A motley crew will feast on NSW Labor’s corpse
There could be some quirky or even downright hostile fellow diners with the Liberals who are now preparing to feast on the ALP carcass at the NSW election.
So many, and so non-mainstream, that perhaps they will ruin Barry O’Farrell’s appetite.
Voters who are keen to dispatch the ALP might also be in a mind to prevent the election of a Coalition Government which for four years could do what it wanted. There has been a bit of this type of electoral insurance taken out in recent polls.
And the optional preferential vote could see really minor parties elevated in the rush to push Labor out the door.
By late todaywe will know who hopes to carve a slice of political power at the banquet. Nominations will close and those quirky and hostile candidates will be identified.
Barry O’Farrell has every encouragement, including the analysis of the ALP, to believe he will be Premier and have a huge majority in the Legislative Assembly in 19 days’ time.
There also are strong expectations he will have control of the Upper House, the 42-seat Legislative Council.
However, the magnitude of the electoral move against 16 years of Labor government is so vast that more than the Liberals and Nationals might benefit.
We could be heading for a record swing to turf out a government, according to the ABC’s election analyst Anthony Green.
The biggest recorded since 1950 was 14.6 per cent which removed the John Cain Labor government in 1955. But it took the Labor split to bring that about.
It took the collapse of the State Bank of SA to dump the Labor government of Lyn Arnold with a 9.1 per cent swing in 1993.
Even the electoral decision to end 32 years of non-Labor government in Queensland produced a swing to Wayne Goss of a relatively small 8.4 per cent.
So we might be about to see something of the proportions of 1955 in Victoria, which would mean the ALP wouldn’t have the numbers for an AFL side in the Lower House.
In the Upper House contest, the Greens have big ambitions which could see the O’Farrell victory slightly less than complete.
There are two Greens already there who will continue into the next Parliament, and by varying calculations the party could win another three or four for a total of five or six.
That would require about 14 per cent of the vote, compared to the 9 per cent the Greens won in 2007. It’s possible. Nothing which has happened federally would have convinced Green voters to go elsewhere, and the January-February Newspoll had the party in NSW at 17 per cent.
The ALP core vote might win it a total of 14 Lower House seats. Combined with the Greens, which would be as many as 20 seats out of the 42. An O’Farrell government would need 22 votes in the Legislative Council to get legislation through.
The two votes of the Christian Democrats and the two of the Shooters and Hunters would be decisive.
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