Gay marriage is supported by a majority of Australians. At least that’s what the few published opinion polls on the issue would suggest.
The most recent poll, in October of this year, was commissioned by a pro-gay marriage lobby group called Australian Marriage Equality. But it was conducted by the independent polling firm Galaxy, which since 2004 has one of the best records at picking federal and state election results. With a solid sample of 1050 respondents, the Galaxy survey found that 62 per cent of Australians did not have a problem with the idea of same-sex marriage.
The result was in keeping with other recent polls which have shown either a narrow or comfortable majority of people supports gay marriage. A different question, however, is whether people wanted the Gillard Government to act as a matter of urgency to legalise gay marriage.
I would suspect you would get a different answer from many respondents. In the current climate, I would suspect that you would get a hostile answer from many respondents.
The answer would probably run along these lines: “So they can’t protect our borders and they can’t stop the banks ripping us off and they can’t do anything about our power bills but at least they’re going to let blokes get married.”
In the broader political sense, it is hard to imagine a more left-field, down the order issue than same-sex unions. The number of people affected by the issue is small. That of itself should not be a reason to do nothing. But given the day-to-day domestic problems the Gillard Government has, many of them going to the fundamental question of the cost of living, it’s debatable whether Labor has the luxury of pursuing this issue during this difficult term.
For every person within the ALP who has had a sudden conversion to the gay marriage cause, there are others wondering whether the party risks marginalising itself by pursuing the issue at a time when, by way of understatement, it is not without its problems.
There’s a casual view in some sections of the party that the only people who would be outraged by gay marriage are all rusted-on Liberal enthusiasts who would only ever vote for Tony Abbott anyway.
This flawed analysis not only ignores the many thousands of Catholics who traditionally back the ALP. It also dismisses the views of those voters in marginal seats who might not be prejudiced, but simply want their government to be focussed on issues which affect their lives.
Indeed, it also dismisses the views of those voters in regional areas and poorer suburbs who are prejudiced. Another poll published yesterday showed that in 10 of the nation’s federal electorates, three of them held by the ALP, around 40 per cent of all voters agreed with the fairly unpleasant assertion that “homosexuality is immoral”. Conversely, in 10 of the most affluent inner-city electorates, the same assertion was supported by around 15 per cent of people.
Given these sorts of stats, the tactical question for Labor is this: is it more important to win back left-leaning voters in the inner cities who have drifted the Greens, or to stop swinging voters in heartland seats from switching to the Coalition?
The latter scenario would seem to be a much, much bigger threat to the ALP.
The Gillard Government is already being pulled in different ideological directions and having its agenda set for it by others as a result of the weird circumstances by which it clung to power.
The Prime Minister is walking a tightrope where she has to placate both the rural independents and inner-city Greens. If she reverses her stand on this issue and allows a conscience vote, as many within the party are urging her to do, she will look even weaker. Not only will she look weaker, she’ll end up pursuing an issue which many voters regard as an irrelevance.
It is difficult to work out the logic behind the likes of NSW Right powerbroker Mark Arbib in suddenly championing this issue. My personal view is that it’s got nothing to do with politics and is more about being liked. Arbib is one of the most genial and easy-going people in politics but out there in voter-land he’s regarded as a flint-hearted faceless executioner who has Kevin Rudd’s blood on his hands. His conversion to the cause is I suspect more about a very human desire not to be hated by absolutely everybody.
The irony is that those, such as Arbib, who are now pushing the issue could have the undesired effect – presuming it’s undesired that is – of setting Julia Gillard on a deeply unpopular political course.
There’s a script written for her already and it was written by Kevin Rudd. Just as Kevin Rudd was “proud of the fact” that he’d said sorry to the stolen generation and, ummmmm, a couple of other things, Ms Gillard could find herself giving a similarly regretful one-term goodbye speech where the symbolic gesture of legalising gay marriage is the one thing she actually managed to do this term.
In addition of course to making way for a prime minister who makes the Pope look progressive on a number of issues.
Facebook Recommendations
Read all about it
Punch live
Up to the minute Twitter chatter
RT @popculturechris: Meanwhile, Gotye holds no.1 for a sixth massive week in the US - "that" song has now sold over 4 million copies there.
I like how a tip erodes so only you can use it MT “@paulwiggins: BBC News - Why are fountain pen sales rising? http://t.co/0hk2MRtf”
Recent posts
The latest and greatest
Protecting the Barrier Reef is the Fin end of the wedge
When you take on a job like being Environment Minister there’s some hits you can see coming. …
ICB: Is white bread the worst thing since sliced bread?
Welcome to this week’s I Call Bullshit column. It’s a regular column that looks at skulduggery…
Sometimes, you’ve just got to stick it to the bloody ref
We are taught early in life that we should not question authority. We must listen to our parents, our…
Nosebleed Section
choice ringside rantings
From: They must pay for one’s bitter disappointments
Michael S says:
"A teacher at Geelong Grammar had criticised her for using words that were too long, which had left her confused and had made her doubt her ability to write essays. She became ''quite distressed'' when her English marks began to fall." I can sympathise. My scholastic mentors conveyed to me a causal relationship… [read more]From: Welfare for breeders is a bonus for everyone
Change Up! says:
I have no problem paying my taxes. As a single, childless person on a very decent income, I can afford it and not have my life severely altered. Plus I understand that my taxes paying for things like schools, childcare and infrastructure is ultimately a good thing. A better community is better for me… [read more]Gentle jabs to the ribs
They must pay for one’s bitter disappointments
A private school girl’s family is sueing her elite, extremely expensive private school for not… Read more
Most commented