As Campbell Newman yesterday outlined one of the more goofy political strategies Australia has seen, there was one stark impression: The bloke himself didn’t come across as goofy.

Cartoon: Sean Leahy

Newman, the Lord Mayor of Brisbane, was explaining to reporters how he planned to be the Liberal National Party (LNP) State Opposition Leader without having to actually be in the Queensland Parliament.

In about a year’s time he would run for a seat Labor has held for 22 years, and in the meantime a surrogate elected last night would be the official Opposition Leader. But actually, the Opposition Leader would be Campbell Newman.

Ultimately, his plan is for him to become Premier, replacing Labor’s Anna Bligh, at the election expected early next year. It seemed so easy, so seamless.

Queensland, my home state, has produced some ripper candidates, not excluding Pauline Hanson.

For example, there was the Joh for PM campaign to elevate Premier Bjelke-Petersen even though he wasn’t in Federal Parliament. But at least he was in somebody’s Parliament.

There have been cases of state leaders and one national leader holding their positions while not in Parliament. This was during the time it took them to transit from an Upper House to a Lower House—Neville Wran and Barrie Unsworth in NSW, and John Gorton federally.

But again, at least they were in a Parliament in the first place. That has been something of a basic requirement when you want to perform as a parliamentary leader. Campbell Newman is in local government.

However, a key factor is that Brisbane City Council is not some dinky municipal cul-de-sac. It is the biggest metropolitan council in the nation and encloses a population of about two million, operating assets worth about $13 billion with an annual budget of $1.6 billion.

It is a state within a state, and the Lord Mayor has a position which has almost the same elevation as the Premier. Newman already has close to parity with Bligh.

The same could not be said for the men he believes he has replaced, former LNP leader John-Paul Langbroek and his deputy Lawrence Springborg. (Another sign that the Newman plan was not as goofy as it looked was the meek departure of these two men.)

Anna Bligh was given high marks for her handling of the Queensland floods; so was Newman during the terrible Brisbane end of the deluge. Bligh is deeply involved in the state’s reconstruction; so is Newman.

And Newman is putting himself on the line. He isn’t trying to sneak into Parliament via a safe seat, and he will quit his lord mayoral job once he gets preselection for Ashgrove.

There are two large flaws in the Newman master plan.

The first is that Anna Bligh might put off an election for as long as possible so that the confusion of two Opposition Leaders—one real, the other pretend—could be compounded.

The second is that Brisbane voters like keeping their successful Lord Mayors.

Brisbane mayors have become significant, even substantial, names on the national stage.

The late Clem Jones, Labor for 14 years to 1975, brought sewers to houses and paved neglected streets, and created parklands. In 1974 he put together the bid which won Brisbane the 1982 Commonwealth Games. He topped that by also working as curator at the Brisbane Cricket Ground (The ‘Gabba).

However, when Clem ran for a state seat in 1972 he was rejected by voters. The official explanation was that the public wanted him to stay on as Lord Mayor.

He ran for a federal seat in 1974 and was again rebuffed, apparently for the same reason.

That might happen to Newman. The voters might insist he finish his work at the local council rather than enter state Parliament.

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    • The Black Knight says:

      06:01am | 23/03/11

      In the 2007 election the ALP had a field day over leadership issues within the Coalition.

      The QLP ALP are going to do the same field day. If the Coalition win the next election but Campbell Newman doesn’t win in Ashgrove.

      Who will be Premier?

    • Richard says:

      08:13am | 23/03/11

      The situation you asked about (if the LNP win a majority of seat but Campbell Newman doesn’t win in Ashgrove) does happen regularly in Canada.

      This those instances, what has happened is a back-bencher in a safe seat resigns, triggering a by-election at which the Premier stands as the candidate.

      In Canadian convention, the opposition typically doesn’t even stand a candidate of its own in these by-elections, out of respect for the Westminster system.

    • Catching Up says:

      04:52pm | 23/03/11

      Are the present elected members of the party so weak as they have no one with the ability to lead them. 

      Have they reached the stage that will mean that all questions by the opposition will be by proxy not directly to the parliament.

      I cannot see how you can be leader of a parliamentary party while not an elected member.

    • Jotun says:

      05:35pm | 23/03/11

      If you really think about it, there’s no-one on either side of Queensland state politics equipped to guide the state through the next few years. Newman is the best choice from either side, which says more about the whole Parliament than than just the LNP.

    • Just Interested says:

      06:49am | 23/03/11

      It isn’t the biggest deal in the world for Newman not to be in the Queensland Parliament. After all, in Queensland it is an unfixed three year term, and so the next election isn’t too far away. Secondly, the Queensland Parliament, which sits comparatively rarely, is hardly a magnet for media coverage.

      I therefore doubt there will be mass confusion about two ‘leaders’.

      This is therefore hardly a problem. His greater problem will be explaining why he’s cutting and running from a position where he has to oversee the rebuilding of a damaged city.

    • Richard says:

      08:18am | 23/03/11

      Surely as Premier he will have more scope and capacity to oversee the rebuilding of his damaged city…

      With all the resources of the State government behind him, Campbell Newman could achieve much more in the reconstruction effort than if he had just stayed as Lord Mayor with a annual budget of only $1.6 B

    • Gary says:

      12:28pm | 23/03/11

      So Richard, you really believe all of rural Queensland will sit idly by while ‘Tunnel View’ Cammpbell spends most of the Qld. budget on the capital?.  Much of rural Qld. is hurting from flood damage too, ya know

    • S.L says:

      06:50am | 23/03/11

      Ah yes the party that is “born to rule” still can’t get their heads around being in opposition.
      Clem Jones was an asset to Brisbane as was Ted Mack in North Sydney (but of course Ted did get elected to Canberra).
      Campbell Newman? Does he really think he is held in such esteem? Isn’t there any conservative shock jocks up there to push his barrow like there is in NSW and Victoria? Will be an interesting time in QLD politics and if I was Anna Bligh I’d be calling an election NOW!

    • Richard says:

      08:25am | 23/03/11

      S.L., you are sooo mistaken.

      I was actually amazed by the fawning media attitude by southern journalists towards Anna Bligh during and in the aftermath of the flood crisis. All the inner-city Melbourne and Sydney lefties decided they loved Anna Bligh and so therefore, everyone in Qld must love her as well.

      But in fact she is very very unpopular in Qld. She blatantly failed to declare her intention to privatise Qld’s income generating assets in the ‘09 election campaign, only to turn around a month afterwards and announce plans to sell QR, Port of Brisbane, Qld Forestry, etc etc etc.

      And our Credit rating was downgraded to AA. Bligh and her government are toxic in Qld, its just that up until now there has been no credible opposition to vote for, so they keep winning by default. But now, with Campbell Newman (who is extremely popular in Brisbane, and was so even before the floods, unlike Anna Bligh) at the helm, the urban regions of Qld should swing strongly to the LNP, and the Nationals always do extremely well in rural Qld on the other hand, so they really do have a comprehensive approach this time.

      I hope Anna Bligh calls an election NOW, but it doesn’t matter when she calls it, the gig is up, she’s done, and she knows it.

    • Denny Crane says:

      09:06am | 23/03/11

      SL,

      I live in QLD and from NSW, if Bligh wants to call election now, she can go right ahead, she has already backflipped on saying she would go fll term, to now not guaranteeing there will be election this year.

      For her to say what Campbell Newman is doing is not in spirit of the Westminister system, is ironic, i believed that if a Minister had a portfoloi ie helath and created a debacle that they should resign not under Bligh she just moves people around.

      Bligh is not a leader, ask all those from the floods, and the miniscual amounts of flood relief money that they have seen, she will be running scared for sure, dont be surprised to see some Labor MP’s in coming months announce that they will not stand to be relected, it will be NSW all over again.

    • S.L says:

      11:23am | 23/03/11

      Richard and Denny if you two are not LNP staffers I’ll eat my hat! The conservatives up there still have the “Joe for PM” hangover from 30 odd years ago. Even here in Sydney Alan Jones backed off Anna Bligh even though he got stuck into her the minute she got the job. Julia (or Joolya as the conservatives call her) Gillard has been finding cracks in the Liberal/National armoury lately with little or no comeback. NSW will be Liberal state territory after Sunday but I don’t think they’ll get the majority they think. Besides there’s already a leadership challenge waiting to happen in the NSW Libs that can be summed up in two words…........ Mike Baird!

    • Richard says:

      01:25pm | 23/03/11

      S.L., I guarantee I’m not an LNP staffer. In fact I despise the Qld National party, and I still remember the corruption and graft under Joh Bjielke Peiterson.

      But I am a Liberal, I am not too proud to admit it, which is why I support Campbell Newman. In the aftermath of the 2007 Federal election, Campbell Newman was actually the most senior Liberal leader in charge of an elected government, so he has gravitas in this respect.

      But if Anna Bligh is actually as popular as you posit, then why did Gillard publicly badmouth her on the very last day of the Federal election campaign last year, saying that there was no way for Qld’ers to get rid of their unpopular premier in the federal election so Qld voters should not let there dislike for Bligh’s unpopular government to affect their Federal voting intentions?

    • ekr says:

      08:46am | 23/03/11

      Campell Newman a successful mayor, WHAT? Clem Jones tunnel anyone? Disgustingly high public transport prices? Unused bike ways and a terribly executed attempt to push people into riding bikes? QLD state politics just became even more of a joke.

    • Barge says:

      09:14am | 23/03/11

      Campbell Newman doesn’t set public transport prices - that’s Translink, a State Government entity. The Clem Jones tunnel (a great facility) was built by private capital and it didn’t cost the council one cent and the hire bikes would work (as they do in other cities) if the State Government didn’t insist on helmets.

    • Richard says:

      09:26am | 23/03/11

      Hello? Clem Jones is an AWESOME tunnel! I drove through it the other day and it was so quick and popped me out right where I needed to be in like a quarter of the time it would normally take, with no traffic and no congestion~ it was so cool.

      And kind of eerie to, when I realised that the entire weight of the Brisbane river, with all its millions of litres of water, was above me. It really pressed home what a feat of engineering that tunnel is. And yes, it is a financially troubled, but Campbell Newman was such a shrewd negotiator that the ratepayers aren’t on the hook for anything and haven’t lost a red cent.

      Public transport prices, as part of the Translink network, come more under the jurisdiction of the State government nowadays than the BCC. So if you think public transport prices are too high, then that is yet another example of the incompetence and poor management of the Bligh government, which as failed to improve living standards for Qld’ers.

      Bike ways are certainly not unused, and they are also fantastic pieces of infrastructure. Nothing better than zooming along a bikeway on your carbon neutral pushbike instead of being stuck in congested traffic jams. (And I dare say a lot more people would be inclined to ride their bikes more often if the State government repealed their ridiculous and arbitrary bike helmet laws. Sheesh, talk about a nanny-state, they even want to tell you what head wear you have to wear when you’re going for a nice casual bike ride on a sunday afternoon…)

      It amazes me that Labor supporters will always criticise Liberal governments for not building any infrastructure, and then here we have a Liberal government that has been excellent at getting infrastructure built, on time and on budget, and now all you guys can do is complain about it! Mind-boggling.

    • cakeman says:

      03:02pm | 23/03/11

      ‘It amazes me that Labor supporters will always criticise Liberal governments for not building any infrastructure, and then here we have a Liberal government that has been excellent at getting infrastructure built, on time and on budget, and now all you guys can do is complain about it’
      if the BCC didn’t pay for the CLEM7 tunnel then it was the state labor who picked up the bill & hence built the tunnel not a liberal government. you can’t have your cake and eat it too.

    • TheRealDave says:

      04:27pm | 23/03/11

      @Richard - yep, the Tunnels are awesome! That’s why the company running them went broke. You had an awesome run because no bastard can afford to use them! Less than 30 000 cars are using it every day….and that was with discounted tolls! What were they projecting just to break even…50 or 60 000 cars a day?!?!

      But lets not let facts get in the way of your astroturfing shall we wink

      “It amazes me that Labor supporters will always criticise Liberal governments for not building any infrastructure, and then here we have a Liberal government that has been excellent at getting infrastructure built, on time and on budget, and now all you guys can do is complain about it! Mind-boggling”

      What amazes me more is:

      1) The Brisbane City Council is actually a LABOR majority council. Campbell is the Liberal Lord Mayor but he can’t do squat unless the majority Labor members approve it or table it.
      2) It amazes me that Liberal members and their supporters have the gall to sit back and say ‘hey, these tunnels will be awesome in a few decades when we will really need them”....5 seconds after bitching about the NBN being unnecessary and extravagant ... and after overlooking the fact the have done bugger all to alleviate the massive congestion issues we face daily on the roads right now.

      Maybe instead of putting in needed infrastructure ‘Can Do’ will give everyone a bike…I hear they are going great guns in Brisbane at the moment….

    • Richard says:

      06:16pm | 23/03/11

      @cakeman & therealdave, BCC did contribute funds to the Clem 7, but it hasn’t and cannot lose money on its investment, because Campbell Newman was savvy enough to ensure that Brisbane ratepayers were protected from commercial risk.

    • Dave-o says:

      11:52pm | 23/03/11

      @Richard, yep the BCC got the tunnel and the private investors lost bucket loads of cash. It’s a nice party trick but it’s pretty hard to do twice. I cant wait to see the influx of private investment dollars into Queensland after he becomes premier.

      There’s a billion dollar hole in the middle of Brisbane and how Newman has escaped any political consequence is unimaginable. Must have been industry super funds that put the cash together.

    • Chewy says:

      08:54am | 23/03/11

      Smart move by the LNP, I imagine any self respecting Queenslander would have a hard time voting 1 for someone named John-Paul, perhaps that might float with Victorians but hyphenated names just wouldnt wash with Queenslanders..

    • pC says:

      12:50pm | 23/03/11

      I could conceivably look past the name, if the one bearing the name wasn’t the only politician in Australia that would be comprehensively beaten by a completely inept labor government.

      JPL is/was the worst politician ever to grace us with his presence

    • Spanky McDoogleberry says:

      08:55am | 23/03/11

      Malcolm Turnbull should’ve done the same thing in NSW during his brief sojourn from Federal politics. He could’ve parachuted into Peter Debnam’s seat and become leader from day dot. It would’ve been the best thing for the Libs and NSW. No offence to Fatty O’Barrell, but he’s too much of a soft touch. What NSW needs is two things: complete electoral oblivion for the ALP and a leader who is willing to use his majority to fix the state (a la Kennett in Victoria). They need to be ruthless to remove the complacency, profligacy and corruption that is Labor’s millieu and return NSW to the premier state.

    • GB says:

      09:00am | 23/03/11

      @S.L. You don’t even live here so how would you know the esteem in which Newman is held. I can tell you he is extremely popular in Brisbane. His issue may be in the rural areas as there may be a perception that he is all about Brisbane at the expense of the rest of the state. Much like what got Kennett booted out in Victoria. If he can win over the rural constituencies, we’ll have a new Government up here at the next election. I’m fairly certain of that. Bligh’s post flood honeymoon is well and truly coming to an end and Queenslanders are now getting back to the business of judging her and her government on their performance, which is one colossal FAIL. Much like Gillard she lied her way into office by saying there were no plans to sell off public assets and as soon as she was re-elected pretty much put the “For Sale” sign up. Concerned expressions and caring words will only get you so far. Ultimately you are judged on your performance.

    • S.L says:

      09:18pm | 23/03/11

      Thankyou for that insight into QLD politics GB but when commentators such as Alan Jones backs off you know the mood is changing up there. Sure I’m no expert on local politics up there but I’ve been to QLD and seen enough besides if Ms Bligh was so on the nose why are the conservatives looking to change their leader for one who isn’t even in parliament?

    • Dieter Moeckel says:

      10:04am | 23/03/11

      An unelected member as leader of the opposition does not have a mandate from the people there fore is a
      Don’t forget that Newman is totally engrossed with Brisbane and that will mean that regional Queensland will get nothing while Brisbane and the South East will get it all.

    • Ben says:

      10:49am | 23/03/11

      This is a silly comment. Of course Newman is engrossed with Brisbane - he is the Lord Mayor of Brisbane. Don’t you think the people of Brisbane would get a little pissed off if he was touring around the flood affected regions of rural queensland? That doesn’t make sense. It is his job to be engrossed with Brisbane!

      I will even make a logical step here… If he is so engrossed with Brisbane, while being the Lord Mayor of Brisbane. Then wouldn’t he be engrossed with Queensland as the Premier of Queensland.

    • TimB says:

      10:58am | 23/03/11

      “there fore is a…” what?

      One should always finish their thoughts when they expect to make a point.

      And I believe his plan is in fact *to* be elected. If it happens, that’s basically a mandate right there. It’s not as if the plan is secret or anything.

      As for your comment about regional QLD, now I’m not a Queenslander so I could be wrong, but isn’t this the case at EVERY one of your elections? The electorates are concentrated in SE QLD so thats why thos issues end up taking prominence. Isn’t that why you have a group agitating for QLD to be split up into more states?  How is Bligh going to be any different than Newman in that regard?

    • GB says:

      11:30am | 23/03/11

      Come off it Dieter. He is the Mayor of Brisbane, not Ipswich, not Mt Isa, not anywhere else. Of course it’s the people of Brisbane who’s interests he represents at the moment. What a pathetically weak argument you just put forward.

    • Fran says:

      12:11pm | 23/03/11

      Bligh has to go to the polls now!!!!
      She still have a good flood / cyclone vote and they have to play on the fear of having a unelected leader as LNP boss.  The ALP quickly need the PR machine to bag Newman at every turn, blame the high cost of rates, that he is arrogant and hates women, anything will do really. Blighs has been doing well calling it a undermining of democracy and Newmans cutting and running and turning his back on Brisbane. We need to get as much bad press on Campbell as possible.
      Focusing on tunnels and infrastructure is a losing route as most of it was back by the Qld Government as well. The problem is that he is too popular in Brisbane and weather people like it of not ‘Can Do Campbell’ is a pretty tacky but its a sticks and it what people remember.

      ALP need to lock people like Lucas,Robertson, Nolan up until the election is over as they appear foolish and have too much bad press. Focus in the kinder Bligh / leave the hard hat at home because Newman is the real deal in that area. Bligh needs to be more family. kids focused, kiss a few kids, cry a bit more, that sort of thing. Newman cant do kind and gentle because he isnt a women and hes isnt a kind hearted bloke. Ex military and ex engineer doesnt make for a great personality.  The ALP cant really focus on health, education, budget, assests etc because they all look pretty grim.  Play the fear card for all it worth, paint Newman as the monster who left Brisbane to fend for itself in the greatest time of need.

    • youdy beaudy says:

      12:12pm | 23/03/11

      I like Cambell newman. He is a good talker and seems to have the interests of the Brisbane people at heart. He would be a good Leader for the Nat libs in Queensland and it would give him the opportunity to do more for the whole of Queensland as he has done in Brisbane. I wish him the best of luck, he’ll probably need it knowing Queensland Politics. Mr Lanbroek has also done a good job as well but it would be hard for him to knock over Anna and get the Job. Maybe Cambell can do it.

    • SkepDad says:

      12:31pm | 23/03/11

      The LNP needs an electable leader and it doesn’t have one in any sitting member.  The ALP and political media can bang on all they like about electoral process and the curiosity of having a leader-elect without a seat, but I doubt the Queensland voters give a toss.  They may also remember that Bligh sat as Premier for 18 months without a popular mandate, having slid into the job behind Beatty.

      Bligh will no doubt try to characterise the situation as disorderly and chaotic, but the truth of the matter is that Newman has the full support of the LNP (indeed, he is their great white hope) and it is only the vagaries of the process that prevent that from being legitimised before the election.

      If there is any criticism of the LNP in this, it is JPL’s and the Borg’s decisions to step down now.  I can understand that they saw it as a public endorsement of Newman (and probably a private “eff you” to the LNP backroom), but it played into Bligh’s hands by forcing a new, temporary leadership for her to snipe at.

      QLD Labor has been a disaster.  Bligh’s popularity spike during and after the floods and cyclones was a result of only two things: surrounding herself with capable people like Mick Slater, and high visibility and communication (no doubt on the former’s advice). 

      We will see all sorts of games from Bligh - refusing to debate Newman (“I will debate the leader of the opposition, not the candidate for Ashgrove”), flip-flopping on “vote the party not the leader” depending on the political advantage to be gained at the time, and more of this nonsense about Newman “abandoning Brisbane”. 

      Ultimately she will have to face the voters with a shaky personal reputation and a dysfunctional and historically ineffective party.  She should hope that Gillard gets her act together too, or the anti-Bligh sentiment that crippled the ALP in QLD at the federal election may well be mirrored in anti-Gillard sentiment at the state polls.

    • Gary says:

      04:26pm | 23/03/11

      @ SkepDad says:12:31pm | 23/03/11


      Maybe you forget the loss of seats for Labor last year because Rudd was back-stabbed?  Yet you expect the same voters will ignore the back-stabbing of JP?

    • skepdad says:

      07:35pm | 23/03/11

      The difference is that Labor voters liked KRudd enough to elect him.  LNP voters almost universally as far as I can tell recognise that JPL was only electable on the grounds of being “not Bligh” rather than on his own merits.

    • TheRealDave says:

      04:32pm | 23/03/11

      Its funny. The Liberals have always been an afterthought in Queensland politics. Its been the Nationals who have been the senior party here. Yet here we are today. The Libs ‘Faceless Men’ have finally stuck the knife into their partners and taken over in a long running coup, despite still being the minority party. I’m amazed the Nationals have sat back and allowed this to happen quite honestly.

      As much McLindon is a clown maybe he did have a few points when he cast off from the LNP a few months ago. A few mind you…...don’t go silly now…

    • mary monica roche says:

      05:45pm | 23/03/11

      what happens if Campbell Newman is not elected to parliament next election?
      Liberal are then in Chaos.
      Someone with a safe Liberal Seat should resign immediately to force a by election in two months time.
      Then campbell Y Newman should enter parliament as Liberal Leader about JMay 2011 and then contest the March 2012 as Liberal Leader.
      our comment:

    • The Badger says:

      06:06pm | 23/03/11

      Wasn’t Newman the loopy postman Seinfeld hated?
      Any relation?

    • Mr Pod says:

      08:52pm | 23/03/11

      It would be a novelty having an engineer leading rather than the usual lawyers

    • Dave-o says:

      11:34pm | 23/03/11

      Clem also helped with Darwin’s post Tracey reconstruction.

    • Sandy says:

      01:51pm | 24/03/11

      “The second is that Brisbane voters like keeping their successful Lord Mayors. ... The official explanation was that the public wanted him to stay on as Lord Mayor.”  Aaaah.  So is that’s why Bligh shot forth with the goofy sounding ‘abandoning his post’ line? Not so goofy after all?  She was planting a seed in fertile ground? Very cunning. Thanks for the heads up Farr.

 

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