The ‘world’s most wanted man’, Osama bin Laden is dead. For all the latest news, see www.news.com.au. For an analysis of what it means, here is what Matthew Gray, ANU expert in Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies, had to say.
This is a symbolic victory, and there’s considerable satisfaction for those who wanted revenge. I’m not sure it’ll have that much operational or strategic impact on Al Qaeda, though.
Osama was not, as far as I can tell, doing much direct operational work or strategic stuff beyond setting vague directions as to where the Al Qaeda ‘brand name’ might go from here – Al Qaeda is now a set of like-minded groups in different parts of the world.
So this won’t help in terms of how the war on terrorism is fought, but it will offer an enormous satisfaction and a symbolic victory, and it may have some impact in the Arab world.
It’s hard to know if there’ll be retaliation
Al Qaeda would have difficulty retaliating except in an ad hoc way.
The ‘original’ Al Qaeda are probably not able to retaliate without further consideration and planning. We may get low-scale or amateurish stuff claiming to be retaliating but the truth is Al Qaeda has been somewhat bruised by the US war on terror – it’s geographically split now; it’s not a holistic organisation, although there are some structured parts of it, say on the Arabian Peninsula.
I would be just as concerned about civil unrest, which in Pakistan in particular is possible. There could be anti-US unrest, or widespread rioting. There is also the prospect there’ll be supporters of Al Qaeda not so much launching revenge attacks but they may up the tempo of attacks in Iraq or Afghanistan because they see this as a victory for the US.
On the funding of Al Qaeda
I don’t know how much of his money was left – he was obviously well connected or had some money left, the family has a lot of money but whether he did or not is not all that clear.
The other interesting question is whether anyone will get the reward – they may have busted a code or picked him up on a phone – or, which is as likely if not more likely, is that someone did see him or know where he was.
On US President Barack Obama’s response
That’s the 2012 campaign speaking when he emphasises his and his government’s role.
But he played it the way he should have. You can’t dance, smile and sing. There are enough people in the Muslim world who appreciate bin Laden had the guts to take on the Americans. He said things that were popular.
Obama’s image in the Muslim world wouldn’t have been helped if he’d stood up and done a song and dance. So he conveyed a sense of satisfaction – he came across quite well. He was Presidential, eloquent and precise.
A lot of the information now will come out more slowly.
A good question is who owns the place where he was killed? It’s in old-fashioned government held territory, but who owned the property?
How much did the Pakistani military intelligence know? If he was in that house for more than a couple of weeks it would be very hard for the Pakistani intelligence to explain themselves. They tend to know what people had for breakfast
As for the impact on Australia
There’ll be a slightly changed risk for our soldiers in Afghanistan. If there’s an outpouring of support for Osama, or if the Taliban make life difficult we might face a higher risk of attacks. Beyond that, I don’t think there’s a great impact here.
The fact they got good enough intelligence to get this bloke is quite impressive. It’s good news. Even if it’s just symbolic.
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