

      Acker, if people address me by name, I assume they want an answer - look at how cranky Randal got ‘cos I didn’t bother responding to him.

      And if I’d written the article, I would have checked some of my facts, instead of just taking them off the pages of the local tabloids.

    • Anthony says:

      03:41pm | 17/02/10

      Persephone-Stats like ones our hospitals collects are not worth quoting. Perhaps Brumby is onto something in not appreciating them, as he knows even the stats are rubbish let alone his response to them.

      Reply

    • Grumbles says:

      05:16pm | 17/02/10

      If NSW and/or Victoria return their Labor Governments to power, they deserve all the pain they are going to get. Words fail me! Worst Job Ever!

      Reply

    • Andrew Goff says:

      08:17pm | 17/02/10

      I think that Brumby is doing a terrible job, and that the Labor party are probably corrupt.

      Ballieu, on the other hand, is regressive and foolhardy - trying to reduce complex problems to simple solutions. Typical political bulldust in other words.

      But the real problem is our gross and bloated public service. Examples: Less police per population than NSW, but more people working for the police department.

      We have MORE liquor lic. staff than NSW, but they STILL can’t get it right with ANYTHING… from beer barns in docklands to penalising live music. INSANE.

      Until we hire some people who are from the real world instead of the grey public service culture we will never have an effective government, Corrupt Labor or Incompetent Liberal is the best we can hope for :(

      Reply

    • Randal says:

      08:05am | 18/02/10

      Spin… Spin… Spin, mis-information and outright lies with no evidence to support yourself Persephone, you sound like a Brumby pet, no violent crime here guys look away, Victoria is the safest State, I kjnow I googled it, here is some dodgy manipulated figures to prove it.

      Of course a look at the real stats shows a completely different story and violent crime is through the roof, and let me quote Judy Putt from the Australian Institute of Criminology:

      “The rate of aggravated assault appears to have contributed to the marked rise in recorded assault, and for both assault and sexual assault the rate of increase was greater for children aged under 15 years, with increases almost double that of the older age group. Neither population changes among young adult males nor rates of offending seem to explain the trends in recorded violent crime, and indicators of change in reporting to police provide only a partial explanation…”

      I think I might take her expert opinion over that of you and Brumby, but you can continue to live in denial if you like, fortunately those at the ballot box are not falling for the rubbish.

      As part of your education, here is the study from Vic Uni:

      http://www.vu.edu.au/news/community-safety-of-international-students-in-melbourne

      Then again you want to walk around with your head up your bum and spruik the party line, good luck with that, perhaps you should wander around the town and suburbs late at night spruiking how safe Melbourne’s streets are, maybe then you will get the reality check that you need.

      Reply
 
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