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Biggest moments of 2011 #20 PM’s popularity flatlines

Daniel Piotrowski

by Daniel Piotrowski

04 Dec 05:45am

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Filed under: Biggest Moments Of 2011, Julia Gillard, Newspoll, Politics

46 comments

What happened
Imagine if 77 per cent of your work colleagues or your friends were dissatisfied with you, or cared too little to have an opinion. That’s what happened to Julia Gillard this year. A huge majority of Australians turned their backs on the PM. She hit rock bottom.

The Labor caucus ain't no Grey's Anatomy. Picture: Kristi Miller

According to Newspoll, voter satisfaction with the Prime Minister fell to a record low of 23 per cent in September. You can’t tell us Rudd would have ever sunk that low if he hadn’t been knifed and had somehow won the last election.

Gillard’s disastrous polling came immediately after the High Court struck down the Malaysian Solution, leaving Australia’s immigration policy lost at sea. It also came around the a time of persistent rumbling about Kevin Rudd mounting a leadership challenge against the PM. And that wasn’t all the bad news from the court of public opinion.

The September Newspoll also found Kevin Rudd was a vastly more popular alternative PM than Gillard and that the Coalition’s support was its highest level since the days after September 11, 2001. The only modern day Prime Minister to have sunk lower than Gillard in the public esteem is Paul Keating, who had a 17 per cent satisfaction rating in August 1993.

What happened next
The PM rebounded. But she hardly bounded into the stratosphere. The bounce was more like that of a flat basketball.

Despite some legislative successes and the most recent Newspoll finding she’s now beating Tony Abbott in the preferred PM stakes, Labor is currently down 57-43 in the two party preferred polls.

That’s not just a landslide, it’s a lahar.

What we learned
Sure, Australians rejected the government this year for reasons of policy and policy vacuums. But that’s not the lesson to take away from this.

The real lesson of Gillard’s unpopularity is that Australians hate their leaders being knifed before their time is up. For instance, Bob Hawke had a red hot go for several years. But when he started vacillating over making decisions, Australians didn’t mind Paul Keating taking him out with the trash (for a few years, anyway).

And John Howard won the support of the Australian people several times but people eventually got sick of him. His time was up. And it’s clear now the Liberal Party would’ve been better served if Costello had taken Howard’s job before the 2007 election.

Kevin Rudd’s time wasn’t up. He’d belted Howard in 2007. The Australian people didn’t understand how somebody who’d been granted a clear mandate to govern had been so easily dismissed by his party just because times got a little tough.

It was the break-up few saw coming. Particularly since the 2007 election was so presidential. A battle of the personalities between Kevin 07 and John 96.

Lots of Australians were used to seeing their Labor Premiers rotating in and out of power. Anna Bligh called it “New South Wales disease”. But the office of Prime Minister lives in a higher plane than Premiers in Australian culture. And Australians were disgusted to the see their PM treated like that by faceless men. 

Let’s hope this country has built up an immunity to these types of shenanigans into the future.

How The Punch covered it
Gillard was up the creek without a paddle, wrote polticial scientist and retired professor of politics Dean Jaensch. The poll was “catastrophic” for the government, he said.

Amongst the catastrophe was talk of a Labor saviour. Mal Farr looked at the Worst Poll For Labor Ever from the angle of the Rudd leadership rumblings. He warned us that Abbott was stoking the fires of leadership speculation, and said that if you really wanted to know whether Rudd was going to take over, you’d find out in the fortnight after the poll.

Rudd hasn’t challenged. At least not yet. Gillard may have crashed and she’s definitely in the intensive care unit. But she enters the New Year not being on life support like she was in September. 

Most commented

46 comments

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    • Erick says:

      05:08am | 04/12/11

      No mention of the carbon tax lie? Or Mark Kenny’s theory that Gillard is unpopular because Australians hate women?

      Reply

    • Terry says:

      02:46pm | 04/12/11

      Love it! You are the best! Every time I read your comments I am assured we are marking time for Elections when we can get rid of the back stabbing Gillard and the lost its way Labor Party!

    • NESLIHAN KUROSAWA says:

      06:10am | 04/12/11

      Hi Daniel,

      I am truly impressed that you happen to be working on the weekends!!  When it comes to Ms Julia Gillard in this particular case, the issue of your colleagues not liking you, is generally something that you learn to live with!!  My great grand mother used to say “no lives with someone else’s love & affection, but to have the actual respect & gratitude of others is one of the greatest things in the world”!!

      When it comes our Prime Minister, Ms Gillard” case, I think that same should apply here as well!!  Personally speaking, we should all be remembered by the things we have done well by others, whether they happen to be our work colleagues, friends & the general public!!

      I truly believe that just criticizing others endlessly does not accomplish anything concrete or long term!!  I would like to think that we look up to our Leaders to solve all the current problems, very quickly!!  Is that really possible in the world of Politics??  That is the reason why we have the general elections to in order to elect the best person for the top job!!

      When something is not working properly, all ALP members should come together to discuss things in general!!  I presume that sooner than later Ms Gillard will begin to feel a little bit isolated & alone!!  I am just wondering though, is it because of her wrong policies only??

      Or in a way she would like the whole world to know that she can do the job better than her predecessors??  Also Ms Julia Gillard might have been trying to hard to impress others instead of getting on with the actual job of being a Leader??  Believe or not leading others into putting their trust in you again, must be one of the toughest jobs in the world!!  Best regards to your editors.

      Reply

    • Brian Taylor says:

      06:31am | 04/12/11

      her time is coming and fast.
      Labor is crawling in the gutter for the gay vote and it won’t help Julia or Bligh one bit.
      every pollie is seen as a snake, doesn’t matter which party they come from
      The greenies are seen as crazy wackjobs, the LNP AND ALP are both as bad as each other and Katter, he really should be joining the greenies because he sure is wacko
      it really all boils down to the fact that it’s the public’s fault for not caring enough to really research the person they end up voting for.
      The pollie smiles well and talks a good talk so I’ll vote for him, whatever happened to installing a pollie who really believes in helping people, after all, isn’t that what they’re supose to be entering Govt services for? to help us?
      every day it seems, that we’re reading about one pollie or another being done for ripping off the system, we now read that they gave themselves a huge pay rise (because the poor dears weren’t getting paid enough)
      I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, the only two reasons pollies become pollies No1, they’re as bent as a two bob watch or No2, they couldn’t get a real job

      Reply

    • Against the Man says:

      06:35am | 04/12/11

      Gillard is a goner one way or the other.

      1) She knifed Rudd which wasn’t a smart thing.
      2) She can’t deliver political results if her hair dye depended on it.
      3) She has damaged the ALP brand (which may be considered a plus)
      4) She is awkward - ARIA awards, in front of the Queen, at the Queensland floods and Tim doesn’t really help the situation
      5) Australians just don’t like her, hell at the height of her popularity she couldn’t beat Abbott, what chance does she have now.

      The ALPers are in deep denial, but they can’t explain those poll numbers mentioned in this article. If they can I’m listening. We are all listening smile

      Reply

    • TChong says:

      06:54am | 04/12/11

      “she is awkward….”
      Unlike you, of course AtM- you are renowned for your grace and poise.
      June Dalley Watkins Dux of 1955 , werent you?  wink

    • Against the Man says:

      07:38am | 04/12/11

      TChong…...interesting reply for 2 reasons:

      1) Couldn’t counter any of the points so I guess I’m right.
      2) As someone who is a PAID ALP employee who we all noticed was recently on extended vacation, I’m surprised you think you have any credibility on this forum. But you must fight so hard against me and all those coalition forces cause your job depends on it. I would hate to see you unemployed because you work for an awkward ‘leader’ of a DoDo party wink

      ps: To those that don’t know I’ve asked Chongy on multiple times here on the Punch if he works for the ALP and on every occasion he suddenly stops responding to the comments. Guess the only reason is cause Chongy knows I know…...........

    • gobsmack says:

      08:22am | 04/12/11

      @AtM
      1) getting rid of that vacillator did everyone (except Rudd) a favour;
      2) she’s delivered heaps - the main complaint from Liberal apparatchiks such as yourself is what she is delivering;
      3) time will tell if that’s true;
      4) and 5) you might be too young to remember Malcolm Fraser who won three elections, two convincingly.
      Keep dreaming mate.  Only two years to go.

    • TimB says:

      08:25am | 04/12/11

      ATM, whilst I agree with you on many things paticularly regarding the ALP, it really should be made clear that Chongy wasn’t on a ‘paid vacation’.

      It’s up to him if he wants to share that explanation with you, but please take my advice: Don’t push this one.

      As you were Chongy wink

    • nossy says:

      09:05am | 04/12/11

      @TimB wise words from you Tim - you are the decent face of the Liberal Party and poor old ATM is in the “nutter” class - but we all love him dont we?

    • TChong says:

      09:10am | 04/12/11

      Atm old pal
      Never have belonged to the ALP , ever. Repeat- never a member of any political party.
      Paid holiday- correct
      I paid for it.
      “Must” fight you so hard..” ?
      No , AtM, lifes too short for me to fight you, or anyone else who posts at dear old Good Ship Punch.
      Its all good for a larf,
      Finally AtM - I work for Bazza, via NSW Health.

      TimB -with thanks.
      If you notice AtM, I disagree with the politics of TimB, EricK, Dash, FF, NicoleG and many others, but dont bear them any malice.
      Most of us can disagree about things, but still share a larf about all the rest of life that isnt partisan political.
      Try it some time.

    • Martin says:

      09:50am | 04/12/11

      It is certainly no surprise that the likes of the laughable “Nossy” or TChong turn up to defend the undefendable. All we need is the irrational blurting of Acotrel and then we will truly have the 3 stooges.

      Just as an aside, I can’t get over the coverage on Sky News of this ALP national wankfest. I mean, the way it is being covered hour upon hour, you would think it is the royal tour or a visit from Obama or some great world tragedy. But no, it’s just an ALP tossfest!!! Unbelievable.

    • Against the Man says:

      09:53am | 04/12/11

      Sunday telegraph today page 5 under the picture of Gillard/Wong:
      ‘Julia Gillard and Penny Wong exchange an awkward hug as a smiling Peter Garrett looks on after yesterday’s decision’

      So Chong old boy the picture was out of context too? Come on after all these months now you are back tracking on your ALP paid job? Tim, Chong knows I know, and he has many (more than 5 at least) to address this point but a paid ALP employee can be someone else’s paid employee. I let this rest because Chong and his ALP mates need a break I can clearly see and because I like TimB. I actually pity the ALPers, and for me to pity you guys show how pathetic you have become. Enjoy your Sunday Chongy smile

    • LJ Dots says:

      02:04pm | 04/12/11

      TChong, it’s not often I agree with your views but I just had to say that at 10.10 I thought you were pretty much spot on.

    • Martin says:

      02:46pm | 04/12/11

      @Nossy.  I’m not feeling left out, I would hardly want to be in your company thanks.  BTW what is it with Centrelink? I know you spend most of your time down there pretending you are looking for work, collecting the dole and generally being a classic ALP dreg, but that doesn’t mean everyone does what you do you know. I would just like to see you strike a blow and actually become gainfully employed instead of posting mindless ALP gibber on here all day.

    • acotrel says:

      06:43am | 04/12/11

      ‘And John Howard won the support of the Australian people several times but people eventually got sick of him. His time was up. And it’s clear now the Liberal Party would’ve been better served if Costello had taken Howard’s job before the 2007 election.’

      HO ! HO ! HO !  what a laugh ?  The guy who lost the cool $40B playing the money market ?  OOPSS ! ! SAWREE !

      Reply

    • TimB says:

      08:27am | 04/12/11

      Yeah….Let’s not look at just how much money Swannie has pissed up against the wall as ’ the world’s best Treasurer’.

      One-eyed is a term that get’s thrown out a lot around here, but Acotrel you’re just completely blind in *both eyes*

    • Alf says:

      08:50am | 04/12/11

      @acotrel. You should look up ‘surplus’ in the dictionary. Tha’s the only place Swan will ever find it…in a dictionary.

    • Ron E Coote says:

      07:45am | 04/12/11

      I think it will come down to her deceitfulness.
      The Carbon Tax LIE, the way policies were promoted as if they were already law, only to fall away on a gentle breeze (Timor, and Malyasian solution.
      The arrogance of the NBN continues under the bizarre (and utterly inept) stewardship of Conroy.
      The BER.
      Pink Batts.
      Billions of taxpayer dollars pissed unflinchingly up against the wall.
      Swanny’s rubbery accounting practices, and defecits delivered with a sense of truimph only Labor can possess.
      The awkward. YES, awkward, use of words. (The woman has a law degree!?)
      Along with awful nasal droning delivery that routinely offends the ear.
      The constant use of banal motherhood sentiments.
      The boat people. FFS, a blind man can see what Labor has done to promote the resumption of this insidious business, but they (again!) have wasted billions of dollars attemting to deny the truth and in the process have recreated the very issue they so mercilessly attacked Howard for trying to fix.
      Craig Thomson!
      Peter Slipper/ Harry Jenkins affair!
      Killing off Rudd, after she rode his coat-tails to the treasury benches.
      Gillard has been front and centre on every single issue.
      Why so unpopular?
      Please.

      Reply

    • nihonin says:

      11:35am | 04/12/11

      I think julia Gillard gets off offending people nossy, take a look at Kevin Rudd, totally ignored by the PM during her opening speech, I have to give it to her for gall.  How could she not remember it was Kevin who gave her the stepping stone to become PM, as he laid on the floor, slowly bleeding out, coughing and gagging, as she stepped on him, while she ascended to what I believe, she feels is her birth right (pinched this one from the Labor rusties).  I think there’ll be ramifications there for her over this, but honestly Kevin Mk II as PM hahaha

    • sandra says:

      12:10pm | 04/12/11

      God I could not have said it better—thanks REC. And the labor wankfest—what a complete joke—all soclal engineering issues now to be shoved in our faces by unionists and socila elitists. ENOUGH!!

    • Alf says:

      08:15am | 04/12/11

      Gillard is a complete failure - she will go down in hostory as the worst Prime Minister in Australian history. She is a liar and manipulator, not a worthy leader.

      Even us Liberal voters had some well earned respect for the likes of Hawke and Keating, but Gillard is not fit to clean their shoes. she is the stained ring around the ALP bathtub that will be left when they finally pull the plug.

      Reply

    • gordie says:

      08:47am | 04/12/11

      its fitting that bathwater goes down sewerage pipes and not stormwater

    • gobsmack says:

      08:22am | 04/12/11

      This article is stretching the meaning of “moment”.

      Reply

    • Chris says:

      08:29am | 04/12/11

      As a voter that has 50+ voting years behind me, I know that support for this prime minister may keep her in power now, but is detrimental to the party, that many of our current younger generations will never vote for again.

      We have seen the political knifing of a prime minister, with speculation now that the right faction is still strong behind the PM and frankly she is screwing it all up. The left is still very Rudd, and well after the political snub the other day there will be a challenge and it will be big.

      I’d like to see the powers of the GG increased to be able to dissolve parliament if this continues to happen, to be able to fire the Prime Minister and the party if they continue to fight, or change promises.

      I personally think promises should be banned from the entire election campaign, it is a joke that we can be swayed one way or another by what someone says without an idea if they can do it.

      As a Vote for the next 50 years I know I will never vote ALP or Greens, as for the independents well probably not.

      After the pay rise they all just got I might start my own party, looks like the perks a great.

      Reply

    • Tom says:

      07:59am | 05/12/11

      Chris, thanks for your humour. 50+ years of voting behind you, odds are there is not too many years of voting ahead of you.

      “I know I will never vote ALP or Greens”, but if you voted for them last time ....

    • Tom says:

      07:59am | 05/12/11

      Chris, thanks for your humour. 50+ years of voting behind you, odds are there is not too many years of voting ahead of you.

      “I know I will never vote ALP or Greens”, but if you voted for them last time ....

    • Anubis says:

      08:34am | 05/12/11

      @ Chris you say “I’d like to see the powers of the GG increased ...”

      Won’t happen not while her son in law is one of the pack of pigs with thweir snouts in the trough. This GG is a cardboard cutout when it comes to doing anything about a Government that has well and truly lost its way. Even if she had a valid Constitutional trigger I doubt very much whether she would use it.

    • mick says:

      09:05am | 04/12/11

      A pity the media’s reporting did not flatline as well. 

      Never has there been such a campaign to discredit anyone in politics as with the current PM.  Love her or hate her one does expect a balance and that the other side of politics gets a bit of reality occasionally.  But Tony “Mr No” Abbott apparently can do no wrong whilst Gillard can do no right. 

      This does not sound like the Australia I grew up in.  It is shameful reporting and manipulation of the electorate.

      Reply

    • Joan says:

      09:52am | 04/12/11

      Ms Tough as Nails Gillard has built up her own portfolio of discredible conduct. Don’t blame the media. The backstabbing of Rudd overnight and her ~No Carbon Tax` already recorded in the annals of Australian poltical history.

    • mick e mause says:

      10:04am | 04/12/11

      oh yes like our marxist ABC the Age and Sydney morning herald are balanced. Newscorp outlets in case you have a short memory backed Rudd in 07. they are not backing this mob all due to incompetence and waste. I mean one of our distinguished minister was in charge of the pink bats fiasco that has cost so far in excess of $2 billion and he is still a minister! A perfect example of the reason responsible media gives this mob its due deserts. And the Slipper event just cements the majority view of Labor.

    • Chris says:

      10:04am | 04/12/11

      “manipulation of the electorate” no one manipulated the electorate more then the Prime Minister, “There will be no carbon tax” lets face it, she lied and she lied so convincingly that when it was so clear and obvious that she had the Australian People Dumped her like she dumped us.

      >“But Tony “Mr No” Abbott apparently can do no wrong whilst Gillard can do no right”

      He can do no right also, i don’t think abbot is the man to lead us and i too would think a challenge soon is in the wings, specially if kay rudd rolls the PM.

      As a voter I am sick of political parties, because most parties believe it is a manadate to screw this country over with their parties wants and needs, who gives a stuff about the people. The current stucture needs to change, and fast, the people are so poorly represented in parliment, very few local members actually live in their electorate, they don’t walk the streets unless an election is in the wind.

      TOTAL CHANGE IS ALL WE CAN DO TO FIX THIS COUNTRY NOW!

    • nossy says:

      11:51am | 04/12/11

      @Chris a hankie and a glass of water for poor Chrissy! hhahahahah

    • sandra says:

      12:19pm | 04/12/11

      oh Mick tears are running down my back!!!! But for you!!!!!—- you are obviously deaf and blind and some leftie is feeding you lies—the media almost en masse are determined to bring down Abbott and keep beloved Gillard and labor in power. That Abbott is still standing is a credit to his stamina and his belief in what he is doing, The media fawn all over Gillard because they are scared wh will get them the sack as she has done already to three of the best.

    • Against the Man says:

      12:29pm | 04/12/11

      Think about this mick. If Gillard has done no wrong there would be nothing bad to report. So her bad poll results are also because of the media or her own wrong doing? Did she trip and accidentally plunge a knife in Rudd’s back? Did she have head trauma that caused her to lose her LLB knowledge when it came to the legal details in refugee policy? Gillard and the ALP are finished and they have no one to blame but themselves.

      BTW Gillard has said NO to gay marriage is she now Miss No or do bias people like you only apply it to the Coalition?

    • TChong says:

      09:46am | 04/12/11

      All Punchers
      Young Jim Pattinson- 3 wickets first over !!!!!!!!
      4 for..,
      The lads a legend. !!!

      Reply

    • chris says:

      10:39am | 04/12/11

      far more succsessful then the PM.

    • nihonin says:

      11:47am | 04/12/11

      Indeed he’s career is off to a flying start TChong.

    • julian thomas says:

      03:05pm | 04/12/11

      is there was a disease that attacked only lawyers and real estate agents the liberals would get less votes than the eros party cause it would have about 2 or 3 representatives only, seriously these fools think they have the license to print money i.e.. is justice just when the case goes to the highest bidder

      Reply

    • Kurisu Sonsaku says:

      05:56pm | 04/12/11

      Tony Abbott isn’t just in your head schoolboy, he’s moved in and built a castle.

      hhhhhahahahahahahahahahahahahhaha

    • Martin says:

      07:31pm | 04/12/11

      Incredibly, there’s only been one person in Australia less popular this year than the Prime Minister. Tony Abbott.

      Reply

    • Dr Jake says:

      07:12am | 05/12/11

      Bewtively said, Mardy. Take out Jules and Tone gets another bunch of thinking votes.  Nobody believes anything SHE says. Everybody believes Tone but pretends they don’t. Get back in line there, sonny boy.

      Reply

    • Skrilah says:

      02:30pm | 31/05/12

      I do find this a bit of self serving nseonnse.1. Rudd had worked himself into a psychological state andOh brother, arm chair psychologist making a diagnosis more to do with either the MSM meme, Labor hack meme after the knifing or simply a existing prejudice.2. The cabinet was falling apart — Rudd had no political capital left mainly becauseRubbish. Cabinet was cabinet and the only difficulty it had was Swan/Gillard on the ETS shelving and their immediately leaking it to the media. The problem’ with cabinet was Rudd’s refusal to be a factional hack and Gillard’s desire to white ant for his job.3. He’d alienated himself from the ALP factions. Which is, fundamentally, the internal structure of the ALP.He was never in with factions from the beginning. One can probably surmise that from the day they made him LOTO they had in the back of their minds to replace at the first opportunity should he become PM. Which they did.4. Rudd’s top-down leadership style is not compatible with social-democratic values. Well, just a nothing comment. Labor spent more than a decade in opposition because of its toxic factionalism. Rudd was outside most of that and succeeded and probably was most popular with the public because of the freedom he had from this debilitating poison, for a time. Again how much of this allegation is simple MSM and Labor hack meme. Much of it I would guess.

      Reply
 
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