IT’S not just that Health Minister, Nicola Roxon has acknowledged that taxes may need to increase to fund Labor’s health policy in the longer-run. Or, that Treasurer Wayne Swan has admitted a full federal take-over of the nation’s 764 public hospitals could yet be pursued.

Aside from the hip pocket, where does it hurt?

Such frankness should be welcomed in our political leaders. It’s just that in both cases, the comments underscore the fact that in complex reforms, there is many a slip `twixt policy cup and delivery lip.

Put another way, there is a huge distance and many hurdles between Kevin Rudd’s radical health reform promise, and the tangle of changes needed to make things better for patients. Those ``slips’’ are already apparent.

Like the fact that the states will have to agree to hand back somewhere in the ball-park of $90 billion from their sacred GST river of gold. WA and Victoria have flagged major resistance and both SA and Tasmania could yet baulk if the voters opt for change in state polls.

Then there’s the Australian Senate. The closeted red chamber pilloried by Paul Keating as ``unrepresentative swill’’ is already twitching in anticipation of another chance to frustrate the will of the people’s house. The Opposition wants nothing of K Rudd’s 60 per cent federal take-over and will use its senators to that end. The cross benches too are always eager to block the elected government.

That paragon of rigour and consistency, Steve Fielding, elected on 1.88 per cent of the primary vote in 2004 (what did that wafer-thin mandate have to do with the current government’s program anyway?) has indicated he is unfavourably inclined. True to form, he issued a rejection before reading the policy detail - unless he is a speed reader which, by his own admission, he is not.

Ironically, one of Fielding’s more famous malapropisms, that he was ``torn between two places and a hard rock,’’ actually now applies rather well to Kevin Rudd’s current dilemma.

The health reform plan, and therefore Mr Rudd’s own plight, are floating between a set of probably unbridgeable positions. Some of that is the Government’s fault and some is not. The fact that the massive plan has been dropped like a depth charge into the febrile atmosphere of a federal election year is significant because it has not only changed the sense of what is possible, it has also raised suspicions that the announcement is not so much an attempt at a health policy as it is an attempt at a re-election strategy. Hence there is a tension between the merits of the plan versus the motives behind it.

This kind of cynicism, which is running hot in the media at present, is regrettable because it has obscured a proper assessment of a policy which clearly has merit. Yet the Government can hardly complain because not only has it dictated the timing of the announcement but, on such matters, it has form. After all, the policy is late by about 8 months against the promised deadline for its release of mid-2009. Several state elections are further complications - two of them underway right now in SA and Tasmania, and another due in Victoria at the end of the year.

These factors were all known knowns (to borrow from Rumsfeld) and have made sober consideration and acceptance of the policy less, not more likely. Going by the signals coming from the states, there seems no chance of all of them coming on board by the deadline of April 11, the date of the next Council of Australian Governments meeting.

Victoria’s Labor Government believes it already runs Australia’s best system which is decentralised with local boards, and already uses activity based funding. So it is struggling to see where the new deal makes things better for Victorians. The state’s Health Minister, Daniel Andrews says there is no new money for the state for four years.

WA’s Liberal government remains hostile and is unlikely to warm to anything that will make it easier for federal Labor. This may not have been such a problem had the policy been dropped out last year and safely away from the federal poll. As one observer said, Premier Colin Barnett will probably run interference for Mr Abbott just as Labor states did for Kevin Rudd before the 2007 election.

Perhaps most telling though is that on his first full day of selling the plan, Kevin Rudd, the man who won on a platform of cooperative federalism, began lashing the states and warning openly that they would fight hard to protect their patches. His unmistakable message? `I stand for the public interest, they stand for their own interests.’ Hardly conciliatory.

Mr Rudd’s defenders rightly point out that he had always promised a referendum if the states proved uncooperative so he is just doing what he said he’d do. True enough, but taking more than two years to tumble out the policy and less than two days to start wedging the states, smacks of being just a little too inclined to the fight over the result. Besides, if it is good enough for him to take the time to get it right, as he likes to say, it is unreasonable to deny them time to consider the detail and the implications.

Even if the states can be wrangled into some kind of acceptance, the Senate looks set to frustrate enabling legislation slated for this year. All of which adds up to no material progress and the prospect of the partial take-over plan forming the spine of the 2010 re-election campaign. Yet even here there are traps.

Some in Labor are already drawing parallels with the emissions trading scheme debacle likening the sheer complexity and glacial pace of the health reform to the ETS and to known shortcomings in the PM’s communications skills. The early signs suggest these fears may be well placed.

Kevin Rudd clearly wants to go with a back to basics health and education agenda in 2010. He is half-way there. Education has emerged as a genuine strength although that’s more down to the high-achieving Julia Gillard than the PM.

On health, the extra money pumped in has been substantial including billions on new cancer wards and a whopping 50 per cent increase in the Commonwealth’s end of the current 5 year healthcare funding agreement with the states. But the main game of fixing the public hospitals as promised in 2007, remains unfulfilled. Kevin Rudd has left it very late to kick that argument off but its one he must now win.

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    • persephone says:

      07:19am | 06/03/10

      Mark, kudos.

      Rudd was more than a little terse with you at the National Press Club luncheon.

      Given your past posts here, I would not have been surprised if you had bagged out the health policy.

      Instead, you have risen above the personal to write a balanced and well thought out article.

      Congratulations.

    • preciouspress says:

      08:28am | 06/03/10

      The fundamental question is - does Australia need health reform? If the answer is yes then what policy options are available. I’m only aware of one. Most journalists not only savour the fights ahead but seek to provoke them. Few of them are at pains to provide proper perspective and context.
      As to the 7 months delay the same journo’s are quick to label this a ‘broken promise’ of an incompetent government. Rarely if ever do they concede that implementation of the economic stimulus package might have delayed the introduction of this and other policies initiatives.
      Oh that the press gallery would report and analyse the facts rather than forever anticipate and forecast failure.

    • Bigfish says:

      08:29am | 06/03/10

      Wasn’t Kevin Rudd one of those state health bureaucrats? Dr Death I believe.
      Kevin has had his chance already to fix Queensland Health, and where is it at today. More blah, blah…...

    • thatmosis says:

      09:25am | 06/03/10

      Not only has Gunna Krudd left it late but his own ministers are undermining him at every turn. “Taxes may have to be increased” from Roxon which in Pollie speak is “Taxes will be raised to pay for this initiative” has had Gunna going on the defensive from the start and now the State Governments are crying foul. This Government now named the Labor Government should have a name change to the “DOH” Government as this is what we hear day in and day out as they lurch from one disaster to another. Gunna should remember that most of the States that have let the hospitals run down so badly were governed by the Labor Party and people are asking how one Labor Party who destroyed the Hospital System is any better than another Labor Party who have not got anything right since coming to power will be any better.

    • Richard Ure says:

      04:50pm | 06/03/10

      Knowing clever commentators will jump on her, Nicola Roxon should be praised for raising the possibility of higher taxes at this stage of the debate instead of pilloried or sniggered at by commentators desperate for a glib headline.

      Australians would be well advised to follow the lunacy of the health care debate in the US. If anyone suggests raising taxes there (to pay for benefits they have already received), the full guns come out as opponents call on the views of the founding fathers to make their case for less federal government involvement much less a universal health system.

      Meanwhile those same commentators and the readers, whose view of the world they inform, pay much more in private insurance premiums for an inferior service they can lose at the drop of a hat, and feel vindicated in living the capitalist dream.

    • persephone says:

      09:34am | 06/03/10

      Wasn’t Tony Abbott some sort of Federal Minister? Minister for Health, I believe.

      Tony has had his chance to fix the Australian health system, and where is it today? Still lost in the bush.

      But don’t worry. He has a two word solution for health….and no, I don’t mean ‘no worries’.

    • Dingo says:

      02:50pm | 07/03/10

      The only reason Health has become a Federal issue is because the some of the State Govts have completely lost the plot.

      Anyone who works in a Public hospital in NSW knows the system really started to fall over when the Area Health Services were established and began sucking money out of front line services to pay bureaucrats.  Qld has the same problem. Nothing will improve in these states until these boards are demolished and decision making returned to local hospital boards.

      If you want to fix the system you need to start with the actual problem, of too many leeches sitting behind desks and not enough doctors, nurses and cleaners.

    • Fog Badger says:

      10:21am | 06/03/10

      There are some good aspects to the proposal, but details are lacking.

      My main concern at this point is the government’s ability to manage this change, given the balls-up over the insulation scheme. Rudd seems to be rushing this and if he believes he has all the information on hand to fight for change, he may well miss something big. I hope he doesn’t micromanage this one!

    • Nicki says:

      01:31pm | 06/03/10

      The question is do we want best Health Care system or not?
      If yes then it will cost , who is going to pay for it Mr Howard from his own money or Mr Abbott?
      At some stage if tax has to go up or Medicare Levi to go up to pay for the service we want so be it.
      If we don’t want any Public Health and Hospital Services and Medicare than let sell it and spend the money on beer and honey.
      At the moment the State and Federal Governments blame each other for very poor state of hospitals and other health services and before the elections they promise us gold and anything we ask for . Once the elections are over they start the blaming game all over.
      It is time that there is one Government responsible and accountable ,so we can kick them out if they don’t deliver what is promised.
      Something has to be done to fix the problem now.
      If we don’t star now then when?

    • Evan Findlay says:

      04:31pm | 06/03/10

      Mark I think we also need to realise and accept that, whilst not an excuse, the GFC has preoccupied the well intentioned reforms of the Rudd Government. I have no qualms over the health policy being eight months later than first announced and i’m glad that parties with a vested interest in the formulation of health policy were consulted. And I hope their opinions will be continually sort.
      I believe too that should the states refuse to relinquish their control over the health system then rather than have a referendum on the actual takeover, lets go one step further and have a referendum on abolishing state governments.  The money saved from duplication of government services would easily pay for increases in future health budgets. I also believe this would have enormous support within the electorate.

      And as for Steve Fielding, could those in his electorate please wake up to yourselves. When Paul Keating spoke of unrepresentative swill he was referring to the likes of Steve.

    • Max Power says:

      05:25pm | 06/03/10

      More wah wah wah I have sand in my underpants from Rudd. Lets throw around more wild promises on top of the other wild promises we made. I just wish once, just once, that Kevin Rudd would actually shut up and deliver. This govt is the worst ever, every answer either involves a new tax or levy,  or another talk fest, which ends up providing one of the Labor/Union hacks a cushy well paid job. I guess this is what you get when the country is being run by a party made up of 70% Union hacks. Rudd didn’t deliver on his election promise to take over the health system after 18 months, if the states failed to improve. This policy is just a recycled version of that policy, Rudderly Ruddiculous. More hot air from the walking bag pipe.

    • Evan Findlay says:

      06:35pm | 06/03/10

      Thanks Max for your intellectual insight into a problem that has spanned twenty years. Also it’s wonderful to find someone from the conservative side of politics with such detailed and costed alternatives to Rudd’s health policy. The opposition health minister, whoever he or she is, has certainly led from the front on this issue. it’s refreshing to see the policy initiative of the opposition.I for one cannot hide my absolute joy that the coaliton have set the bar on health reform so high. I take my hat off to you!

    • persephone says:

      07:07pm | 06/03/10

      Well, I haven’t seen one policy from the Liberals which hasn’t involved higher spending. The only difference is that they won’t say where the money is going to come from to pay for their promises - and given how few they are, you wouldn’t think it was much of a challenge.

      But no.

      Let’s look at them;

      Direct Inaction on Climate change - lots of extra government spending; the creation of a new bureaucracy, the Green Army, subsidies for solar power, incentives for business to become greener, tree planting, research into various carbon emission reducing technologies, pilot projects to create ‘solar cities’ - all with a hefty price tag.

      To be paid for by ???  No comment.

      Education. We’re apparently going to fund the full cost of any student, no matter how wealthy they are, as long as they do a bit of token work in the meantime, whilst also adopting Labor’s reforms, which means an extra billion to be spent in this area.

      To be paid for by? No comment.

      Private health. We’re not going to cut the private health rebate, because that would break an election promise, and the Liberals couldn’t let Labor do that (despite voting to break election promises they themselves made).

      And the Liberals will add another level of bureaucracy by appointing local boards to each hospital. That’ll also cost money.

      To be paid for by—- ? No comment.

      The Liberals have opposed every cost saving measure that has been put before the Senate, yet keep whining about reducing debt.

      There is a word to describe this kind of behaviour, but I’ll let you work it out for yourselves.

    • susie says:

      08:50pm | 06/03/10

      ‘the walking bagpipe’ - good one Max, I like that !  Can I use it too, or have you patented it ?    grin

    • Max Power says:

      05:59pm | 07/03/10

      I couldn’t care less about what the liberals are offering at the moment. If I was them I would keep quiet otherwise Labor will steal their policies again. That is why the wheels have fallen off the Labor party wagon, they can’t copy the Liberal policies, all though they are giving it a good shot with their latest promise to fix the health system. Just like all other Labor promises this will be broken to and conveniently blamed on the states. The Liberals win because they opposed the Enormous Tax Scam, the scam Ruddy needs to pay off his record debt in record time. What an economic conservative he is, yet another lie, he is spending like a drunken sailor. Sorry Mr Rudd, you are out of touch. The problem with Rudd is, you just don’t know which of his multi personalities you are voting for.

    • Max Power says:

      06:07pm | 07/03/10

      Evan: Thank you for jumping to the conclusion that I am from the conservative side politics and that I, a non-politician is some how responsible for the Liberals policies and costings.  You my friend have gone in half cocked and made a full cock of yourself. I am not a conservative, but someone who dislikes all the personalities of Kevin Rudd and can see through all the BS that spews from his mouth. He has failed to deliver on all of his election promise bar two, the two feel good promises that amount to very little. Clearly the labor party has not costed all their promises and policies because if they did, we wouldn’t be in record debt in record time. Sorry Mr Rudd’s, you are spending like drunken sailors, you’re just out of touch!

    • Francis Forbes says:

      01:46pm | 08/03/10

      Rubbish, Rudd has a good plan, we just need Keneally, Bligh, Brumby,
      Barnett, Bartlett to tow the line. After all he did an excellent job with Qld health. Why not let him lose on a national front…what can go wrong?

    • Scot says:

      09:49pm | 06/03/10

      Rudd and Roxon are desperate for a win. They will blame the states and anyone that stands in their way. They will then turn around and use the public as their bundies to try and get this through. Yet again we have not information of how this will be done and what it will cost. The system may be broken, but it will be buggered if Rudd and Roxon get their hands on it. They cannot be trusted. If they cannot manage ETS and Batts etc, etc. then they no hope in managing this one. It will result in Tax after Tax as Rudd is trying to say well the states refused so I need your vote and then he will say well voters you gave me a mandate to fix and it is now going to cost you more to fix as I need to hire another 50,000 administrators to handle this and the administrators already in place we cannot fire them as they are covered under New Work Choices?, so pay up and shut up as you all signed up for another of my follies.

    • persephone says:

      06:31am | 07/03/10

      Haven’t read the speech or any of the media reports, have you, Scot? The information is all out there.

      I’m not sure what you’re referring to specifically by ‘how this will be done and what it will cost’ - we know how the health plan will be implemented and the costs have been put on the table, so I’m assuming you’re talking about the takeover from the States.

      If so, then the costs of running the system will be exactly the same as those proposed under the scheme at present. The Feds will take back even more of the GST from the States to cover some of this.

      Rudd has made it very clear that more administrators will not be required, and those working in the system at present may be required to relocate to where the work is (at the network level). As a bureaucrat himself, he will have a good understanding of what’s required.

      Most people, when surveyed, make it perfectly clear they’re willing to pay more taxes for better services. However, this may not be necessary as there are a lot of savings which can be made within the health system if it is run on a more rational basis than it is at present.

      So, for example, the government is taking over primary care. At the moment, a lot of patients by pass the primary care system and to straight to hospital - either because they can’t get into their doctor’s and go straight to ER, or because they haven’t been able to afford primary care and have let their condition deteriorate until they are sick enough to need hospitalisation.

      If better primary care services result in fewer patients entering hospital, you’ve saved a heap right there.

      Also, the present system encourages duplication of services (one set provided by State, the one by Fed). In quite small towns, you can find that there are a number of organisations delivering exactly the same service and all demanding money from the taxpayer to do so.

      Finally, this duplication encourages cost shifting between the State and Feds (even though the cost is not shifted for the taxpayer, who pays regardless).  Again, if the same service is being delivered by a number of providers, and one is being paid to do so by the State and the other by the Feds, one tier of government is going to try and persuade you to use the other’s services.

      Getting rid of this multiple service delivery will save a lot of money.

      Having health providers working together on a regional basis will provide them with economies of scale when ordering supplies, hiring staff and so on. They’ll also be able to direct resources to where they are needed, rather than having these lie idle.

      A set fee for service, as proposed, will also encourage efficiencies. At the moment, in some health systems, there is little or no incentive to consider costs when delivering services. Under this, there is an incentive to deliver services more cheaply, as hospitals will get to save the difference between the cost of the service to them and the government payment for that service.

      So - to sum up - there are a lot of potential savings in the system.

      BTW, if the proposed system is going to cost more in tax, then so will any method of delivering health. Health costs are rising and will continue to do so. Governments will only be able to continue to meet these costs by raising taxes or by cutting services.

      At least this proposal looks at how these rising costs can be reined in.

    • Bella says:

      09:22pm | 07/03/10

      You’re a crack up persephone,

      Why is it when Rudd suggests a whole new layer of boards with no funding attached, you say it’s okay… Rudd’s speech guarenteed there won’t be more bureaucrats. Easy. (Presumably Health Depts will form existing staff into boards and forcibly relocate/train them, somehow, at no cost.).
      Yet when Abbott suggests exactly the same thing, you blow the whistle:
      “And the Liberals will add another level of bureaucracy by appointing local boards to each hospital. That’ll also cost money.

      To be paid for by—- ?”

      Both Rudd and Abbott are telling porkies…

    • Super D says:

      04:42am | 07/03/10

      What we have here is a Clayton’s health takeover.  The split changed from 40:60 to 60:40.  No end to the blame game over funding or responsibilities.  IMO the key test of a federal takeover is whether the states continue to have health departments and health ministers with any sort of responsibility.  If they do then the takeover hasn’t gone far enough.  Under a proper federal takeover all health workers presently employed by the states will become commonwealth employees. 

      At this stage the supposed federal takeover looks like a reorganisation of the deckchairs by the same ALP spindoctors that made NSW the way it is today.

    • Diamantina Dick says:

      08:16pm | 07/03/10

      The health takeover is set up to fail.  Rudd can say “we tried but, guess what? It was really really hard and the States would not let us proceed, sorry, we tried, punish them, just like you were going to do anyway, but don’t blame me”.  Zero result, again.

      Value your vote.

    • David B says:

      09:35am | 08/03/10

      Correct, Rudd knows full well that it wont get up.  This is a strategic move by Labor to shift the focus off the insulation debacle.  The ALP have also recognised that ETS was quickly losing public support so they dropped it and turned to health as their springboard.  When the health proposal fails Rudd will then be able to distance himself from the states.

    • Pharmg269 says:

      06:07pm | 01/04/10

      Hello! gaeebbd interesting gaeebbd site!

 

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