The Liberal Party’s 42 to 41 vote to strip the Opposition leadership from Malcolm Turnbull and hand it to Tony Abbott was a split decision in more ways than one.

The Liberal Party is now so badly divided that a distinct possibility exists that a group - possibly led by Malcolm Turnbull - will leave to establish their own party.
A split party is the price that is sometimes paid when ideology prevails over moderate, pragmatic politics - just ask anyone who was in the Labor Party during the 20th century.
The Liberal Party is divided over its ideological direction - not just the ETS or Turnbull’s leadership style. Any hope of Joe Hockey pulling them together was dashed by Tony Abbott’s attack on him and - by inference - all moderate Liberals.
The latest twist in the Liberal Party soap opera saw Tony Abbott and his supporters lining up to shoot down Joe Hockey for wanting a conscience vote on the ETS bill. Anyone listening to Abbott in his press conference on Monday would have believed that he is more contemptuos of Hockey than of Turnbull.
Hardline rightwingers like Abbott see conscience votes and an inclusive approach to politics as a sign of weakness.
He is a product of the ‘winner takes all’ NSW Liberal Party which so comprehensively and publicly destroyed John Brogden as NSW Opposition Leader a few years ago - knowing that in doing so they were condemning their Party to yet another term in Opposition.
Hockey was only acceptable to the hardline rightwing if he denounced and blocked the ETS bill. A free vote was never going to cut it with that group. Their Senate leader, Nick Minchin, actually thinks that climate change is a myth created by communists who infiltrated the green movement after the fall of the Berlin wall. Those comments gave the rest of us a sobering insight into just how extreme that group really is.
Given this, is it really feasible that Turnbull and his supporters can survive - let alone thrive - in today’s Liberal Party?
If Turnbull’s comments to Laurie Oakes on Sunday are anything to go by then it seems pretty clear that he believes that the Liberal Party simply cannot survive with the climate change deniers who are now in charge of their party. This is some of what he said to Oakes:
“Look, the Minchinites do not want to delay consideration of the legislation, they do not believe that climate change is real.”
He went on to say that the Minchin forces, (which includes Abbott):
“...are destroying the Liberal Party. There is a recklessness and a wilfulness in these men which is going to destroy the Liberal Party.”
If that wasn’t enough, he then said:
“If this issue is not resolved, the climate change war that Nick Minchin and his wreckers have started will continue to destroy the Liberal Party….”
And finally:
“...if we put the party back together in accordance with Nick Minchin’s views then we will end up becoming a fringe party of the far right…”
This hardly sounds like a man who is planning to remain in a Liberal Party which turns its back on the most pressing issue of the 21st century.
He knows that the Liberal Party leadership is opposed to serious climate change action regardless of what happens at Copenhagen.
No one now seriously believes that anything that comes out of Copenhagen will change the views of the Liberal hard right or the National Party. If Moses turned up in Denmark and handed down the 11th Commandment: “thou shalt not allow the globe to warm”, they would find some way of saying he was spinning for Rudd, Brown and Obama.
The Liberal Party right wing targeted Turnbull in the only area they knew he would not be able to move - climate change. To the conservatives who now run that party Malcolm Turnbull is the embodiment of everything they detest. He wants a republic, he’s called for a new national flag and he genuinely believes the planet will die if emissions aren’t brought under control. In other words Turnbull is one of the people Minchin is warning everyone to avoid.
Kevin Rudd stands in sharp contrast to this urge to purge.
His recent appointments - Costello, Nelson and Fisher - places him in an almost post-partisan position. As one party tears itself apart the other stands right in the philosophical centre of Australian politics. While elements in the Liberal party move to marginalise their opponents, Labor welcomes them into its ranks.
The political success of Kevin Rudd is in large part due to this fundamental difference in approach. Federal Labor spent two thirds of the twentieth century in Opposition.
In Rudd’s home state of Queensland the split over religion and ideology which saw the rise of the DLP led to Labor spending 32 years in Opposition. As chief of staff to Wayne Goss, the last Labor Opposition Leader of that era, Rudd saw at first hand the devastation that ideological division brings to an otherwise competitive political party.
It is this ability to seize the centre that infuriates the hard right and their spruikers in the media. Why else would they be so hostile to him? Rudd represents everything they hate - centrism over extremism and inclusion over exclusion. This is tough stuff if you’re a ‘no shades of grey’ conservative.
So, when Malcolm Turnbull dispassionately examines his own terrain he may well think that his only option in politics will be to establish himself somewhere between Rudd and the Liberal Party.
He is not a creature of the Liberal Party - having only recently joined after years flirting with Labor.
Turnbull’s involvement in causes like the republic - and his preparedness to bankroll ventures which automatically place him at the top - strongly suggests that starting his own centre-right party would be a relatively easy step to take.
If he still craves an ongoing role in Australian public life - as I suspect he does - then what better way to demonstrate his relevance than by leaving the ‘old’ Liberals to establish the ‘new’ liberals. In doing so he will have an arguable case that he, not Abbott or Minchin represents the Menzies vison for Australia.
The DLP kept Labor out of power for a generation. Turnbull’s actions in the coming days and weeks could determine whether the same fate will befall the Abbott/Minchin Liberal Party.
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