Abbott’s challenge now is to renew the Liberal Party

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Filed under: Liberal Leadership, Politics, Polls, Tony Abbott

GetUp’s latest poll has found the public are hoping Tony Abbott will take the party down a progressive path.

The Australian's Peter Nicholson

It’s a big year for the Liberal Party of Australia. One hundred years ago, the Protectionist and Free Trade parties combined to offer voters an alternative to the Labor party.

Oppositions can be great force within our democracy. They can be the drivers of accountability and transparency, of new thinking and ambitious policy. And in a democracy where our major parties fight over just a small subset of the population (swinging voters), their power in influencing the Government of the day is certainly present.

Since the Australian public gave the Howard Government the boot many in the Coalition have been doing some soul searching. Tony Abbott has committed his summer to developing his party’s policies in the lead up to next year’s election campaign.

So what should he be working on?

In the recent GetUp poll conducted by EMC, one of the first polls since Abbott’s ascendancy to the leadership, GetUp has found first and foremost that people’s strongest desire of Abbott’s leadership is that he will take action on climate change.

We know that at the moment the public are unsure about who to trust on climate change. As Peter Lewis writes in his piece on The Punch today, the winner in a 3 horse race on who to trust (between the ALP, the Greens and the Coalition) is a 4th horse from the outside: “don’t know”.

And so Tony Abbott’s task over the summer is clear. He must convert the ‘don’t know’ voters. And converting the ‘don’t know’ voters means adopting a progressive approach to climate action.

Here’s why.

64% of respondents in our latest EMC poll believe that Tony Abbott should support action on climate change. And what kind of action? Well the majority of Australians (52%) still believe an emissions trading scheme is the way to go.

And the demands of the Australian public for a more progressive agenda from the Liberal party continue on issues like workers rights and a woman’s right to chose.

A whopping 73% of Australians feel that Tony Abbott should not interfere with a woman’s right to chose to have an abortion.

And less then one in five Australians think that Tony Abbott has truly walked away from his support of WorkChoices – the majority clearly wanting him to.

The Liberal party, like all political parties, has those on the inside who are trying to modernise the party, and those who are not. As Queensland Liberal Senator George Brandis said in his 2009 Deakin lecture, “those who are important figures in the defeat of Government will rejoin that we must defend our legacy”.

And so Tony Abbott has a choice ahead of him. Will he defend the former Coalition Government’s inaction on climate change or adopt a modern, realistic approach to the need for ambitious action? Will he defend the architecture behind work choices while abandoning it in name, or will he truly accept that the Australian public want workers protected? Will he interfere with the rights of women in making their own medicinal choices, or will he be stuck in the vices of his past beliefs?

And in taking these policy positions into some thoughts about the overall direction of the Liberal party, one thing becomes very clear. The battle that underscores the challenge the party faces is whether or not to be a progressive party that differentiates itself with Labor on the basis of it’s definition of liberalism (as a concept centered on the rights of individuals), or whether it chooses to differentiate itself from Labor with a Howard-like conservative agenda.

Tony Abbott should make no mistake that Howard conservatism will not work. As Senator Brandis pointed out in his instructive Deakin lecture, conservatism, by its very nature, “cannot offer an alternative to the direction in which we are moving.”

While Tony Abbott has chosen to include in his shadow cabinet voices like those of Christopher Pyne and Joe Hockey, this must not be a token gesture. His electoral success relies on his ability to convince the Australian public that he is a modern leader with a progressive approach to public policy.

The opportunities for adopting a progressive approach are obvious, and profound.

Mr Abbott’s capacity to grasp these opportunities does have an expiry date though. In the next few months, while his honeymoon period as Opposition leader continues, we will be able to test his willingness to modernize his party by analysing his policies on key issues like climate change, workers rights and a woman’s right to chose.

Question: Do you agree or disagree with the following statements about the new Opposition Leader Tony Abbott?

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23 comments

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- Luke says:
  
  07:23am | 08/12/09
  
  I think it’s a bit early to tell, he hasn’t been Leader for a week. I notice there are no questions about Health, Border Protection, Aboriginal Housing, Increased Population or Debt.
  
  Reply
- Toddzilla says:
  
  07:55am | 08/12/09
  
  As soon as GetUp! was mentioned I knew I need not read anymore because they are a bunch of lunatics and anyone stupid enough to invoke them deserves nothing more than scorn.
  
  Reply
monkeytypist says:

10:39am | 08/12/09

Oh wow, touche. What a brilliant demolition of the reasoned propositions put forward in this piece. “Your argument must be invalid because I have my fingers in my ears”. QED. Is this “consultation, Abbot style?”
papachango says:

11:32am | 08/12/09

It was crudely put, but Toddzilla has a point. GetUp!, while technically non-partisan, is overwhelmingly left-wing, and apart from their admirable stance against Internet censorship, they are also generally pro government regulation and intervention. So naturally their subscribers are going to be anti-Tony Abbott, a right-wing conservative and economic liberal. In statistics it’s called selection bias.
Realist says:

12:10pm | 08/12/09

There poll was commissioned by a third party… just like the KRudd focus groups! Get a grip GetUP!!

Question:
“Tony Abbott supported WorkChoices and will bring the policy back.”
-UMMMM, that really is two questions, did he support it? How will he bring it back? Is it his policy now? A poorly worded question used as a scare tactic by a bunch of loon demographers.
- AFR says:
  
  08:21am | 08/12/09
  
  Of course you don’t have to read it, just don’t comment afterwards about how you didn’t.
  
  Reply
- Eric says:
  
  08:39am | 08/12/09
  
  Tony Abbott would be wise to follow the advice of a far-left lobby group that wants to see him defeated.
  
  Not.
  
  Reply
- Drew(Darlinghurst) says:
  
  09:31am | 08/12/09
  
  TONY ABBOTT and his new shadow frontbench…....reminds me of a Peter Allen song
  
  “everything old is new again”
  
  NB: YOU CANT GO FORWARD BY LOOKING TO THE PAST.
  
  Reply
Macca says:

12:31pm | 08/12/09

This would be the advice of a man who voted for a labour party that copied 75% of the Coalition’s policies before the last election.
- Sherlock says:
  
  09:42am | 08/12/09
  
  Is this some sort of joke?
  
  GetUp is a lunatic left wing lobby group yet you’re suggesting the Liberals should take advice off them.
  
  I don’t think so.
  
  Reply
- Ben says:
  
  10:11am | 08/12/09
  
  GetUp = a politically and socially left-wing lobby group. Among their “achievements”: “bringing David Hicks home” and “continued campaigning for equal rights for same-sex couples.” (their website FAQ) Just so we know where Simon’s coming from—and it’s not mainstream Australia.
  
  Reply
- AdamC says:
  
  10:17am | 08/12/09
  
  Were the polls you cite here, Simon, actual random-sample survey results or simply the views of the GetUp! mailing list?
  
  I am assuming it is the latter. If so, I cannot help but endorse the views of the above commenters. Really, what can anti-Coalition left-wingers really teach Tony Abbott?
  
  Much better to address this article to Bob Brown. But then, he seems to be in furious agreement with these sentiments anyway, and it didn’t help his party in Higgins or Bradfield.
  
  Reply
- Chris says:
  
  10:36am | 08/12/09
  
  Getup cares about Abbotts chances. Yeah right. Give up the Apolitical charade. When a former getup spokesman goes on to be Rudd staffer your credability is in tatters. When your boards is all union/Alp affiliates your credability is in tatters.
  Still waiting for Stern Hu to get the same help David Hicks got. Oh thats right Stern Hu wasnt caught fighting along side terrorists.
  Ive said it before and Ill say it again you are not fooling anyone.
  
  Reply
- Barry says:
  
  10:49am | 08/12/09
  
  While I’m not an Abbott supporter, I think that I would treat any polling from GetUp! a bit carefully. Somehow I just don’t imagine that its conducted in the most objective of methods. But given who has been announced in the new coalition front bench, I think the that “renewal” of the party will be a long stretch for Abbott to achieve. I think that “regression” would be much more appropriate. And given that he has stated that he will be taking the Benjamin Disraeli approach to oppossition - that the role of opposition is simply to oppose - trying to convince voters that he is fit to lead the government will be an uphill battle. Just look at how much good that tactic did for Beazley. People want constructive, pragmatic opposition that works for good policy outcomes, not just its own political tactics. But with members from the party’s hard right faction about to reclaim their seats on the front bench from their purged moderate counterparts, that is something that we are very unlikely to see anytime soon.
  
  Reply
- ChrisG says:
  
  11:25am | 08/12/09
  
  Here’s three alternative poll questions, and my guess is that the outome would be different to the GetUp version of a push poll. Do you agree that:
  
  Tony Abbott will be less interested in symbolism and more interested in practical climate strategies for Australia
  
  - Tony Abbott, like Kevin Rudd, has a proven track recordn of respecting the conscience vote approach to matters such as abortion and will continue to do so
  
  - Tony Abbott has the brains and courage to get the balance right between resurgent union power and individual workers’ rights
  
  If you want an insight into Mr Sheik’s bias and ideological confusion, note how he wants Tony Abbott to base the Liberal party on “the rights of individuals” but doesn’t want him to move to any industrial relations policy that provides for the opportunity for individually negotiated agreements.
  
  Final point: the ‘public’ have no idea what ‘progressive’ means, and they certainly have no idea what the ETS is, how it works and whether it meets any such definition
  
  Reply
papachango says:

12:23pm | 08/12/09

Good points. It’s interesting that the both the left and the right go on about individual rights, but only for causes that suit their ideology.

Abbott completely throws individual rights out the window when it comes to abortion, stem cell research, same-sex couples and euthanasia.

GetUp!, while they make a big fuss of (admittedly admirably) sticking up for individual rights of same-sex couples, asylum seekers and Internet users, are more than happy to endorse many socialist and/or nanny state policies that give government unprecendented power over individual liberty and free choice, in the name of ‘saving the planet’ , ‘protecting’ us from capitalism, massively interfering with employers’ ability to hire and fire, removing right of individuals to own firearms, etc.

I would like to see an issues-based, grassroots lobby group like GetUp!, but which, rather than being left or right wing, <u>consistently</u> stands for maximum indivdual rights and opposition to the nanny state, whether it’s gay rights, euthanasia, anti-censorship, gun ownership, workplace flexibility or whatever. I’d call it something like BackOff!

As for ‘progressive’, politically it is rather meaningless. I like to point out to lefty comrades that the two most progressive leaders of the modern era were Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher. Guaranteed to get them choking on their soy chai lattes!
- Lucie says:
  
  12:27pm | 08/12/09
  
  I’m waiting for the barage of articles to come out once Abbott announces his new front bench. They will no doubt pick each and every one of them to pieces for the next week or so.
  
  Reply
- Southernlight says:
  
  12:34pm | 08/12/09
  
  I never read a more ridiculous piece in this site….eheheeheh
  Tony Abbott is a very smart, reliable, known and it appears that the public wants him….else why all the Headlines in this blog are currently about Abbott…Nobody wants to know about Krudd…
  But the far left should not think it can “manhandle” Abbott…
  He is just too smart for your strategies….....
  
  Reply
- Simon says:
  
  07:59pm | 08/12/09
  
  A quick note on methodology. This was a standard survey done through EMC not a poll of GetUp members.
  
  The data gathered is from a weekly online omnibus conducted by Your Source. Your Source is an Australian social and market research company specializing in recruitment, field research, data gathering and data analysis. Your Source holds Interviewer Quality Control Australia (IQCA) accreditation, Association Market and Social Research Organisations (AMSRO) membership and World Association of Opinion and Marketing Research Professionals (ESOMAR) membership. Senior Your Source staff hold Australian Market and Social Research Society (AMSRS) membership and are bound by professional codes of behavior.
  
  Essential Research has been utilizing the Your Source online panel to conduct research on a week by week basis since the 19th of November 2007.
  
  Your Source has a self managed consumer online panel of 109 500. The majority of panel members have been recruited using off line methodologies, effectively ruling out concerns associated with online self selection. Your Source has validation methods in place that prevent panelist over use and ensure member authenticity. Your Source randomly selects 18+ males and females (with the aim of targeting 50/50 males/females) from its Australia wide panel. An invitation is sent out to approximately 7000 – 8000 of their panel members. The response rate varies each week, but usually delivers 1000 + responses. The Your Source online omnibus is live from the Tuesday night of each week and closed on the following Sunday. Incentives are offered to participants in the form of points (referred to as ‘Zoints’).
  
  EMC uses the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) software to analyse the data. The data is weighted against Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data.
  
  This weighting, done by all credible polling companies, ensures consistency in our ability to compare these poll results with those done by other organisations.
  
  Reply
- Dallas Beaufort says:
  
  09:12pm | 08/12/09
  
  This polling and resulting populist copy is based only on idealism and not on the understanding that, everyone understands the emissions trading scheme and the consequential taxation and cost of living effects.
  
  Reply
- John of Perth says:
  
  10:45pm | 08/12/09
  
  With his new shadow ministry Tony has shown that he is doing politics for his personal ego.
  This is a joke, he take us back to black and white TV, and time to dust off rosary beads.
  I think they are the Mad Team,I hoped for fun but this is beyond my expectations.
  I wander what he has between those ears, a black hole?
  Shell we start biding how long before we get new “Leader”
  
  Reply
- Matt says:
  
  12:11am | 09/12/09
  
  When you post polling data can you link to your methodology? It (obviously) makes a big difference to how readers treat your analysis.
  
  Reply
- joe says:
  
  12:27am | 09/12/09
  
  “One Nation poll says public want Rudd to take the part to the extreme right” - thats about as believable as listening to a Getup poll on such topics. Why do the media give this Labor left front group any airtime?
  
  Lined up your job with Rudd yet? The last guy to run getup works for Rudd now doesn’t he. Or did he quit like the other half of Rudd’s staff so far do to the mean boss.
  
  Reply