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If it’s not about you PM, who is it about?

David Penberthy

by David Penberthy

18 Aug 02:20pm

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Filed under: Election 2010, Julia Gillard, Kevin Rudd, Labor Leadership

61 comments

One of the more unusual comments of this election campaign was made by Julia Gillard on The 7.30 Report this week when the Prime Minister batted away questions about the personal repercussions of defeat on Saturday.

Fight of her life. Photo: Alan Porritt, Getty Images.

“Oh, this isn’t about me Kerry,” Gillard said. It was a funny remark, and an engagingly selfless one, as it’s hard to envisage anything more personal than serving yourself up to the judgment of the nation in a general election.

Most people who enter politics do not exit politics on their own terms. You can only begin to imagine what the sense of rejection must be like for past leaders, or even no-name backbenchers who have to grapple with the fact that the loss of their seat is effectively a signal from the community that they just don’t like them enough to make them their representative.

The election is obviously very much about Julia Gillard, in the same way it’s very much about Tony Abbott. The style, character and personality of both leaders count for everything in our increasingly presidential election campaigns. And defeat for either candidate means that their future leadership of the party will be revisited immediately after the poll.

With Labor battling to stay ahead in the polls, despite the precision of swing the Coalition requires to win a daunting 17 seats, the nightmare scenario for Labor is that the manner of Julia Gillard’s elevation may have had the effect of destroying not one but two leaders in the space of one brutal coup.

Rudd has obviously been destroyed politically by the events of June 24. Whatever veneer of goodwill has been fabricated through his presence at the campaign launch, or his sham meeting with Gillard a couple of Saturdays ago, completely fails to mask the reality that Caucus does not want him on the frontbench after the election, with many MPs still accusing him of treachery in relation to the leaks against the new Prime Minister.

But if Labor falls short on Saturday, the great irony will be that the manner in which Julia Gillard got the top job also prevented her from keeping it, with the voters’ distaste at the factionally-orchestrated leadership putsch clearly hurting Labor in the polls.

Labor Party figures fear that, in the event of a defeat, Gillard may feel so damaged or be seen as so damaged by the coup and its aftermath that she is no longer a viable leadership option. There is already some muted talk about whether Wayne Swan would be leader, or whether the party would shift immediately to a battle between the next generation, with the desperately ambitious Bill Shorten, a chief plotter of the Rudd coup, likely to battle it out for the leadership against former ACTU secretary Greg Combet.

The polls suggest there is nothing fanciful about this scenario. Should things get to this point, the party’s factional hacks can congratulate themselves not only on destroying the prime ministership of the guy who ended 11 years of conservative rule, but also cruelling the career of our first female prime minister and one of the best parliamentary performers of the modern era.

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61 comments

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    • Brian says:

      02:38pm | 18/08/10

      David no amount of media attacks on Julia Gillard will change the fact the majority of Australians want her to be PM and not the Rabbott. It’s not rocket science!

      Reply

    • Tom says:

      02:56pm | 18/08/10

      Wrong Brian, Green voters don’t realise they are voting for Labor. That’s how Labor could sneak back. Sneakiness is hardly something to brag about.

    • Macca says:

      03:02pm | 18/08/10

      @Brian, but more Australian’s want the Liberal Party to lead the Country than the ALP.

      If there were no preferences, the ALP would not have a chance

    • Brian says:

      03:21pm | 18/08/10

      And if there was no parliament we would not have to vote macca….and your point is?

    • Bria says:

      03:27pm | 18/08/10

      Tom, it matters not a jot about Greens. Have a look a tall polling and track polling. Who would you prefer as PM etc etc. It has never been Rabbott. His propensity to put his foot in his mouth is about to further hurt him tonight no doubt. Australia can’t risk such a person as PM.

    • Brian Taylor says:

      05:11pm | 18/08/10

      Brian we’ll see who the winner is on saturday night mate..thought all people named Brian were smart, you’ve proved me wrong lol

    • Rob r Charteris says:

      05:16pm | 18/08/10

      Macca says:03:02pm; and if the snivelling lib’s didn’t have the Nationals? atleast the ALP govern in their own right

    • MarK says:

      08:52pm | 18/08/10

      “atleast the ALP govern in their own right “

      This just in. Rob C has refused to take ant Green preferences for Labor ... says they can do it themselves.

      Should be fun to watch.

      Hahahahahaha

    • Rae says:

      09:37pm | 18/08/10

      What a load of crap!  Voting Labor you get all that you deserve and more,  you have to be kidding the Socialists and the Watermelon Party….
      Australia will be literally down the toilet if Gillard gets in!

    • Jeremy says:

      08:31am | 19/08/10

      Tom, Liberal voters prob don’t realise they’re preferencing Fundies First.

      That’s what happens when you vote above the line without checking party tickets.

    • Damocles says:

      08:36am | 19/08/10

      Rabbott? Name calling? Why don’t you Laborites grow up!  Are you still in the schoolyard? You are so bloody juvenile! Can’t you come up with something else that isn’t so assinine? For God sake! What is everyone to go, “Oh. Mr. Rabbit, Rabbott, The Mad Monk, budgie smugglers! Well, I’m not voting for him!” Yeah, right. Bloody simpletons!!

    • Mary says:

      02:49pm | 18/08/10

      Well, David no matter how hard you and the press try to negate her campaign, Julia Gillard has proven to be head and shoulders above anyone else on the political scene - and deserves to be Prime Minister of this country.  She has withstood relentless criticism and condemnation by the press, particularly the Murdoch press.

      Reply

    • Tails says:

      02:59pm | 18/08/10

      It’s not about one person. It’s about who can form the best government. If you really think these clowns deserve another chance after the train wrecks they’ve left behind and the lack of responsibility they’ve taken for them, then that’s your opinion. But don’t pretend the office of Prime Minister is like being President of the United States. It’s actually closer to being the Queen of England.

    • Macca says:

      03:07pm | 18/08/10

      @Mary, what particular in this article did you find to be untrue or unfair?

      I don’t remember anyone arguing Abbott wasn’t getting a fair ride when Rudd’s approval ratings where through the roof, or during the first 2 years of his honeymoon. Only now, that the ALP has started to lose its way is the Media biased.

      The ALP don’t deserve re-election, but they will still get it

    • MarK says:

      03:14pm | 18/08/10

      Rubbish Mary.

      The political experts had written of the Liberals for a generation. Abbott was unelectable. The “mad monk” was going to blow up.

      And on it went.

      He has been the star performer in this election campaign which should be no surprise given how he has run the agenda in Australian politics form the oppositions benches since his election to the leadership.

    • The Badger says:

      03:20pm | 18/08/10

      @ Mark
      Rubbish

      I’m a political expert and I believe the coalition will wander in the desert for ten years.

      It will take them that long to get rid of the rubbish that should have been thrown out when Howard was.

    • Barry says:

      03:31pm | 18/08/10

      @The Badger Bahahaha yeah we are all political experts aren’t we?

    • MarK says:

      04:01pm | 18/08/10

      “I’m a political expert and I believe the coalition will wander in the desert for ten years.”

      Gratz mate.

    • Macca says:

      04:02pm | 18/08/10

      @The Badger, if anything, this election will only serve to strengthen the Libs towards the next campaign.

      Furthermore, after the ETS debarcle, how can you expect Julia to perform in parliament with even less of a majority.

      This election will always be more painful for the ALP than for the Libs, and the reason for this is Abbott. For so long everyone, including yourself, has said he is unelectable. For a bloke apparently so pathetic he is making a pretty good run at it. If he can get them this close, imagine what someone with a bit of talent could do.

      Badger, I’m picking an ALP win saturday night, but the next 3 years are going to be a rough ride after what has been a disgraceful first term

    • The Badger says:

      05:12pm | 18/08/10

      @ macca
      I believe you are right, but I am not happy about it.

      I think that with coalition support the parliament could have made a real difference to Australians these last three years.

      I always thought that both parties wanted what was best for Australia.
      It seems like no matter who is in government, the other side carries on like a child instead,of getting over their loss and working toward the betterment of all.

      Nelson was just an interim leader while the liberals licked their wounds.
      When Turnbull took over the leadership the liberals seemed like they were the genuine article. You could see that under Turnbull there was movement towards consensus and real debate.
      With the advent of Abbott, the right wingers scuttled the good will that was building and returned to the politics of no. There was no compromise, just no for the sake of no - and yet, as we sit here now, we see how much the parties policies are the same.

      Could we not put aside this inane political bickering and think about the nation for a change?

      The only time the parties seem to come together is unfortunately when we lose a digger.

    • Brian Taylor says:

      05:16pm | 18/08/10

      @ The Badger, you said that you were a political expert, what makes you a political expert?
      All experts I’ve met so far in my 56 years are usually full of themselves, is that you mate?

    • Robert Smissen, rural SA, God's own country says:

      05:57pm | 18/08/10

      Mary what are you smoking? ? ? This crazy red of the loony left backed Mark Latham for PM in 2004 & then in 2007 backed Little Kevin Crud for PM, I’d write more but everyone here is rolling on the floor laughing at you! !

    • Robert Smissen, rural SA, God's own country says:

      06:01pm | 18/08/10

      @ Badger X is an unknown quantity & spert is a drip under pressure & a badger is an animal that mostly eats roots shoots & leave

    • The Badger says:

      06:11pm | 18/08/10

      @ Barry
      You got it in one.
      There are no bozo’s on this bus called the punch
      @Brian Taylor
      Lighten up, it’s joke.
      We all make claims we can’t back up. We point to articles that support our position or unfortunately blindly support the position of our party.
      When election time comes round, it seems many posters here don’t bother to think and blindly follow their political “how to reply card”. Did it ever occur to you that perhaps neither of the positions is better than the other and the solution lies somewhere in between?

      Men build too many walls and not enough bridges.
      Isaac Newton

    • Reg says:

      09:42pm | 18/08/10

      I want to know where the other half of the Coalition is. We haven’t seen or heard anything from them or about them despite their being presented as a different party.  If they were totally in agreement with the Liberal Party there would be no need to hide in another disguise.

      I think the Liberals are presenting us with a platform that does not cover the National Party. Nor do we hear any clamorous outpourings from the National Party that they being treated as servile vote catchers for the Liberals, yet both are minority parties. Coalition? What Coalition?

    • Samothy says:

      11:49pm | 18/08/10

      I have always voted Labor but this time around the labor party has let the country down both at Federal and State levels. Julia Gillard never wanted to be a PM and yet, she backstabbed the elected PM to become a PM. We need to ask ourselves questions such as:
      What is the guarantee that she’ll survive the full term?
      So far she has acted like a puppet. How do we know that she is not a puppet?
      She has betrayed her own people, how do we know she’ll be loyal to the country?

      Come on aussies, have we become so dumb that we can’t tell the difference between a good person and a bad one?

      This time my vote goes to Liberal as they are more honest and will work harder as they have something to prove.

    • MarK says:

      02:54pm | 18/08/10

      Been saying it all along as well Penbo.

      However I think you missed Option B in any case.

      If Gillard wins this Saturday it will be by a reduced margin. This will be the catalyst to dump her anyway.

      Shorten will be the main antagonist but Combet is the guys with the smarts.

      Gillard has 12 - 18 months if she wins at best.

      If she loses she has 12 - 18 days. Just enough time for Shorten, Feeney Arbib etc to dump all the crap on her and trot her off.

      The Julia of the great performances we were promised has not materialised.

      Tony Abbott has outperformed her on the hustings. She is damaged goods already. It would not have gone unnoticed by the power brokers.

      Reply

    • Front seats says:

      04:55pm | 18/08/10

      Better for Abbott to lose than control Parliament by a sliver.
      If this comes down to a Labor/Green Coalition, we will be back at the polls by February.
      If Abbott holds till then, the Libs will take Govt.
      The only alternative is that Labor gives the Greens everything they want simply to hold the spoils of “government”.
      This will kill the economy stone dead, and bring on the greatest capital strike in history.  Surely no Labor Government would hold on just for the sake of power and the massive privileges that provides for the few?

    • MarK says:

      05:30pm | 18/08/10

      “Surely no Labor Government would hold on just for the sake of power and the massive privileges that provides for the few”

      Your not form NSW are you :(

      Welcome to our everyday experience.

    • Robert Smissen, rural SA, God's own country says:

      06:03pm | 18/08/10

      YEP! ! Sounds right to me

    • John says:

      02:57pm | 18/08/10

      This election is about ME David, not about Julia Gillard or Tony Abbott.
      It is abut all of US, as we will get the government we choose and the government we deserve.
      So please everyone think before you drop your VOTE this election is about YOU!

      Reply

    • Brian Taylor says:

      05:19pm | 18/08/10

      well said mate

    • Jason says:

      03:09pm | 18/08/10

      If it was anyone other than Julia, the BER waste would have ended her career already.  The woman is amazingly arrogant and talks down to the people as though she is somehow better or more knowledgeable.  The constant use of “Obviously” and “Of course” - it would appear Julia knows everything already.  Newsflash Jools - many aussies are pretty switched on and can see through the lies.  you won’t be missed.

      Reply

    • haggis says:

      07:39pm | 18/08/10

      Speaking of ears, seen how Hugh Jarss follows Julie everywhere?

      Sauces, gooses and ganders, eh?

    • Bill says:

      03:22pm | 18/08/10

      The election is not about “me” says Julia, but she make all the attack adds about her opponent Tony

      Reply

    • Phil says:

      03:27pm | 18/08/10

      Personally I recon you should smuggle the vuvuzela you got on tour into tonights debate/whatever it is. As soon as one starts with the bullshit off it should go.

      If thats a bit hard I am sure a few of you have iphones, just get the Vuvuzela app and off you go.

      Reply

    • jb says:

      03:50pm | 18/08/10

      I want to know who has had the largest carbon footprint out of the parties this election.
      I think that would actually mean something to many voters, might even be a game changer!...

      Reply

    • Joe Blow says:

      05:43pm | 18/08/10

      Gillard produces tonnes of CO2 while dribbling on, not answering simple questions put to her by interviewers.  She has produced a staggering 31.7 tonnes uttering the single phrase ‘Moving Forward’.

    • Against the Man says:

      03:57pm | 18/08/10

      Julia needs us to vote her in and validate the hack job she and her men did to KRudd. The question is whether we want to support such a so called leader! She didn’t care about what Australia wanted, why should we care about her?

      Reply

    • Nicki says:

      04:46pm | 18/08/10

      I think that Gillard will win the election,
      Because Andrew Forrest wanted to talk and negotiate about the mining tax with her today.
      Why would you waste talking about tax with someone who will be the PM only for Two more days.
      Forrest know more than he tells us.

      Reply

    • Observer says:

      05:27pm | 18/08/10

      Let’s face it, the fact that a first term government is fighting for its life, facing the real possibility of defeat (according to polls) against an opposition leader described ad nauseaum in the past as ‘unelectable’ is a sobering demonstration that Julia Gillard (fake or real) is not the Great politician Labor wanted to make us believe . Not least because she was an integral part of the government that “had lost its way”.

      Even if Labor wins it will most likely be by a very small margin and this fact alone is proof that JG is not the great savior she claimed to be and, ultimately, proof beyond reasonable doubt that -  irrespective of the formal rules regulating the election of a party leader PM -  the Australian people do not like to see their right to pass judgment being hijacked by a bunch of career politicians in the corridors of political power. 

      Tony Abbott has been a huge surprise to all not least those in Labor itself. I think he’s future as leader of the opposition (in the event of a defeat) is quite possibly guaranteed for at least another election. It will be a case of “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it’.

      Julia Gillard and her government on the other hand (if re-elected) will have to perform brilliantly in the next term to avoid a certain defeat in the next election. The only thing that may save them is their incumbency and the public’s traditional attitude to incumbent governments.

      Reply

    • acotrel says:

      07:56am | 19/08/10

      Tony Abbott has been a huge surprise to all not least those in Labor itself. I think he’s future as leader of the opposition (in the event of a defeat) is quite possibly guaranteed for at least another election. It will be a case of “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it’.

      Along with ‘she’ll be right, mate’!

    • Steve says:

      05:28pm | 18/08/10

      I am hoping for a Liberal win but with all the polls they say Labor will win.

      But if on the off chance Liberal get up, can you imagine the fall out in the
      Labor Party??

      That would be worth the price of admission to see the first caucus meeting of a defeated Labor Goverment!...Go Tony!

      Reply

    • acotrel says:

      07:52am | 19/08/10

      ‘But if on the off chance Liberal get up, can you imagine the fall out in the
      Labor Party??’

        Can you imagine the fall out amongst the general public?

    • Joe Blow says:

      05:46pm | 18/08/10

      As she has said many times:  “The choice is between Tony Abbott and me because I chose to get rid of Kevin (It wasn’t the faceless men it was her choice)”

      Now she says if she loses it’s NOT about her!!  She is either an idiot or else thinks the rest of us are!!!!!

      Reply

    • nosthow says:

      05:49pm | 18/08/10

      There will be no defeat of Labor or Gillard penbo - mark my words. Labor is headed for a comfortable win on Sat. Abbott with no policies and no vision for Australia is a sham. Fancy trying to be PM with no policies or no vision for Australia ! The Mad Monk has only days now left in the limelight before he gets the chop and someone sensible takes over the Liberal Party leadership. Goodbye Tony !

      Reply

    • MarK says:

      09:10pm | 18/08/10

      I like nosthow.

      he always comes in with a humour piece to lighten the day.

    • nosthow says:

      09:27pm | 18/08/10

      @MarK - gday Marky - not long to go now old son - 2 days then Tones is history huh ? Dont forget to get some strong liquor to drown your sorrows come Sat night Marky. But dont worry in 3 years we do it all again !

      Reply

    • MarK says:

      01:07pm | 19/08/10

      Don’t drink at all.

      Not sorrow either. More like bemused wonderment of the power of the spin.

    • brinjak says:

      09:36pm | 18/08/10

      Gillard’s performance since she took over reveals her absolute confidence in the stupidity of the electorate. That is why she speaks so slowly and largely in cliches, so the dum-dums can understand it all. The Parramatta- Epping rail link was the topper on the cake. It has been promised by every Labor politician since Judas Iscariot and we’re still waiting. She may as well offered to develop residential real estate outside Sydney Heads. Filibustering through every question without answering a single one. Amazing she gets away with it.

      Reply

    • Bri says:

      11:24pm | 18/08/10

      Australian politics is becoming increasingly Presidential.  This was evident with Labor leadership challenge and the outcry from voters saying ‘I didn’t vote for Gillard’.  That’s right, in Australia you don’t vote for a president, you vote for a party and their policies and values.  The Kevin ’07 campaign really launched the ‘presidential’ style election in Australia.  The Labor party was so tied to Rudd that when his popularity went down they had to react.  Like it or not the election will always be about the leader, for Julia Gillard to say “it’s not about me” is naive.  In the final lead up to the election the ads from both parties have attacked the leaders rather than focusing on what their policies are.  This election has been about selling a product, Gillard or Abbott and if no one is buying it you can expect Gillard and Abbott will suffer the same fate as Rudd.  Ironically, for an election all about leadership, we have seen very little of it.

      Reply

    • Gerry Sinclair says:

      12:38am | 19/08/10

      Do they let Nosthow out once a day?

      Best result for Australia is Gillard loses, so joins Kevin in no mans land, oops thats not PC,  make that no persons land - Bill Ludwig gets Swan up as opposition leader and consequently he finishes what Rudd started & Gillard has continued, and utterly destroys any credibility they have left, and there is no one with better credentials than Swan to do that!

      Coalition then stays in power for another 12 years, Australia once again becomes a rational, pragamatic, debt free and wealthy country, and that should just about see yours truly time here out., and that is how I would like it to be when I leave.

      Reply

    • Brian Taylor says:

      03:43am | 19/08/10

      @ The Badger I’m sorry if I took you the wrong way mate

      Reply

    • Stewart Henstock says:

      08:01am | 19/08/10

      For me it’s about the incompetency of the NSW Labor Party.
      Allowing a Gillard Labor Government in for a second term allows the same factions that screwed NSW a second term to continue screwing us on a federal level.

      Reply

    • Holly says:

      08:28am | 19/08/10

      Oh dear - how long did it take you to conjure up these whispered conspiracy theories out of nothing.

      I would think there is far more whispering going on in the Coalition camp - Malcolm has reneged on his promised retirement - why?  The coalition partner is playing a very odd game.  We have not seen National’s leader Warren Truss all election except for a glimpse at the launch. We do not know how the coalition feels on a range of issues except we do know that they oppose Tony’s parental leave scheme as do many liberals.

      Last night we saw Tony in action at the forum.  His response to the question on peak oil said it all for me.  How could anyone vote for the man after hearing the garbage he gave for an answer - this was not just a silly response it was one which was dangerous for the future economic and resource planning of our country.

      The coalition is touting it’s “savings” - my surplus is bigger then yours” when they have not had their costings subjected to treasury scrutiny which would have allowed a valid comparison. Their extra surplus is based on pulling the plug on infrastructure -including the NBN and selling Medibank. . They are going to gut the public sector while announcing policies which will require more public sector workers not fewer.

      Tony then went on to another thought bubble - policy on the run again.  I hope the young woman who asked the question about her future employment prospects as a graduate was as underwhelmed as I was by the response she got - credit for volunteer work towards HECS debt.  I think she would prefer a job and Tony has ruled out graduate recruitment in the public service for at least 2 years - how shortsighted.

      What is most frustrating is that commentators in this election have only talked about the soft issues - Tony’s ease with his audience, Tony’s temporary transformation, rather than trying to unpack the guts of his answers - which in many cases have been nonsensical.

      Reply

    • Stewart Henstock says:

      11:19am | 19/08/10

      credit for volunteer work towards HECS debt. 

      Interesting pilot policy….especially by a conservative…..considering it’s an Obama policy rip off

      As for the rest of your babble..consider Labors mounting million dollar a day debt when we roll into recession and you loss your job,your house…your dignity.

    • heather says:

      12:59pm | 19/08/10

      well i’m an environmental scientist with four degrees and i think peak oil is cr*p too. never underesimate human ingenuity, for goodness sake, in the 1700s or so, there was peak WOOD!  not to mention other doom and gloom scenarios, anyone remember that all computers were going to die at the stroke of midnight 1999?

    • Paul Neri says:

      09:52am | 19/08/10

      Julia thinks sauce on meat pies should be free. Why doesn’t she eat her greens?

      Apparently at a Press Club luncheon she tore into a slab of beast but left her greens?

      What kind of a message is that to a nation in the grip of a coronary ! What an insult to the veggie growers of Australia! Meat-eaters cause the climate to change more quickly than non-meat-eaters! And what about the starving millions! Yeah, what about the starving millions, Julia!

      Reply

    • Mouse says:

      10:38am | 19/08/10

      Have you noticed how Labors new catch word is “Positive”... The media has been saying about the campaign’s negativity, so now every time Gillard opens her mouth about 5 “positives” fall out every sentence. She has to be one of the most annoying things to listen to…up there with mosquitoes and fingernails down the blackboard. I can’t believe some people are still actually talking about voting her and Labor back in.  Let’s hope they come to their senses before then!

      Reply

    • Amber says:

      11:36am | 19/08/10

      If Labor gets in -should their leader move into the Lodge?  How long can they count on staying there and have they budgeted for removalists. Perhaps a whole new portfolio would be in order - could support at least another 200 jobs I’d say.  Unlike Penny Wong’s 200-strong staff, they’d have something to do.

      Reply
 
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