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11 Sep 05:40am

Filed under: Gfc, Julia Gillard, Unemployment

Julia Gillard’s week got a lot better just before lunch time yesterday with the announcement the latest jobs figures had held steady.

Julia Gillard delivers kind of, sort of, good news yesterday

The general consensus was the data saved her from the hammering she’s been getting in Question Time over the dodgy mess the administration of the Building the Education Revolution plan has turned out to be.

And yes our jobless figures look pretty flash compared with the rest of the world. But the Government shouldn’t be jumping up and down just yet - and to her credit Gillard resisted the urge.

The Deputy Prime Minister has been looking a bit less than spectacular this week as her multiple portfolio responsibilities look like they’re starting to bite.

Her parliamentary sparring partner Christopher Pyne has delighted in prefacing each and every question to Gillard with her full title: Deputy Prime Minister, Minister for Employment and Workplace Relations; Minister for Education; Minister for Social Inclusion… It’s a mouthful alright.

The schools stimulus spending is starting to get embarrassing - to the point where the sensible thing to do appears to be to appoint the P&C of the Abbortsford Public School special administrators of the massive program, as they seem to be the only ones demanding the $2.5 billion be spent wisely.

So Gillard was certainly looked relieved when she stepped into the Blue Room at 12.40pm yesterday to respond to the jobs data. More relieved, I guess, than the nearly 30,000 people who’s jobs went from full time to part time, and the 0.3 per cent of people who just gave up altogether and dropped out of the jobs race.

There were 4 million hours less worked in the past month - all of which points to a huge number of people who are keeping a hawk-like eye on the Reserve Bank board.

See the longer the Government keeps the stimulus spending up, and getting financial data that on the face of it looks like a positive for their economic reputation, the more likely rates will go up.

While people might be pretty happy right now with the Julia Gillard memorial school hall fund (as the Opposition delight in calling it), when their monthly mortgage payments start to go up as their monthly pay starts to come down it might not be such a pretty picture for the government.

On Wednesday night the Senate also rejected the Government’s effort to means test the 30 per cent private health insurance rebate. While the rebate is indeed a very blunt policy instrument, the removal of it will also prove to be blunt. Tens of thousands of households will either have to stump up hundreds of dollars more per year for their private health insurance, or drop out, placing massive pressures on the public system.

The defeat of the Bill gives the Government a potential election trigger, but the sitting schedule dictates they couldn’t pull that trigger until next year anyway.

So it’s a safe bet there’ll be a rates rise before the next Federal Election.

Good news now may not be good news in the second half of next year. And the Opposition’s calls for the stimulus to be reigned in might not look so out of whack with the electorate the further we get into recovery.

Gillard’s tough week ended a little brighter than it might have. But it shouldn’t be underestimated just how precarious the Government’s high wire act will have to be over the next 12 months.

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14 comments

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- Daniel says:
  
  10:26am | 11/09/09
  
  You have to love this woman but that 100 year old lady voice is a bit grating.
  
  Reply
- pc says:
  
  10:32am | 11/09/09
  
  “Prophet!” said I, “thing of evil - prophet still,
  if bird or devil!
  By that heaven that bends aboves us - by that
  god we both adore
  Tell this soul with sorrow laden if, within the
  distant aidenn
  It shall clasp a sainted maiden whom the angels name Lenore -
  Clasp a rare and radiant maiden whom the
  angels name lenore
  Quoth the raven “Nevermore”
  
  Arent you getting tired of cranking the julia yank guys? Do you draw straws to decide who’s going to write that days. Its driven me to Poe. Yes hidden employment has risen - its one of the reasons it going to be DIFFICULT, to raise rates. Though if that does happen, it should mean employment is improving and people are probably going to decide having a job is a good thing. If you want an analysis of this governments perfomance try the G20. What about the complete failure of the opposition, eg Chris Pyne, who despite his best efforts to de - MINCIFY himself his only message is “We’re the opposition. How can we be expected to know how to govern.” Which jut goes to show you can take the boy out of the mince but not the mince out of the boy.
  
  Policy is the point, isnt it? Or in this case alternative policy. The opposition can only heckle and twitter. The only member of the oppoosition that is taking their job seriously is People Skills Abbot - he writes books and tries to advocate ideas, and then makes a complete idiot of himself on the news suggesting the Julia had worn a “shit eating grin.” Please, how are we meant to take these jokers serously if they dont take themselves seriously. If the Liberals looked in the mirror, they would see clowns reflected back.
  
  Reply
- Joel B1 says:
  
  10:32am | 11/09/09
  
  I love the governments, oh so very Labor, argument that because other countries are continuing to through cash at this problem so should we.
  It’s very “one-socialist-size-fits-all” and totally wrong.
  
  Rudd and Gillard’s “me-tooism” shows an inexperience that is dangerous.
  
  Reply
- John A Neve says:
  
  11:07am | 11/09/09
  
  Tory,
  We all know the job figures are a farce. People don’t work for the fun of it, they work to live. Therefor any one earning less than the basic wage is in fact unemployed. No one in their right mind would suggest you can live on two or three hundred dollars per week.
  Australia’s real unemployment figure is around 20% and any thinking person knows this is true.
  
  Reply
- Mark B says:
  
  12:18pm | 11/09/09
  
  I watched QT yesterday and if the Opposition think their week of unconstructive sniping has progressed them on the road back to Government then it wasn’t obvious to me. They look and act like a schoolboy debating team. And the Government looks like it has adopted the policy of never give a mug a break. Ms Gillard appeared pretty relaxed to me and her responses reasonable under the circumstances, especially the trees in Unley. Dear oh Dear.
  
  Reply
- anonymous says:
  
  12:42pm | 11/09/09
  
  People can’t live on a part time job. Gillard looked rattled at her press conference yesterday. I think they know we are stuffed but don’t want to say it. John A Neve, I agree with you. And there are so many people who are not working but want to, yet they aren’t receiving benefits for whatever reason. Our neighbour lost his finance job in Febuary and now his wife (who was on maternity leave) is looking for part time secretary work, which won’t even cover their mortgage. Unemployment has affected us personally. You literally see your lifestyle eroding by the week, and I’m not talking about luxuries either- even things like new shoes are completely out of reach. You start to feel sub human. I need a dentist, I may as well wish for a trip to the moon. We have reached the point of hard decisions. How many people have decided to do what we’re doing, for example, and sell up our house to get rid of debts before we default..it’s not exactly a forced sale but it’s not obviously our first choice. We’d rather have work that enables us to meet our commitments but we can’t hang on any longer. My husband got to the point where he was eligible to apply for part of his super, the person he spoke to at APRA said they had never processed so many early release of benefits claims as now. Someone we know who volunteers at a major charity told us they can’t keep up and it’s the former middle class people seeking help. I know alot of people feel quite let down by the governments stimulus packages, any cash we got went to paying off debts that had mounted up while we hadn’t had any income. What we needed was jobs! It seems the main beneficiaries of the stimulus was the construction industry, so all the tradies (who have had a pretty good run over the past decade already), are okay but those of us in so called ‘white collar’ jobs feel let down. My point is there are a lot of people hanging on by the skin of their teeth at the moment and I reckon we will see a lot of family homes come up for sale in the new year. There are already 55,000 people on mortgage repayment ‘holidays’ , not including the CBA customers or those still with non-bank lenders. So the interest on thier loans is still mounting up. They can’t hold on forever, next year will be even worse than this one. I am so grateful that we have super to access and an asset we can sell, I feel so sorry for the people who don’t have those options, what will they do?
  
  Reply
- pc says:
  
  01:30pm | 11/09/09
  
  Anonymous, Thankyou for the sincere and heartfelt contribution. I think a lot of people have missed out on the stimulus and its a real arguemnent for more, isnt it? Lets hope the Ruddbott continues to make decsions that are good for australians - imagine how much worse it would be if the liberals had been in government and made a political decision not to spend in our hour of need?
  
  Reply
- Jim says:
  
  02:31pm | 11/09/09
  
  hey pc nice spin, ruddy wasn’t thinking about the economy he was buying votes as per usual. how do you know what a liberal govt would or would not do? they would have spent the money wisely. they did it for the last 10 years while they were in govt. is ruddy manageing the economy, health, unemployment and infrastructure well? he wants you to think he is but the smart people know otherwise. The sad fact is that we are stuffed.
  
  Reply
- Georgia says:
  
  02:33pm | 11/09/09
  
  These employment figures are rubbish. I can guarantee that there are thousands of unemployed persons especially over the age of say, 50, who are desperate to find employment but do not register with Centrelink as they are or will be self funded retirees. It makes me sick…they work so hard all their lives to have a nest egg in their old age, but are forced to use up their own savings to live and cannot or will not get any assistance to find suitable employment because they are over the hill. They have so much to offer employers…skills and experience,but they are not wanted!
  
  Reply
- Margaret Gray says:
  
  02:42pm | 11/09/09
  
  “...I think a lot of people have missed out on the stimulus…”
  
  What with more than 35% of Australians citing the Federal government as their main source of income why not have another handout.
  
  “...and its a real arguemnent (sic) for more, isnt it?...”
  
  Yes, yes of course it is.
  
  As long as there is a Labor government is in power it’ll never have to be paid back.
  
  Hooray!
  
  That kind of economic heavy-lifting is only capable from one side of politics; those who understand the money flow…Conservatives.
  
  Reply
- Pat says:
  
  04:40pm | 11/09/09
  
  Interest rates where lowered to their current levels as a stimulus measure.
  
  So logically, if they where to rise, would this not be a withdrawel of stimulus, and as that is what the opposition has been arguing for, would they not be delighted if this where to happen?
  
  Reply
- pc says:
  
  04:48pm | 11/09/09
  
  “Nevermore. Nevermore.”
  Oh. A raven
  “Nevermore. Nevermore.”
  A raven sat above my bust of pallas, on my chamber door
  “Nevermore.Nevermore.”
  “Doubtless” said I. “What it utters is its only stock and store.”
  Much like malcom and his dream of government
  “Nevermore. Nevermore.”
  Fancy unto fancy, thinking what this ominous bird of yore -
  What this grim, ungainly, ghostly gaunt and ominous bird of yore
  meant in croking “nevermore”.
  
  What that bird of yore meant Jim, “how do you know what a liberal govt would or would not do?” is that the Liberal Party dont know what they will or wont do. The Ruddbott has made a deal with australians - he’ll take care of us if we support each other - all you do is heckle “nevermore.” So long as you dont offer an alternative narrative - or at least one that is competitive - there is little else for you do to do. And Margaret, the heavy lifting wasnt apparent when the libs vote against the stimulus, instead you went the cheap root - utegate - and where did that get you? “Nevermore.”
  
  Reply
- John A Neve says:
  
  05:44pm | 11/09/09
  
  In response to Jim @ 1331hrs.
  You are right we do not know what the coalition would have done in the same situation. But neither do you! Based on all I’ve read, Malcolm would have done much the same, but to a lesser degree.
  The reality, is most Australians voted for Labor, accept the fact and move on. The rest is just supposition
  
  Reply
- Richard of brissy says:
  
  08:19pm | 11/09/09
  
  Guys Guys Guys, all this natter. Bottom line there was a POT OF MONEY left by the Libs and the Labour party + union party spent Millions to get elected and get their noses in the trough. Now they are just distributing the money to all their friends and when they have spent it, they will SPIN a sorry tale to the mugs (musrooms) with the line there is no opposition 2) we are here for the working Families etc etc—and laugh all the way to the bank.
  Did anybody see the Labour Party cash fund on TV last nite that was spent to get Anna Bligh re-elected, so she could borrow $85Million to pay back the union HACKS in SPADES!!!
  Cheers
  
  Reply