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A motley crew will feast on NSW Labor’s corpse

Malcolm Farr

by Malcolm Farr

07 Mar 05:40am

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Filed under: Kristina Keneally, Labor, Nsw Election, Political Parties, Politics

42 comments

There could be some quirky or even downright hostile fellow diners with the Liberals who are now preparing to feast on the ALP carcass at the NSW election.

Cartoon: Glenn Dirix

So many, and so non-mainstream, that perhaps they will ruin Barry O’Farrell’s appetite.

Voters who are keen to dispatch the ALP might also be in a mind to prevent the election of a Coalition Government which for four years could do what it wanted. There has been a bit of this type of electoral insurance taken out in recent polls.

And the optional preferential vote could see really minor parties elevated in the rush to push Labor out the door.

By late todaywe will know who hopes to carve a slice of political power at the banquet. Nominations will close and those quirky and hostile candidates will be identified.

Barry O’Farrell has every encouragement, including the analysis of the ALP, to believe he will be Premier and have a huge majority in the Legislative Assembly in 19 days’ time.

There also are strong expectations he will have control of the Upper House, the 42-seat Legislative Council.

However, the magnitude of the electoral move against 16 years of Labor government is so vast that more than the Liberals and Nationals might benefit.

We could be heading for a record swing to turf out a government, according to the ABC’s election analyst Anthony Green.

The biggest recorded since 1950 was 14.6 per cent which removed the John Cain Labor government in 1955. But it took the Labor split to bring that about.

It took the collapse of the State Bank of SA to dump the Labor government of Lyn Arnold with a 9.1 per cent swing in 1993.

Even the electoral decision to end 32 years of non-Labor government in Queensland produced a swing to Wayne Goss of a relatively small 8.4 per cent.

So we might be about to see something of the proportions of 1955 in Victoria, which would mean the ALP wouldn’t have the numbers for an AFL side in the Lower House.

In the Upper House contest, the Greens have big ambitions which could see the O’Farrell victory slightly less than complete.

There are two Greens already there who will continue into the next Parliament, and by varying calculations the party could win another three or four for a total of five or six.

That would require about 14 per cent of the vote, compared to the 9 per cent the Greens won in 2007. It’s possible. Nothing which has happened federally would have convinced Green voters to go elsewhere, and the January-February Newspoll had the party in NSW at 17 per cent.

The ALP core vote might win it a total of 14 Lower House seats. Combined with the Greens, which would be as many as 20 seats out of the 42. An O’Farrell government would need 22 votes in the Legislative Council to get legislation through.

The two votes of the Christian Democrats and the two of the Shooters and Hunters would be decisive.

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42 comments

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    • Nora R Ferguson says:

      05:21am | 07/03/11

      I agree that Labor might loose and this will be a big shame but I think peopl arent stupid enough to go to the neocons.  I think we will finally see Greens take the balance of power.  Happy days. Not only will be have control of both houses federally after July but we will control a state too.  Happy Days

      Reply

    • Ben says:

      08:14am | 07/03/11

      No, that would be Scary Days, VERY Scary Days…..

    • rob brown says:

      08:31am | 07/03/11

      Not a problem Nora ( who loves a steak ), have a look at the Irish elections. The greens there were thrown out. Will happen here too once the people see how rabid the greens are…so happy days indeed.

    • Tony of Poorakistan says:

      08:48am | 07/03/11

      Not going to happen. 
       
      People are already starting to question the Green loonies federally. The quote from Senator Milne about taxing the shit out of petrol would have gone down like a turd in a punchbowl in outer Sydney and Bob Brown’s twisting of the redhead’s arm to bring in gay marriage and euthenasia as a deal for the next risible ALP policy would alienate some of the more traditional voters.

    • PTom says:

      11:55am | 07/03/11

      @Tony, You do talk Liberal party shit don’t you. Where in the Federal legislation is there anything about bring in “gay marriage and euthenasia ” all it is about is stopping a Federal Minister overturning a territory law, but this does not stop commonwealth from overturning such laws.
      This would bring the new territory of Norfolk and the ACT and NT with the other States.

    • John Parry says:

      08:59pm | 07/03/11

      Nora, stop taking whatever you’re taking, it’s making you say really stupid things.

    • Against the Man says:

      05:36am | 07/03/11

      State ALP in NSW (as in everywhere else) is a failure, Federal ALP is a failure. ALP is a failure of a party through and through. The ALP doesn’t care about Australia, all talk but no solutions to our countries problems. I say good riddance to bad ALP rubbish, you will never be missed.

      Reply

    • TChong says:

      06:35am | 07/03/11

      Hey AtM , when Baz gets in , you will only need about 5   instead of 7 or 8 cups of coffee in the mornings , in order to maintain an adequate amount of rage.  ; )

    • n_dude says:

      11:30am | 07/03/11

      Or maybe only one can of “Jolt”...

    • PTom says:

      12:00pm | 07/03/11

      Yer, ATM all we need is two parties the Liberal and the Nationals because the do anything right. hahahaha

    • Against the Man says:

      06:54pm | 07/03/11

      What a wonderful soft cock answer TChong, with that kind of insight and wit you should be an ALP minister smile

    • Reality Check says:

      06:53am | 07/03/11

      Count the Greens amongst that “motely crew”

      This may go against conventional wisdom, but judging by the extreme hostility coming from the Greens and directed against Labor (quite pathological in its intensity), you can’t really count them as “together with Labor” this time. They have been working for “the end of Labor” for at least a decade in my area (inner west of Sydney), and they are about to succeed.

      Just as that will produce an Abbott federal government soon enough, their tactics will deliver NSW to the conservatives for at least 12 years, maybe longer. Labor will have a dozen member in the new parliament.

      And the Greens themselves will have a lonely few, despised (especially by Labor – they will have destroyed its friendly left), and ignored by both sides.

      Reply

    • Daniel says:

      07:47am | 07/03/11

      Malcolm,
      You’re pretty much on the money there on that one. Let’s hope the ALP is wiped out in huge numbers Malcolm. But we need to keep the checks and balances in line by electing more Greens to the upper house. We don’t want to see a NSW style of Howard’s work choices brought in here and drive the population down. Labor has been on the nose for so long with its continual navel gazing and internal fights and scandals. It’s time to weed out the deadwood.

      Reply

    • Huey says:

      08:40am | 07/03/11

      Daniel, Daniel, Daniel! More Greens..REALLY?

    • TimB says:

      08:58am | 07/03/11

      Workchoices drove the population down?

      That’s a new one.

    • Daniel says:

      02:12pm | 07/03/11

      Tim,

      If people can get higher wages in other states due to a regressive policy why would they stay in NSW. Get with the program.

    • TimB says:

      03:27pm | 07/03/11

      Ok, let’s ignore the sillyness of your sincere belief that the O’Farrell government being elected means a NSW-specific version of Workchoices (lol).

      Let’s look closely at your hypothetical situation. Wages go down (apparently this is what evil Workchoices does) and people decide to move interstate for higher wages.

      Then what? All of a sudden the Labor market has packed up and left NSW and no-one is doing the work. How do employers entice them back?

      Oh that’s right. *Higher* wages. Market forces are a wonderful thing aren’t they Daniel?

      Considering you support a party that at polls 12% on a good day, I would like to think I’m a lot more with “the program” than you are.

    • Daniel says:

      09:57pm | 07/03/11

      Tim,
      Part of your answer might be right but what about the lost conditions? Why do we have to get to this situation in the first place? The Liberals will drag us there believe me. It wont be good for the state. If you support the Liberals fine but dont let them control the NSW upper house. The start of this will be the loss of some NSW public holidays then you and others that supported Barry will be whinging.

    • DocBud says:

      08:46am | 07/03/11

      “Voters who are keen to dispatch the ALP might also be in a mind to prevent the election of a Coalition Government which for four years could do what it wanted. There has been a bit of this type of electoral insurance taken out in recent polls.”

      When is this meeting of all voters to decide how to carve up the parliament taking place, Malcolm?

      The Federal minority government is turning out to be a real dog for taxpayers. Whenever Julia needs the votes of the independents or Greens, they blackmail her and she happily hands over some of our money to pay the bribe or even introduces a whole new tax to keep them happy. NSW voters would be much better off having a majority government than a minority one with other parties feeding at the taxpayer trough.

      Reply

    • PTom says:

      12:10pm | 07/03/11

      May be BOF will keep the Ethic classes even thou the Churchs are against them, scrap the state royalities for a mining profit tax like Fedral Labor or he may even increase speed through schools zones.
      However having a majority government , like we had under the last term of Howard which introduce Workchoice. So what will BOF do?

    • Ryan says:

      09:11am | 07/03/11

      I hope to see the Labor party wiped off the map altogether here in NSW, unfortunately no matter how incompetent, no matter how many lies, there are still those that want to be ripped off by this corrupt party.

      Reply

    • Kevin says:

      09:30am | 07/03/11

      In the recent Victorian election the coalition refused to direct preferences to the Greens (a move which arguably won the coalition votes) and as a result the Greens failed to make any ground.  In fact, I think they may have lost a couple of members in the upper house.  This was only a few months after the Greens won their first lower house seat in Melbourne in the federal election.  So I wouldn’t be counting on the Greens doing well in NSW.

      Reply

    • Thommo the Enlightened says:

      09:49am | 07/03/11

      These are the final days of the greens. Their idealism simply falls flat under the massive pressure of reality. Day to Day life is far more important to 99% of the population than worrying about if some turtle somehwere is going to go extinct - hey guess what greenies, the whole planet will go extinct in a few million years when th sun goes Supernova - what are you gonna do then - tax the sun? You’re stupid - end of story. I know you have your heart in the right place, but unfortunately your brain is in your rectum. Green movements worlwide are all now in decline. Read the breakthrough repofrt if you don’t beleive it - or check out New hampshire or Ireland (or Spain). The only loonies left on earth are California, EU Commies and the Australian GreenLabor party. Prime Minister Bob Brown should hang his head in shame. It’s a pity we don’t have a similar culture to feudal Japan. You know what leaders had to do back then when they made humiliating mistakes. And the malthusian Greens should be all for suicide as it will help get rid of all those pesky humans who keep spoiling their sunsets with chimney stacks. Why don’t we just round up all the greens worldwide and ship them off to madagascar, they can do what they want with that little piece of history.

      Reply

    • Anna C says:

      10:50am | 07/03/11

      I have to agree with you there.  I think there is going to be a backlash against the Greens.  While they may sound good in theory to some, when it comes to the day-to-day realities of life they do not have a clue.  Like this stupid Carbon tax, it is all well and good for the Greens to say that we should all be taxed to the hilt, so that we all use public transport (which I do use by the way), but this is simply not feasible for a lot of people living outside of the inner city areas.  Greens supporters in places like Balmain and Glebe need to understand that while they may live in a privileged area which is high socio-economoically, close to the city and close to public transport ; not everyone else in NSW does.  To me the Greens and their supporters have come to symbolise the new wealthy, smug, white, PC, “we know what’s best” elite of politics.

    • Anna C says:

      10:50am | 07/03/11

      I have to agree with you there.  I think there is going to be a backlash against the Greens.  While they may sound good in theory to some, when it comes to the day-to-day realities of life they do not have a clue.  Like this stupid Carbon tax, it is all well and good for the Greens to say that we should all be taxed to the hilt, so that we all use public transport (which I do use by the way), but this is simply not feasible for a lot of people living outside of the inner city areas.  Greens supporters in places like Balmain and Glebe need to understand that while they may live in a privileged area which is high socio-economoically, close to the city and close to public transport ; not everyone else in NSW does.  To me the Greens and their supporters have come to symbolise the new wealthy, smug, white, PC, “we know what’s best” elite of politics.

    • Super D says:

      10:10am | 07/03/11

      I hope Barry gets control of both houses and then uses it wisely.  NSW needs some seriously hard decisions to be made and needs to be able to get things done.  We can’t afford to waste another 4 years.

      Reply

    • Dan says:

      11:11am | 07/03/11

      The O’Farrell government will be a dud. Look how this lot has performed in opposition over many years. They should have rolled Labor eons ago, but it’s not until Labor has rotted to the core that they are in any position to win government. The unfortunate thing for those in NSW is that while just about anything is better than the current ALP lot, O’Farrell’s bunch will be barely competent at best. And spare us from the Greens, shooters and religious nutters in the Upper House! It’s a good time to be living somewhere else.

      Reply

    • Zeta says:

      11:18am | 07/03/11

      On a completely unrelated note, I clicked on one of Malcolm Farr’s twitter links and got my account hacked along with most of the NSW and Canberra press galleries.

      If you can’t trust Malcolm Farr who can you trust?

      Reply

    • Adam Diver says:

      11:27am | 07/03/11

      Julia Gillard?

      Just kidding, I know a Nigerian prince you can trust, just email me your bank details.

    • Lee-Anne says:

      11:20am | 07/03/11

      Barry OFarrell seems to be a small l liberal, thats great. Imagine though he has control of both houses of parliament and the rabid christian right of the liberal party decided to use this to propagate their agenda. Heaven help us all, especially those of us who aren’t christian and/or agree with their very conservative policies. Makes me shudder….to evn think of this!

      Reply

    • n_dude says:

      11:39am | 07/03/11

      Me too. I don’t get the impression he is a particularly strong leader. I met the Lib candidate for my electorate and he seems to be a decent person (certainly does not have the tarnished image of the current sitting Labor member). However, I keep thinking of Tony Abbott and his rabid mob having influence in areas like removing Ethics classes.

      On the other hand I just cannot vote for Labor who deserve to spend time in the wilderness.

    • Ryan says:

      12:35pm | 07/03/11

      @Lee-Anne: it makes you shudder to think of a government that isn’t corrupt, doesn’t lie about its promises to get into power then deliver none of them and doesn’t waste or launder through unions all our tax money? Well I never!

    • Reg says:

      04:43pm | 07/03/11

      You’re right Lee-Anne, Mr O’Farrell is going to have to suck up to his religious right, so expect some interesting outcomes.

      @Ryan are you speaking of the likes of the Joh Bejlke Petersen honest government? The most corrupt, so called Christian—right-wing government that ever fiddled the books.

    • Gerard says:

      07:04pm | 07/03/11

      Ryan, you’re off with the fairies, there’s no such thing as a clean government. Try reading Nineteen Eighty-Four.

    • Ryan says:

      11:54pm | 07/03/11

      @Reg: this government and the current federal Labor government makes him look like honest joe.

    • Emily says:

      12:01pm | 07/03/11

      The Greens are much worse than Labor.  Let us hope the NSWers are smart enough to punish both parties.  I am hoping they won’t be enough of them left to play squash by himself.

      Reply

    • PTom says:

      12:20pm | 07/03/11

      That right Emily we don’t need a oppisition. We need a parliament that will decide on thing based on their factions Right, Centre-Right or Nationals. That should see all good laws introducted just like Howards last term..

    • Marilyn Shepherd says:

      03:26pm | 07/03/11

      OK, wipe out the ALP and put in the party of do nothing ever.  What precisely will that achieve in real terms?

      The libs. always close schools, run down hospitals, destroy public transport completely and pander to laura norder and sell everything left that is not tied down.

      Olsen was booted out in SA for corrupt dealings with Motorola, Kennett was akin to a facist, Joh had such a vicious gerrymander that Queensland lived in the 18th century, Bob Menzies flogged pig iron to the Japanese to make more bombs and invited us into the Vietnam hell.

      What precisely do the lieberals ever do in government.

      Come on little genius people - tell us what they do.

      That’s right - they do the hokey pokey with Meg Lees to give us the delectable GS frigging T.

      Reply

    • MarK says:

      04:02pm | 07/03/11

      The hate in this one is strong.

      Menzies….LAWL

    • Gavin says:

      05:04pm | 07/03/11

      My State, My State…Kick Start My State….

      Reply

    • John Parry says:

      09:10pm | 07/03/11

      LOL. Marylin, maybe tell us what your beloved Labour stooges have done for the state in the past 15 years? I mean, the roads look great don’t they? Sell everything? Well, I guess that’s better than giving it away. Lora norder, sure who needs it? GST? Here’s a Labour beauty for you - “There will be no carbon tax under the government I lead”. (Thank heavens she had her fingers crossed)!

      Reply

    • Col. of blackburn says:

      09:18pm | 07/03/11

      The Electorate will vote for whoever the electorate votes for! It will be interesting to see what happens to the Greens?
      I think that there is a good chance that they will lose votes?

      Reply
 
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farrm51 24 May 13 07:59AM

@PompousGoose Noted criticism. Are you the former MP nicknamed Dorrie after a TV character who would whine,' I never know what’s going on'.

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@TheStalwart an analyst in Sydney said it was a "sad day" http://t.co/vh4Yu4OgDD. I think he was just exhausted and gave up analyzing

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