Peter Costello has decided to leave his seat of Higgins in Melbourne before the next election meaning that the Liberals will face two by-elections in close succession or even on the same day.
The former Treasurer is yet to give a reason as to why he has left early but he has managed to turn Malcolm Turnbull’s current position from scary to downright horrific. This is like that scene from the latest Saw movie even the actors apparently had to walk out on.
One upside to the departure is that the distraction of Peter Costello will be over with once and for all for Malcolm Turnbull. The downside is this: two men who were the most senior remaining members of the Howard Government, Brendan Nelson and now Peter Costello, have decided to leave Parliament early causing by-elections in the middle of what is already a crisis for Malcolm Turnbull and his party over the ETS.
While the on-going presence of these two men, especially Costello, in Parliament could have been destabilising to Turnbull, their greater role was to Turnbull’s benefit as they kept less disciplined members of the party from going after him.
If it wasn’t already, it’s open season on Turnbull over the ETS and anything else disgruntled MPs want to throw in for good measure.
There was a great press release put out earlier in the week that summed up the current position of the Liberal Party.
It wasn’t put out by a Liberal, a National or even the Government. No it was issued by our very own Tripitaka of the Senate Family First’s Steve Fielding.
“The Coalition is like a sinking ship without any lifeboats at the moment,” Senator Fielding said.
“The Liberal party is in danger of losing their financial credibility if it caves in and votes for an ETS before Copenhagen, so if I was a Liberal senator I’d be looking to jump ship with some dignity.”
When Steve Fielding starts lecturing your political dignity you know you are in trouble.
Even worse for the Coalition, he’s right.
Say what you will about Fielding but at least he can say that he won’t go near the ETS at that moment.
The Coalition is currently split into three groups: those who don’t want an ETS full stop (read the Nationals and climate skeptics like Tuckey) those who don’t want to sign off on anything before Copenhagen (a significant number of powerful Liberals, soon to depart Peter Costello devoted an entire column to it yesterday) and those who want to agree on amendments and pass Rudd’s ETS before November (Turnbull and a few others trying to hold things together).
It should be noted that, as Lenore Taylor pointed out this morning, there’s a fair bit of cross-over between categories A and B.
Joe Hockey has confirmed this afternoon that he has been sounded out for the Liberal leadership.
This is hardly surprising given he’s the only real alternative at the moment. I’ve argued he’s the only choice before, but some, like Punch editor David Penberthy, have argued that Tony Abbott could be worth a shot.
Hockey has admitted the talks on the leadership took place, and unlike Colgo today, I don’t think that this is disloyalty.
With the current crisis in the party he’d be unable to deny it with a straight face.
Perhaps even more naively, I believe Hockey when he says he doesn’t want to lead the Liberal Party. Who the hell would?
Hockey could find himself as leader if Turnbull actually makes good on his promise to stake his leadership on being able to bring the party into line on the issue.
But all the same problems currently ravaging the Liberals would still be present for a Hockey led opposition as a Turnbull one.
Even if Hockey decided to change policy and decide to delay an ETS before Copenhagen, as would be pretty likely in the event of a leadership change over the issue, what then?
Hockey would still face the prospect of a double dissolution if the ETS was rejected in November (a bit of a Rudd bluff but nonetheless a nightmare scenario for the Libs) and periodic highland raids from Nationals who want to threaten the future of the Coalition itself.
Have a look at the recent cut-off-nose-to-spite-face scenario in Queensland. One of the few performing and younger senior Liberals Peter Dutton lost preselection for a safer seat because the Nats among the Queensland Liberal-National Party wanted to make a point about, “those folks from down south not telling us what to do.”
So now Costello’s leaving too. Aside from the message it sends and the disruption it will cause, who knows what he might say or do before the next election now free of even the illusion of loyalty to Turnbull.
Those with weak stomachs might want to leave now.
Facebook Recommendations
Read all about it
Punch live
Up to the minute Twitter chatter
@TheStalwart an analyst in Sydney said it was a "sad day" http://t.co/vh4Yu4OgDD. I think he was just exhausted and gave up analyzing
RT @NASA: Amazing views from the International Space Station of Pavlof Volcano erupting in Alaska. http://t.co/vqBkkiOful
US Google Doodle features a girl's touching depiction of her father's return from Iraq http://t.co/4LiRFOntTY
Recent posts
The latest and greatest
The Punch is moving house
Good morning Punchers. After four years of excellent fun and great conversation, this is the final post…
Will Pope Francis have the vision to tackle this?
I have had some close calls, one that involved what looked to me like an AK47 pointed my way, followed…
Advocating risk management is not “victim blaming”
In a world in which there are still people who subscribe to the vile notion that certain victims of sexual…
Nosebleed Section
choice ringside rantings
From: Hasbro, go straight to gaol, do not pass go
Tim says:
They should update other things in the game too. Instead of a get out of jail free card, they should have a Dodgy Lawyer card that not only gets you out of jail straight away but also gives you a fat payout in compensation for daring to arrest you in the first place. Instead of getting a hotel when you… [read more]From: A guide to summer festivals especially if you wouldn’t go
Kel says:
If you want a festival for older people or for families alike, get amongst the respectable punters at Bluesfest. A truly amazing festival experience to be had of ALL AGES. And all the young "festivalgoers" usually write themselves off on the first night, only to never hear from them again the rest of… [read more]Gentle jabs to the ribs
Superman needs saving
Can somebody please save Superman? He seems to be going through a bit of a crisis. Eighteen months ago,… Read more
Most commented